The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, known popularly as NOAA, issued an update this week from its Climate Prediction Center on the emerging El Nino. It pegs chances that it will be a very strong and long-lasting event at 2 out of 3. And it appears to be heating up (literally) to affect global weather faster than previously predicted, likely to come to life officially in June. It is given a 96% chance to last through the winter, with some suggesting its most extreme effects could come in 2027.
A lot of scientists and other observers are especially alarmed by this El Nino's potential to be historically immense. But whatever its strength, its heating effects will be on top of the ongoing effects of climate distortion, which means we could really be in uncharted territory.
One story quotes a Florida meteorologist: "I think we're going to see weather events that we've never seen in modern history before."
Hotter than usual water in a particular region of the Pacific affects wind currents which in turn affect the atmosphere, and leads to major shifts in weather around the world. But no one can predict which areas will be hit with torrential rains or stifling drought, an onslaught of storms or eerie calm. But El Nino usually does one thing consistently: it raises the global temperature.
The possible ramifications for an El Nino matching the strongest on record--from 1877 (that's eighteen seventy-seven)--has been the subject of several articles. David Wallace Wells in the New York Times provides the largest context, both historical and in terms of current climate science and speculation.
Historically, this El Nino led to droughts and then famine in India, China, Africa, Brazil and elsewhere, leading to the deaths of an estimated 31 to 61 million people. While the world is vastly different economically now, there's much to worry about in terms of the ability and willingness of wealthy nations to help those most devastated. And the resulting turmoil in heavy armed countries.
Wells also suggests that this El Nino could be strong enough to shift global climate permanently into the hotter world predicted by climate models for the 2030s to the 2050s. It is a world the world is not prepared for, least of all the United States, where the federal government's official policy is denial and indifference to helping in emergencies, let alone preparation. As a people we deny the effects of the most likely and widespread outcome: heat itself. This in a country where excessive heat kills more Americans than hurricanes, tornadoes and floods combined.
And not only could the effects of the El Nino be added to the ongoing climate effects--some prominent scientists like James Hansen believe the ongoing effects are being greatly underestimated. Just in recent months other scientists announced that the world's ice is melting faster than previously believed, and that the Atlantic current is weaker and more likely to break down than previously believed.
We do not seem to be physically (in terms of infrastructure, etc.) or psychologically prepared for what's coming. Yet I read recently some professional political advice to Democratic candidates to stop talking about climate--it turns people off, and the people who already are concerned are never going to vote Republican. Part of the premise is that Democratic candidates in recent cycles have talked about it, and lost. I really doubt that premise. Nobody talks about it--not in anything but general terms. And so, there is no public leadership, and we are nearly as unprepared now as we were in the early 1990s, when the alarm was first sounded.
One thing that seems to be different is the undercurrent of fear. But lacking leadership, this fear has nowhere to go to be focused on action. Instead it is expressed in phenomena like the falling birth rate, when young couples fear the future. A NYT oped to that effect manages to refer to climate disasters without even mentioning the fear of climate distortion as a factor in that fear. That's how strong it and its corresponding denial are: it reminds me of the fear of nuclear holocaust in the Cold War period--always present, hardly ever acknowledged, expressed in symbolism as in atomic monster movies. People felt helpless--and they were. That's not the case with responding to climate distortion. It should have been the work of this generation. It will have to be the work of the next.
