Nothing much that I've seen--in the latest polling or reputable reporting--suggests there's been any change in momentum. If anything, the opposite--the anti-Republican momentum is strengthening.
Beyond the head-to-head Senate poll numbers, which typically show increased leads for Dems or the Dem getting closer or tied--there are a few other polling indications that caught my eye. The generic preference (R or D) continues to be exceptionally strong for Dems, in the 9 to 10 point range. One pollster however added House candidate names, and the D generic lead went up to 12 points. It is this high number, together with preference polls, that increases confidence that Dem candidates can win in states that went R for prez by 10 points or more in 2024. Which is why Senate seats in Kansas, Iowa, Texas, Alaska, South Carolina and Mississippi are also in play--together with other factors like candidate quality.
The other indicator that supports something I cited last time--that "low information" voters actually disapprove of Chaos more than those who correctly answered key questions. This data point analysis concludes that Democratic low propensity voters (voters who don't usually vote) are voting early at a much higher rate than their Republican-registered counterparts (in states where parties are identified by official data.)
So even considering the usual caveats about the unknowns of early voting v. election day etc. as well as polling error, the big picture continues to look better and better for Democrats to take the House and the Senate, plus an eventual majority of governorships, and so on down the line. That doesn't mean however that in individual races, Democrats aren't undermining themselves, as usual. The Michigan Senate campaign and to a lesser extent the Texas Senate campaign are being marred by continued bad blood between primary opponents, threatening party solidarity. The Alaska Senate campaign is getting unpleasant publicity over a late October story asserting that members of the Democrat Mary Peltola campaign recruited an unknown with the same name as the Republican incumbent, and he got on the ballot.
How much will these matter? Polls suggest that most voters have made up their minds--and many millions have already voted. In themselves these stories are unlikely to matter. Every indicator says that most voters are voting with big issues in mind, especially ones that affect their survival. But the difference in these potentially close elections is going to be who shows up to vote and who does not. Anything that dampens Democratic turnout or juices Republican turnout can have effects. Though it is possible, it still seems unlikely to me that they will change the outcome, and all three Democrats will win. But Alaska is interesting also for other reasons.
Snapshot: Alaska
Alaska is still America's frontier. Little polling, and even less reporting, emerges from its great distances and typically small communities. In the past, Alaska has been as reliable an R in presidential elections as Hawaii has been a D. But in the latest polls, the Democratic candidate for governor is substantially ahead, and the Democratic candidate for the Senate--Mary Peltola--is slightly ahead. If all that plays out, something is happening which might turn out to be realignment, or the product of a few specific politicians, or a mix of both.
Lisa Murkowski is the better known Senator from Alaska, often paired with Susan Collins as the more independent Republicans in the Senate--and she isn't up for reelection this year. She lost a Republican primary in 2010 to a Tea Party candidate but ran as a write-in, and won. She's been reelected twice since.
She's made news twice in the past week or so. When the minions of Boss Chaos went to court requesting that the Alaska election results be set aside if Mary Peltola won, because of the presence of two Dan Sullivans on the ballot (though one is clearly marked as the Republican incumbent, and the other ain't), Murkowski criticized the DOJ suit. This prompted Boss Chaos to fulminate in one of his endless vicious posts that she is a disgrace and the worst R Senator etc. Soon after that, Murkowski endorsed the Democratic candidate for governor of Alaska.
At that point, some speculated that Murkowski might finally make the jump from R to D. It was noted that she is personal friends with Mary Peltola, and their political positions are similar. She has clearly been uncomfortable with Chaos. She did vote for the notorious Big Ugly Bill after getting concessions for Alaska to continue wind and solar projects. Shortly after the vote, Boss Chaos cancelled those projects anyway.
Then came the New York Times story, and Murkowski then joined in the R chorus demanding investigations of this somewhat novel but hardly unprecedented ballot stacking ploy. (She also demanded that Peltola address the issue, and Peltola went on record saying she knew nothing about it.) It seems the source--and perhaps the architect of it--was a former staffer who was recently fired.
But this has put a crimp in the speculation (and probably in a Peltola endorsement), at least for now. However one reason Murkowski has cited for staying R is fear of retribution from Boss Chaos. If this election goes as predicted, his power will be greatly diminished. If the Ds need one more Senator for a majority--either because they underperformed in the election, or the much rumored defection by a certain Pennsylvania Democratic Senator occurs--she would herself be in a powerful position.
