A Dramatic Announcement

As yet another academic year begins, I am making this dramatic announcement of an entirely new discipline: Bullshit Studies.  This will not only join the many Studies now extant but also critique them, yet in a more robust manner than the former reigning champions, deconstruction and postmodern semiotics, which incidentally were bullshit.

Bullshit Studies has vast potential.  Bullshit fertilizes every field, in and beyond academia.  Some fields, such as politics and television, produce very little other than bullshit.  Calling bullshit is our chief mode of analysis.  But we are developing tools to measure it.  We will start with the Bullshit Detector, and a scale of from 1 to 5 units of bullshit.  These units are called Hemingways, or "hems."

For example, calling this a "dramatic announcement" gets 1 hem, as it is simple p.r. bullshit.  Referring to "we" gets 2 hems, as it is actual quantifiable deception.

Some people more or less embody bullshit, which will require a different tool to measure.  We're working on that.  We must develop a way to distinguish bullshit by membership ( Republicans are basically bullshit) and then bullshit beyond that (Cowboy Rick, Newt Romney, etc.)  Of course, individuals can belong to a not entirely bullshit political party or view, and still be bullshit.  Ariana Huffington, for example, is bullshit.

As an academic discipline, we look forward to taking over as many academic departments as possible.  It's a long road.  We'll probably start small, perhaps at the Fringe Festival of the Modern Language Association convention.  But it can be done, as deconstruction proved.  When we are able to deny tenure to anybody not swearing fealty to Bullshit Studies, then we know we have conquered.

But professing Bullshit Studies does not require advanced degrees.  We uphold the highest standards of scholarship and analysis, but as everyone knows, advanced degrees are bullshit.

Today we start by calling bullshit on those big mouths-- Republican, Democrat, and Mr. & Ms. InBetween--who are complaining that Hurricane/Tropical Storm Irene was overhyped.  Defining "overhyped" in non-tautological terms in reference to cable television will require years of systematic analysis (and perhaps a particle collider), so absent that, let's look at the substance of the charge in terms of impact and of actions--evacuations, precautions, money spent.

The impact of Irene is still being felt, long after the cable TV reporters have put away their rubber boots.  It's true that the media capitals of Manhattan and Washington did not suffer the impacts forecast in television animations.  The cameras, starved for shots of the Washington Monument toppled by the wind, or the Statue of Liberty swamped by the seas, had to be content to focus on reporters too dumb to get in out of the rain.  But since the cameras were switched off, the death toll has more than doubled.  Entire towns are flooded, in Vermont, New York state and New Jersey.  Roads are split and useless in North Carolina.  A million or more people are still without power.  Damages are likely to amount to from $6 billion to $12 billion--which ranks Irene in the top twenty most expensive hurricanes, and possibly the most expensive category one storm ever.

As for the precautions, pointing to the very statistic that suggests their success as evidence of their failure--the relatively low casuality figures--is bullshit.  It's 3 hem bullshit, which is characterized by repetition and is shared by a number of people who should know better, but that group of people is not totally bullshit--there are a fair number of idiots (including hopeless and temporary idiots) there as well.  Here's some suggested reading on the subject.

It's worth noting that an additional problem with forecasting storms these days is that we're in terra incognita thanks to the Climate Crisis, and its multiple effects over time.  That Irene may turn out to wreak most of its devastation with inland flooding is a prime example.

It's not clear at this point whether House maj leader Eric Cant is going to force FEMA to shut down without a deal on cuts to offset its budget appropriations, or whether he's just making those noises.  Cant is a challenge to Bullshit Studies.  He is himself bullshit.  But then there are his various actions, which require careful and nuanced application of Bullshit Detector categorization.  Fortunately, unlike FEMA and weather forecasting, this does not require GOPer-approved government funding. Which by the way has been cut for improving the very forecasting that bullshitters are complaining was inadequate.  That's a lot of bullshit.

Meanwhile there are huge ongoing wildfires in the heat of Texas and Oklahoma, and another tropical storm (Katia) in the Atlantic.  Storms, by the way, are not bullshit.

Footnote: (see, it is an academic thing.)  Our unit of measurement, the hem, is named after Ernest Hemingway because of his famous quotation (which is not so famous perhaps since I'm about to explain it): "The most essential gift for a good writer is a built-in, shock-proof, shit detector."  Unlike many famous quotations attributed to people who never said or wrote them, this one is not bullshit--that is, Hemingway actually "said" it: in his Paris Review interview (republished in Writers at Work: The Paris Review Interviews, Second Series, p.239.)

