Reign of Chaos: Act II Preview

Soviet Russia in the 1990s

This has happened to me more than once recently:  I'm coming out of an involving dream, not yet awake but becoming aware that what I've just experienced was in a dream, not reality, with a sense of relief.  Then I am jolted awake by the sudden awareness of what reality looks like these days, more dangerous and unreal than a nightmare.  And that's what it feels like: a waking nightmare.

"Every day since January 20 has felt like utter chaos," begins a summation signed by the New York Times Editorial Board. On April 29, Democratic members of the US Senate held the floor potentially through the night for a discussion backgrounded by the logo "100 Days of Chaos."

One way I look at this reign of Chaos emerges from my days as a theatre columnist and erstwhile membership in the Dramatists Guild: I see it as a three-act play.  The first act--comprised of the first 100 days--is coming to a close.  Alas there is probably no intermission before the Second Act begins, and it is a much longer one--it won't end until November 2026. However the congressional elections turn out--whether they are truly elections at all--will set the stage for Act III, the final act of this drama.

The three act structure is also employed in movies and more loosely in television, so Act I can be seen as a version of Orwell's Nineteen Eighty-Four (with a Justice Department oozing  injustice, a Health department degrading health, and now a Civil Rights division zealously attacking civil rights) crossed with a satire of The Godfather as directed by Stanley Kubrick in full Doctor Strangelove mode, but including scenes of real tragedy that foreshadow conflicts in future Acts.

Creating the characters would have challenged even Kubrick: an Attorney General named Pam and a director of Homeland Security called Kristi, both seemingly qualified mostly by their appeal to the roving eye of Boss Chaos, along with their clinging loyalty and vicious robotic tongues.  

Not long ago a hint that a Cabinet aspirant had once inhaled some cannabis fumes would cause a scandal, but here we have a Health Secretary who was (or is) an admitted heroin addict, and a Secretary of Defense who was (or is) a notorious fall-down drunk and sexual predator.  An Education Secretary qualified by her years of organizing fake violence for sweaty World Wrestling entertainment leads a list of those running powerful government bureaucracies with none of the usual qualifications or experience. They alone are living definitions of tragi-comedy.  Just for a moment stage in your head a Kubrick-directed cabinet meeting, headed by Boss Chaos who proclaims, "I run the country and the world."  

Kubrick could also deliver not only the degradation and stupidity but the tragic edge--for instance the updated Gestapo that may or may not be ICE.  But he might need Don DeLillo to write the character (and make up the absurd name) of Elon Musk.  

But enough about Act I.  We've all seen it as it rushed by in--what was that word the Times and the Senate Dems used?   Oh yeah: Chaos.  Also it presented lawlessness, racism, open corruption, institutionalized cruelty and callousness, and more destruction to nearly every institution, principle and facet of America than any enemy nation could have dreamed of wreaking, and none could ever accomplish.  We see a federal government being run as a cartoon criminal enterprise. 

If tragic history is repeated as farce, does the opposite apply? Does this tragic farce become utter tragedy?  That's one of the questions to be answered in Act II.

So maybe now's the time for that novel concept, a spoiler alert. No one knows what horrors and insanity await, but here are some possible plot points and dramatic questions for Act II...

Soviet Russia

Act II will inevitably be characterized by consequences of actions taken in Act I.  The tariffs are already wrecking the economy at the level of business planning, which is resulting in shrinking inventories and orders as well as the beginning of layoffs. 

 In summer the tourist industry will feel the effects of both fewer foreign tourists and less travel by Americans.  By fall one of the plotlines will likely be panic over the Christmas shopping season, with fewer imports, empty shelves and higher prices.  By the first of the year if not before, the economy could well be in deepening recession.  

Chaos will have spread to other countries, and politics in the US will be feverish.  Some time in the Second Act, perhaps sooner rather than later, the Supreme Court will have to deal head-on with the refusal of Boss Chaos to obey court orders, including its own.

Other possible consequences will have their moments.  The cumulative effects of the blind destruction of federal support and capacity to respond to both routine needs and sudden crisis may well show up, often in lots of individual stories of economic and health hardships and life-changing injustices, or more widely shared stories of disasters and epidemics.

  An international and/or military challenge could dangerously expose the incompetence and inexperience, intemperance and emotional instability of decision-makers--and here we are in real Doctor Strangelove territory with the potential to literally stop the show.  

