A few quantitative tidbits:
President's job approval rating by low information voters who backed Boss Chaos in 2024 (by 6 points): minus 27%
Approval rating by more informed voters who backed Kamala Harris (by 1%): minus 24%
According to at least two polls, the top campaign issue in 2026: corruption.
Top campaign issue for self-described undecided voters: inflation
Percentage of Americans who agree that Boss Chaos is "a dangerous dictator whose power should be limited before he destroys American democracy": 58%
Percentage who believe Chaos will not accept outcome of election: 70%
Percentage drop in new job creation this year in revised figures versus original announcements: 90%
Percentage increase in price of crude oil since Chaos started Iran war: 60%
Snapshot: Maine
Nights are getting colder in Maine as October ends. Home heating oil prices there have risen 74% this year. For at least some, it costs $1800 to fill their home heating oil tank, and it often takes filling it more than once in a winter. The state agency that helps with heating oil costs has announced that the demand is already so high, they won't have enough to help everyone who needs it. Parts of Maine get cold enough to kill, and this winter is expected to be very cold.
Maine has voted for a Democrat for President, sometimes (as in 2020) the same year that they vote for a Republican for Senate. They had a tradition of independent-minded Republican Senators (often women), including the current Senator Susan Collins. But Sarah Longwell's focus groups of Mainers who voted for Kamala Harris and in the past for Susan Collins, are reluctantly done with her.
Maine is suffering from the costs of home heating oil resulting from the foolish war against Iran, and from the tariffs, especially with the country right over what was known for years as the longest undefended border in the world, their friends in Canada. ICE shot an innocent person in Maine just months ago. People are angry.
President Obama channeled this sentiment in his campaign speech in Ohio: "After two years of chaos and cruelty and corruption and incompetence, the likes of which we have not seen in the modern era, you get a chance to say, ‘Enough is enough.'” Maine seems poised to take this opportunity.
Susan Collins is perceived as no longer effectively independent, and too much in line with Chaos. That combined with her age looks like it will lead to her mandatory retirement. She is likely the last of that Maine institution, the principled independent Republican.
There wasn't much enthusiasm expressed in this group for the Democratic candidate Troy Jackson. But he surprised many (including--one assumes--Susan Collins) by doing well in the debates, except for a moment of un-Maine rudeness towards Collins. Well enough to assure voters they wouldn't make a terrible mistake in voting for him.
Snapshot: the Midwest
Apart from the formerly "Blue Wall" states of the upper Midwest, the expanse that used to be called the Corn Belt has been heavily Republican for a generation or more. But winters get cold there, too. The cost of heating homes in the winter, plus fuel use particular to farm economies, are causing hardship and suffering. Each of the states of Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska are hit by particular aspects of the tariffs as well. Iowa is suffering from high rates of cancers attributed to chemicals in agricultural runoff. Kansas farms suffer from labor shortages caused by ICE rampages. Nebraska is upset by the Chaos betrayal of importing beef to compete with theirs. All of these are issues working against Republicans.
Democrats in Iowa have two superior candidates: Rob Sand for governor and Josh Turek for Senate. Right now Sand is considered likely to be elected, with Turek running behind a couple of points in the polls. Kansas Democratic Senate candidate Adam Hamilton is said to be running even in his race so far. In Nebraska, Independent candidate Dan Osborn is often polling even with the incumbent Senator. If the prevailing mood of the electorate is what it seems to be--anger at what Chaos has done--then these candidates should benefit from the last week, and so have a very good chance.
Ohio has been reliably Republican since the Obama presidency. But the state did elect Democrat Sherrod Brown to the Senate before turning him out in 2024. Now they may elect him again. Data center incursions have emerged as the surprise issue of 2026, especially in rural states and rural areas of states like Ohio, where they are a particular issue in this race. Until this past week, it seemed that Brown might help bring Democrat Amy Acton into the governorship. But after the huge backfire of a despicable campaign ad by the GOP candidate, it may be the other way around: Acton may help Brown's election.
The upper Midwest of blue and purple states is paradoxically making Democrats nervous. The Minnesota Senate race is polling closer than it should, but I find it hard to believe that the state that beat back an ICE invasion will elect a Republican in the end. In Michigan, the test may be whether enough demagogic prejudice against a Muslim will prevail against an articulate but controversial candidate in a state that is not pleased with Chaos at all.
Snapshot: Texas and Florida
These are the backbone of the MAGA Republican party, which at this point is the GOP heart and soul. In Florida, Democrat David Jolly may be poised to take the governorship, and the Senate race is uncomfortably close for Republicans in the polls. In Texas, Senate candidate James Talarico is running an excellent campaign, and seems to be gaining support every day. Enthusiasm is high, as is early voter turnout in Democratic areas. I think he's going to win, and it will be earthshaking. He may even bring with him a Democrat for governor.
Snapshot: the South
Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia has been the star of this campaign so far, and Democratic Senate candidate Roy Cooper has more quietly dominated polls in North Carolina. Both are expected to win big.
With one week to go, Democratic candidates for the Senate are shockingly close in the polls in South Carolina and Mississippi. Black turnout so far is up in Texas and in these southern states. Both of these states are possible, and I'd bet in particular on South Carolina. Apart from anti-Chaos anger, these and other races benefit by the Democrats having good candidates, and the Republicans having ineffective or--as in Ken Paxton in Texas--candidates so corrupt and repugnant that not even the Bush family can hold their noses and vote for them.
The outcomes in the South in particular may depend on momentum continuing to build in this final week. But many of these races depend on who votes and who doesn't. That's why Boss Chaos went to Mississippi and other deep Red states, attempting to goose depressed Republicans into voting. His relatively small venues have not been full. His bullshit works until it doesn't.