1000 Times Better

Vermont

The career of Hurricane Irene was full of surprises, and it's not over.  A storm that unexpectedly weakened  as it began moving up the U.S. coast unexpectedly retained its power and its huge extent depite making three separate landfalls.Some of the worst flooding seems to be happening near the storm's end, in Vermont.  There are reports of windows blown out by wind in Montreal.

And it still goes on.  More than 4 million are without power.  More than 20 have died, and that toll is likely to go up.  It will take at least days for New York City's transportation to be up and running, and at least that to restore power to some areas.  Roads are damaged, bridges washed out. Flooding is still continuing, and getting rid of the water in some places will take weeks.  The damage will take time to assess, but it could have been worse.  The injuries, the loss of life, could have been so much worse--and not only because the storm wasn't as intense as first believed.

The outcome is better and will be better because government worked.  President Obama on Sunday called it "an exemplary effort of how good government at every level should be responsive to people's needs."

Leading the effort was the Federal Emergency Management Agency, FEMA--the agency that became a dirty word during hurricane Katrina and its notorious aftermath.  But this time, said one local official, the FEMA response was "a thousand times better."

Even GOPer Governor Christie of New Jersey lauded the effort. FEMA officials, he said on NBC, are "working incredibly hard in providing things to us that we need."

That the storm did not reach the more dire dimensions that had been forecast prompted some second-guessing about the ordering of massive evacuations. But Christie said there would have been a "significant loss of life" if as many as 1 million people had not left the Jersey shore ahead of the high wind, heavy rain and tidal surges.

The officials who responded may get political credit.  The LA Times suggested "The federal government has come far since Hurricane Katrina, and the response to Irene could restore a measure of public trust and goodwill for President Obama."  But it's just as likely that he won't get any more credit than he has for supporting the rebels in Libya, or getting another major terrorist leader in Pakistan.  At least not in the media, and certainly not from the biggest GOPer mouths, who will start loudly complaining before Monday sunrise.

But the most important point isn't political, at least not in party politics.  It is simply this: that the value of people helping people is affirmed, and the idea that society is just a collection of everyone for themselves proves stupid once more.  People who want to making helping people their lives work do so in nonprofit organizations like the Red Cross, and they do it in government agencies like FEMA, or as first responders.  This was and remains an emergency affecting millions of people.  But every single day is an emergency for someone.  "You'd do the same for me" is as important an idea as any the human mind and heart has devised to live by.

Real Time

Lincoln Park, New Jersey

With the effects of Hurricane Irene still being felt, the postmortems on the forecasts has begun.  I've seen at least three major articles, none of which has much to say beyond the obvious.  Once again, the relationship of this huge storm to Climate Crisis conditions is suggested, but is not "proved."

There are two certainties about this storm, and about any storm, flood, heat wave, etc.  First, someone will call it a "wake-up call" and expect immediate changes sweeping through Washington to take the Climate Crisis seriously.  But as long as fossil fuel money controls the GOPer brain, that kind of consensus is unlikely.  Second, even scientists will deny that the extent or behavior of this storm--of any storm--"proves" that the Climate Crisis is involved, or is real.  But the question isn't proof, and never has been.

Other scientists who go at it the other way around, see the relationship.  They know the Climate Crisis is real, and they know that certain phenomena associated with this storm is both generally consistent with Climate Crisis models and adds to the knowledge base of what specific effects we might expect.  A few of the relationships are outlined here.  Others will be discussed and studied in the coming months.

But just consider this: no one knew for certain what Irene would do.  Yet it was generally known that wind, storm surges, and rain were going to be destructive and life-threatening.  So places in most danger were evacuated, response teams were organized and put in place, precautions taken by government, businesses and families.  All without 100% certainty.  Well, something like 97% of climate scientists agree on the general cause and consequence of the Climate Crisis.  Shouldn't that be enough to take action?  

And consider the context of this storm.  It was more destructive because a lot of the East Coast has been very wet lately.  A lot of rain, and (in New England especially) a lot of flooding.  According to Dr. Jeff Masters: Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.

While this part of the country has been very wet, other parts are parched to the point of drought.  Continuing heat and drought in southern California have officials very worried about fires.  And of the state of ace Climate Crisis denier Cowboy Rick, Dr. Masters writes that Houston hit 109F Saturday, tying the record as the hottest day in the city's history.   "This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today."

If the science--the physics, the chemistry--of the Climate Crisis were correct, these are the things that would be happening.  And they are happening.  Record after record gets broken, disaster after disaster deforms lives and depletes resources, but there's nothing to see here, move along, pardner.