But in addition to consequences of Act I, there will be new and perhaps bigger actions by Boss Chaos and his minions, furthering their lawless power grabs and dictatorial powers.  Already there are fears that the next step in the Hitler playbook will be taken--after establishing ICE or whatever entity it really is that sends masked bullies to brutalize people as the Chaos Gestapo, that next step is Chaos deploying US Armed Forces within American borders and against American citizens.  Meanwhile the data stolen by the Muskovites might be combined in a massive database (and if their many examples inept inaccuracy as well as ICE's continues, leading to many tragic mistakes) that will weaponize Big Brother and then some.  

Public demonstrations in Act I were widespread and eloquent, as well as peaceful and even playful. They were like big production numbers in a musical.  These almost inevitably will change, especially if they seem not to be having the desired effects (through not only administration intransigence but congressional Republican cowardice), and especially as Chaos continues to escalate.  Resistance could become more disruptive, maybe even massively disruptive, which may result in Chaos unleashing his Gestapo, his paramilitary gangs he saved from prison, and even the US Army doing ostensible "crowd control."  

Resistance on other levels will need to involve combined efforts within institutions of civil society, education, science, the economy and the law.  State and local governments could form alliances, as some already are, and take bolder action.  There are few precedents for how this would look in America, so a certain creativity as well as courage, resolve and leadership will need to emerge.  If it does, Act II could be quite a show.

All of this will culminate as Act II draws to a close with its major dramatic question:  Will Chaos have successfully manipulated the electoral system to deny a fair vote in congressional elections?  Will there even be elections?  

By then we may know the nature of this play.  It certainly has tragic events in it already, but will it be a total tragedy?  Will there be even the possibility of some redemption in Act III?  

Many playwrights have found that the Second Act is the hardest to write.  In this play it may well be the hardest to live through.  And considering what living through the First Act has been like, that's saying something.

But since we're characters in this play, we need to plan ahead.  The First Act was a blitzkreig on reality. But now we've seen it, and we can anticipate what might come next. If we're going to take any part of control in Act II, we need to do that: anticipate and plan what will we do in particular circumstances.  We need to write our own lines, script our own actions, often with fellow spear carriers and members of the chorus.  We aren't going to awaken from this nightmare anytime soon. We're a captive audience as well as contracted actors.  Maybe we can duck out into the lobby once in awhile, or take a break backstage.  We need to do those centering and breathing exercises.  But basically, the only way out is through.  

The Surprising Resistance to the Reign of Chaos (Act I)

 

When the most recent New York Times poll asked respondents to select the word that best described the current administration's reign so far, the winner was "chaotic," chosen by 66%.  

As the end of the first 100 days of Chaos approaches, an avalanche of new polls uniformly reflect majority and supermajority opposition to its policies and actions.  Apart from the historic nature of this disapproval and opposition, a few things jump out at me as significant surprises.

The political professionals on both sides have for years told us that all the American voters care about is their own pocketbook, that they will support anyone and anything that makes the economy and especially their economic situation better.  Only those who are comfortably well off will care about "special interest" issues, which the professionals defined as anything except bread and butter economics.

This was never true.  But the extent to which these polls measure response to other "issues," and the size and frequency of demonstrations against Chaos, how they occur virtually everywhere, and through the eloquence of the signs the demonstrators carry--more eloquent than any politician, shows how untrue it was and, under mortal threats of today, how untrue it is now.  And regarding some issues, frankly how surprisingly untrue.

Certainly people are seriously worried about the economy and the economic consequences of the Chaos tariffs.  Some worry about the economic impact to themselves or family members of the deteriorating Social Security system and the threats to Medicaid, to Head Start and school lunch programs, and many other relatively small deprivations that add up for the people involved.

But some of the most lopsided poll results--with 60, 70 and 80% opposition to Chaos actions and policies--are in other areas, that don't necessarily or directly affect economic circumstances. And the widespread support for some programs suggests it is not their own economic benefit they are considering.  These numbers not only reflect the depth of opposition to Chaos, they contradict the conventional wisdom on what people do and do not care about.

For the conventional wisdom is that people see no value in the federal government, but only a bloated and wasteful bureaucracy.  They disdain universities as playgrounds of the elite.  They see foreign aid as wasteful spending.  They'd rather have a tax cut.