Irene Update: Early Sunday

Hurricane Irene remains a huge and only slightly diminished storm after raking the East Coast from North Carolina into New Jersey.  It is just dawning on Sunday. With first light, the overnight damage will begin to be assessed from the continuing winds and rains--more than seven inches in Annapolis, Md., and up to 15 inches elsewhere--from storm surge and flooding, and from wind.  Millions are or were without power.  The Bay Bridge tunnel is flooded.  Roads are closed in the Tidewater area.  There have been ten deaths so far, most involving downed trees.  There have also been tornadoes associated with the storm.  At the moment there is a tornado watch for Long Island.

It's dawning over a very quiet New York City, where the big test will likely be around 8 a.m. EDT when high tide arrives at about the same time as Irene winds, now approaching at 75 mph with gusts over 90 mph.  Late forecasts however suggest that the feared widespread flooding in lower Manhattan may not happen, but that remains to be seen.  Another unknown is the effect of higher wind speeds higher in the air, meeting Manhattan's skyscrapers.

So far it seems preparations have paid off.  Up to 90% of Atlantic City's population evacuated.  Manhattan is shut down and few are on the streets.  President Obama was at FEMA's emergency control center.  But the danger won't be over at least until Sunday turns into Monday.  Later on Sunday, Irene moves into New England without totally relinquishing its effects on New York.  It will also be later Sunday that damage in Washington etc. can be assessed.  But it does so far seem that the Delaware/Maryland area got the worst of the storm.

Irene Update: Early Saturday

Not much has changed since Friday afternoon.  Irene has weakened (this photo was taken from space before the eye deteriorated) and it is expected to make first landfall in North Carolina as a weak category 2 or strong category 1 hurricane.  But Dr. Jeff Masters notes that this is deceptive because " Irene is such a huge storm--tropical storm force winds extend out up to 290 miles from the center--it has set a massive amount of the ocean's surface in motion, which will cause a much larger storm surge than the winds would suggest..." 

On Friday afternoon the potential storm surge damage was still rated at what "a typical Category 4 hurricane would have."  Though the storm will likely weaken further as it moves up the coast, storm surge will still be higher than the wind speed would usually indicate.  There is an additional factor: tides will be especially high anyway on Saturday night and Sunday morning due to the new moon.  Masters writes: " I continue to give a 20% chance that a 3 - 4 foot storm surge high enough to over-top the Manhattan flood walls and swamp the New York City subway system will occur on Sunday."

What noone knows is what the duration of the winds will mean. Because of the storm's size, some places will get high winds for 12 to 24 hours straight.  Given the population increase, difference in the built environment, etc. since the last big storms on the Atlantic coast, and given the hugeness and eccentric internal behavior of this storm, nobody really knows what the effect on tides, rivers, buildings, infrastructure (especially electricity) etc. will be.  And then there are the nuclear power plants.  

Fortunately both officials and the general population are taking this storm seriously. President Obama will be monitoring events from the White House. Evacuations and precautions and emergency efforts (see previous post) should help everyone get through this.   

What Matters

The good news concerning Hurricane Irene is that it is no longer a category 3, and is unlikely to intensify.  The bad news is that it is the size of Europe.  According to Dr. Jeff Masters' latest post, it is likely to make first landfall in North Carolina as a category 2, and decline to a category 1 by the time it reaches New England.  He expects flooding to be the major threat rather than wind damage.

Media coverage can't seem to be anything but excessive--either ignoring the storm or as now, filling the airwaves with simulations that make it seem that the storm damage is already a fact.

But the coverage is bringing home one important message: what matters.  What turns out to be important is the disaster planning and drills that hospitals, schools and municipalities have been working on.  Kim Kardashian's wedding does not matter. It never did. Disaster planning, the dedication of public employees, of nurses, police and fire, teachers and civil servants at all levels of government--they matter.  They always do. 

Irene Update: Early Friday

Early Friday from Weather Underground:

"Irene is forecast to make landfall on the North Carolina coast Saturday afternoon. It will likely be a Category 3 storm, with windspeeds around 115 mph. As Irene moves northwards through the mid-Atlantic region it will weaken considerably. On Sunday, Irene's center will pass through the Tri-State region of New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut, with impacts spread over a wider region due to Irene's size."

Note that landfall is not by any means the first effect.  Strong winds will start hitting North Carolina coast on Friday. The "weakening" also doesn't mean the threat of catastrophic effects is over.  Even a category 1 or tropical storm can cause considerable damage, especially with the amount of rain associated with this storm.  Flooding is a big worry. "Six to ten inches of rain are possible along Irene's track from the Carolinas northward, with 15 inches possible in isolated areas. As a result, flooding is very likely...The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC)... thinks that river flooding in eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey is likely, while flooding along the rest of the northeastern US is possible."

Earlier Dr. Jeff Masters warned: "I am most concerned about the storm surge danger to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of the New England coast. Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded."

According to an early Friday morning story, CBS News hurricane consultant David Bernard says Irene could still strengthen to a category 4 before it hits North Carolina.  The CBS story quotes an official suggesting that the storm will likely cost billions in damages, enough to affect the U.S. economy.

As for the storm itself, "It is a massive storm - spanning as wide as 700 miles - with tropical-force winds extending almost twice as far as normal. Irene is about the same size as Katrina, which devastated New Orleans in 2005."  Although Katrina was a category 5 hurricane at its most intense, it was a category 3 when it hit New Orleans.

Emergency

The new predicted track is in and it's the "worse." (See previous post.) Though Hurricane Irene failed to achieve category 4, after battering the Bahamas it has reconstituted as a strong category 3 and is headed up the eastern seaboard of the U.S.

Hardly a blip on the news last night when I posted, this is now the dominant story.  Why?  Well, the media centers of New York City and DC are threatened, but it's otherwise warranted as well: this storm could affect areas where 55 million Americans live, including 20 million in the New York City area, and 2 million on the New York/New Jersey shoreline alone.  In Manhattan, Ground Zero (the World Trade Center site) is particularly vulnerable.

Six states on or near the eastern coast have declared emergencies.  Mayor Bloomberg of NYC has ordered the evacuations of hospitals and nursing homes in low-lying areas, and will consider larger evacuation by Friday morning.  He suggests the city's subway system, pretty much a lifeline for New York, may shut down on Saturday.

As of Thursday afternoon, Irene was an "unusually large" storm, spread 250 miles in every direction.  As it moves up the U.S. coast it will cross the warmest waters ever recorded off New York and New Jersey.  "Irene's middle name is Global Warming," said Bill McKibben on MSNBC.

Right now the storm is tracking to begin affecting North Carolina on Friday, as a category 3 hurricane. It would reach Virginia and Washington late Friday and Saturday, possibly weakening to category 2.   Then it moves up the coast from Saturday to Sunday and Monday, expected to weaken as it goes but still a category 1 when it reaches New York/New Jersey.  But even if it is down to tropical storm force winds, the damage could still be considerable.

  The population areas it could affect dramatically include Washington,   Philadelphia, New York City and Long Island, and possibly Boston.  Storm surges could flood New York subways and airports.  Heavy rain and wind are also expected with this storm.  "We could be looking at mandatory evacuations up and down the East Coast," said a Weather Channel reporter.  Already, commercial air flights and scheduled trains are being cancelled.  The scheduled dedication of the Martin Luther King memorial in Washington has already been cancelled as well.

But amidst what could be a catastrophic storm, affecting these areas for days and weeks, GOPer House majority leader Eric Cant's office is insisting that no federal emergency aid be rendered unless offset by budget cuts.

Hurricane Irene Update: Dangerous and Potentially Historic Storm

CBS News meteorologist says that Hurricane Irene could be an "historic storm."  He calls the two more likely storm tracks "bad" and "worse."

He outlines those two scenarios:

"The bad scenario cuts the hurricane across Long Island and into New England as a large and strong Category 2 storm. This scenario brings tremendous storm surge on the back bays of Long Island and from the ocean. Massive power disruption and tremendous wind damage will result.

The worse scenario has the hurricane hug the coast all the way to New York City. This would bring tremendous storm surge and wind damage affecting everything from Maryland, right up to the Hudson Valley and across New England."

Earlier on Wednesday, Dr. Jeff Masters:

Irene continues to be embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a category 4 hurricane (winds of 131 to 155 mph). The only reliable model that's not forecasting this intensification is the GFS, and this is likely due to its relatively course spatial resolution. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 4 tomorrow, with a decrease in intensity back to a category 3 on Friday."

Emergency management officials in the eastern states, and particularly FEMA director Craig Fugate are on the job.  Residents are urged to be prepared for storm effects as well as aftereffects (loss of power, infrastructure damage, etc.)  Evacuations from the area of the U.S. coast expected to be hit first,  North Carolina Outer Banks, will be underway Thursday.  The Bahamas will bear the brunt on Thursday.  This storm has already caused flooding in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, and killed two people.

Texas in the Crosshairs

Hurricane Ike is headed to Texas, and forecasters
warn of catastrophic storm surges (noted in this
map) and winds. Galveston is particularly endangered,
and possibly Houston. Map from Weather Underground.