Perhaps it was seeing what destroying the federal government really meant to the services they depended on, or people they knew and people in their community depended on--people who are their neighbors and customers.  But the epic and ignorant slash and burn devastation wreaked by the Muskovites turns out to be deeply unpopular, reflected as well in the hostility against Musk himself.  

But it goes beyond that polarizing figure. It turns out people want Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid.  They want Veterans to get the services promised to them.  They want Head Start, Meals on Wheels and school lunch and breakfast support.  They want their food tested and scientists working on preventing and treating diseases.  They want National Park Rangers and environmental protections.  They want the Post Office.  They want libraries.

FDR's right hand man Harry Hopkins famously said during the Great Depression, "People don't eat in the long term.  They eat every day."  These are all everyday services.  But the polls show more.  People want long-term medical and other scientific research to be funded.  They want a clean energy future.  They want a robust Department of Education.  They want friendly relations with allies in the world.  They support Ukraine.

As for all those elitist universities, some 70% oppose federal government interference ( attempt to take total control is more accurate.)   Who knew that 70% cared at all?

Of all the issues the professionals would have selected as having least popular support, right at or near the top would probably be foreign aid.  But a vast majority of those surveyed in every one of these polls that asked the question, oppose the Chaos devastation to foreign aid.

What is remarkable to me about this issue and others is that the words "foreign aid" are a kind of abstraction.  Giving money away to foreigners is the broadest interpretations.  Yet somehow a large proportion of the voting public associates it with providing food and medicine to people in dire circumstances very far away.  And they support doing that.  Did any politician even know that?

Apart from the inflation-fighting he promised to do but never even attempted, Chaos believed he got elected for his anti-immigrant rhetoric.  So the federal government is embarked on a reign of terror, using the Chaos version of the Gestapo to brutalize every brown person and foreigner from non-white "shit-hole countries" they can lay their hands on.  So sure of themselves that they squirm and twist interpretations and outright defy court orders.  

While a lot of voters may have bought the rhetoric about insecure borders, it turns out that most do not want to see immigrants brutalized, let alone people whose status is unclear or taken by mistake.  They oppose Chaos immigration policies and actions, and they strongly support the Constitutional guarantee of birthright citizenship.

And this may be one of the bigger surprises: they care about and support the rights guaranteed in the Constitution.  True, not enough voters seemed to care enough about them before the election, even as they were warned that electing Chaos would put them in jeopardy.  But the polls (as well as the demonstrations) show they strongly support the rights spelled out in the Constitution grouped under the term "due process of law."  They support them being applied to everyone.  This argues for a fundamental commitment to fairness, and an implied empathy--in those denied equal justice under law, they see themselves. 

Moreover, the protest signs reflect what may go even deeper in this widespread opposition: a pained resistance to cruelty, a consciousness of compassion.

So where are Americans getting these views?  I've heard many voices raised against the decline of civics courses in schools, and the absence of economics classes.  Somehow however something has sunk in.  We could list and speculate on how that information has become knowledge, but I think this is worth noting: that when it comes to current information on violations of due process and inhumane treatment, as well as on these other issues--well, it's not coming from Fox News.  It's certainly there in the much maligned mainstream media. And it evidently is considered credible, trustworthy information. 

Maybe it's out there in social media too, but it seems that the complete domination of the far right echo chamber is not so dominant after all, at least not at the moment.  It's the mainstream media and everyone writing or talking or being interviewed in and on it, that's telling Americans what tariffs really do, and where the economy is really headed--and who is at fault.  All of which is reflected in these polls.

The other intriguing element is that it is still very early in the process for much of this: for instance, the effects of the cuts and the tariffs have yet to be felt.  But people are anticipating those effects.  They see them coming.  They are engaged.  People are focused.  And they are--in the word most respondents selected in an NBC poll--"furious."

In public perception, Chaos has gone from a wearily elected president to a monster in 100 days. Many voters may want change but they do not want chaos; they want humane and efficient and Constitutional stability.  Words like "fascist" and "dictator" have gone from rare and generally derided in public discourse, to commonly spoken in the media and on the street (maybe even Wall Street.)  All this sets the stage for Act II of this improbable and uncomfortably real drama.  More on that anon.