Hurricane Update

Gustav is still a hurricane, and has cut off power in Baton Rouge. New Orleans lucked out--the levees survived the initial storm surge and it didn't get the quantity of rain so far that it could have. But at this hour at least one levee is threatened, so flooding in part of the city is still possible, perhaps likely.

Meanwhile, hurricane Hanna is likely to make landfall on the East Coast this week, and another hurricane is building, perhaps two more.

Landfall Monday

Gustav is expected to arrive sooner but maybe

not as strong as predicted earlier, but the timing

is tricky. It may make landfall as a category 3 between noon and

2pm, and may catch high tide, which will increase

the storm surge. So far it is tracking west of New

Orleans, and the predicted storm surge will test

the levees. It's a big storm with lots of rain and

potential for tornadoes. Texas is apt to get quite

a bit of rain from it over the next few days.

On Track for New Orleans

Gustav continues on track towards New Orleans.
Mandatory evacuation of that city is Sunday,
although perhaps a million people have already
moved out of the storm's path. That path may be
further complicated by tropical storm Hanna behind
it, so Gustav may make landfall in the U.S. more than
once. Sunday afternoon Republicans announce how
this will affect their convention schedule. Click image
to enlarge. Gustav is a large storm is size as well as
power--it left Cuba a strong category 4 and is likely
to be a category 5 soon.
Update 5pm Pacific: The good news is that Gustav
unexpectedly weakened and is no longer expected to
be more than a category 3 hurricane when it hits U.S.
mainland. But that's still very dangerous, and storm surges could
still flood New Orleans. Over 2 million people have evacuated along
the Gulf coast. The GOP convention is curtailing all
but necessary business on Monday.

Category 4

Gustav is now a category 4 hurricane with winds
of 145 mph. It is heading directly for New Orleans,
which has begun evacuations, but some computer models
suggest it could veer slightly west and make landfall
in Texas. However, if it stays on course to New Orleans, Dr. Masters
writes "Gustav is capable of bringing a storm surge to
the city that will overwhelm the levees." Others suggest
it could strengthen once it leaves Cuba, where large
evacuations are underway, and enters the Gulf.
This storm has already killed 79 people.
There's another one right behind it.

Gustav Heading for U.S.

At this hour, Gustav is a category 2 hurricane with
100 mph winds. Dr. Jeff Masters of Weather Underground
suggests it could well become a category 3, and suggest
its time for people in New Orleans to leave. Mayor Ray
Nagin of New Orleans said Friday that evacuations
of the city could begin today.

Happy Birthday, John McSame

Today is John McCain's 72nd birthday. These photos were taken on his 69th, while New Orleans was being drowned by hurricane Katrina. Now another hurricane is bearing down on the Gulf, and thanks to Bush-McCain indifference, the area is just as vulnerable.

Enough

John McCain celebrated his 72nd birthday by naming Sarah Palin, the new governor of Alaska, as his VP candidate. Jonathan Alter in Newsweek:

Happy birthday, Johnny Mac! You're 72 now, a cancer survivor, and a presidential candidate who has said on many occasions that the most important criteria for picking a vice president is whether he or she could immediately step in if something happened to the president. Your campaign against Barack Obama is based on the simple idea that he is unready to be president. So you've picked a running mate who a year and a half ago was the mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, a town of 8,500 people. You've selected a potential leader of the free world who knows little or nothing about the major issues of the day beyond energy. Oh, and she's being probed in her state for lying and abuse of power."

The photos above are of McCain and President Bush celebrating McCain's 69th birthday, on the same day as hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans, and the Bush administration let that city drown, let people suffer for days, and never did respond adequately.

Now as the Republican convention is set to begin, another hurricane is bearing down on the Gulf, possibly New Orleans itself. Yet a New York Times editorial begins: Three years after Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast, residents there are nervously watching the progress of Tropical Storm-threatening-to-be-Hurricane Gustav. No less nerve-wracking is the knowledge that federal emergency planners have failed to come up with a new strategy for providing housing to disaster victims.

In July — a full year after Congress’s mandated deadline — the Federal Emergency Management Agency produced a skimpy draft proposal. Most of its required topic specialties — including how to house the poor and the disabled, how to house victims close to their jobs and how to manage large camps for evacuees — were left blank. Instead, the proposal called for handing those plans off to a task force of experts. And, oh yes, that task force has yet to be formed.

We've had enough of cynical political ploys, uncaring incompetence, and failure to value the lives of the most vulnerable Americans. The past eight years have severely damaged this country in multiple ways. It will take immense effort and dedication and intelligence to repair that damage and start meeting new challenges. We can't afford four more years. The economic news of today--lower incomes, higher inflation--is another reason why. It's time for a change.