Weekend Update: Tulsa Turndown and Covid News

"Rarely has a single campaign rally drawn as much hype as the one President Donald Trump held Saturday night at the BOK Center in Tulsa, Oklahoma—a relaunch of his reelection bid that, according to the president himself, more than 1 million people had requested tickets to attend" writes Russell Berman in the Atlantic.  "Rarely has a presidential event endangered the public health of the community it was held in. And rarely has a spotty crowd made such a statement. It turns out Oklahomans might care more about their own health than the president does."

Gee, did anyone suggest this might happen?  Let's see...In my Weekend Update of June 13 I wrote: "There are still the AlwaysTrumpers, the reliable one-third, but it's not clear how reliable they are anymore. We will see if they are really insane enough to crowd into covid pits to shout and spit in Tulsa, where infections are rising fast, or even in Jacksonville. What if the tickets aren't actually going like hotcakes in Tulsa, and what if Trump suddenly realizes that for an hour or more he'll be facing thousands of possibly infected people screaming at him?"

Now we know the answer to those questions.  In the battle between the Germaphobe-in-Chief vs. the Narcissist-in-Chief, the Narcissist won.  But the AlwaysTrumpers didn't show in the usual numbers-- estimates have the arena anywhere from a third to a half from the capacity of 19,000 [Update: Tulsa Fire Marshal estimates the crowd at 6,200, which is a third of capacity, or two-thirds empty.  The Trump campaign says it was 12,000.], and the overflow outdoor venue had so few attendees that speeches by Trump and Pence were cancelled.  Of course we don't know how many of those who might have attended changed their minds because of the covid crisis.  But normally people don't miss a chance to see a President, and a lot of people took a pass on this one. (The actual attendance has really nothing to do with any fake reservations made online which may have affected only the campaign's prior estimates.)

Those who did show bunched together and though some wore masks, others immediately threw away the ones they were dutifully given.  Which suggests another explanation: that the true number of diehard AlwaysTrumpers is fewer than assumed.

That business of the outdoor arena being the overflow venue is very telling. If they had that venue available, why didn't they hold the main event there?  It would have mitigated somewhat against the risk of spreading the virus.  People can make nearly as much noise outdoors as in an echoing indoor arena.  That is, if they show up, which apparently the Trump campaign believed they would.

The reason has to be that the indoor arena was an in-your-face statement that the virus and people who could contract it don't matter. Virus, what virus? Trump made fun of it in his remarks.  But the very selection of the indoor venue was a vicious statement. It is the superspreader of denial.

A lot more happened this week that added up to administration racism, corruption and the ongoing attempt to hollow out and destroy the federal government, and the states besides. Each week gets more grotesque than the last.  But in this update I'm sticking to virus news.

Global infections are at record highs, and in the US they are climbing to the highest previous point of spring.  No one doubts they will exceed prior levels. Not long ago the headline was that half the states were "re-opening." Now the headline is that at least half the states are seeing big increases in infections.

It is now generally concluded that reopening and group activities on Memorial Day weekend and after have accelerated infections and hospitalizations. It's also widely concluded that at least so far, the protests after George Floyd's murder did not contribute to greatly increasing infections, possibly because they were outdoors and the majority of protesters wore masks.

It's also clear that hot weather has done little or nothing to slow down the virus, since prominent among the virus hot spots are the hot states of Florida, Arizona, Texas, southern California and Oklahoma.

There's more consensus on risk factors.  The virus most easily transmits, current thinking goes, when people are together for hours indoors without masks and without physical distancing, especially if they are breathing harder--shouting, singing, dancing, etc.  So apart from nursing homes, crowded factory floors, and overcrowded migrant housing, as well as repeated exposure to an infected member of the household, infections have been traced back to large social activities in homes and other rooms (birthdays, funerals, weddings), and to bars and nightclubs (30 members of the national champion LSU football team were infected as a result of an evening at a nighclub.)

The new clusters of infections seem to be taking place among young people, possibly linked to those social settings, and not boding real well for reopening colleges.

Wearing a mask, a face covering, is becoming the most recommended deterrent to infection, along with physical distancing.  Catching the virus from surfaces is thought to be less likely.

Naturally people are interested in any scientific study but it's best to get beyond the headlines.  There were lots of stories last week about a study showing that blood types are a factor in severity.  But the difference turns out to be negligible.  Other factors are more important.  And while more is being learned, most of the mysteries of this mysterious virus are still, you know, mysterious.

And there is this disquieting column in the Washington Post by Erin Blakemore     about the claims made by a gerontologist and a public health expert at the CDC claiming "that ageist perceptions of seniors as helpless and expendable affect how they’re cared for, and how many of them die of covid-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus."

 This brief column links to the article by these doctors that outlines the problems and the possible solutions.  But I find myself staring at the two words I highlighted: helpless and expendable.  And how, consciously or not, they may go together.  As well as the assumption that seniors are both.

Nationally some 80% of covid deaths are of Americans over 65.  Here in Humboldt County it's been 100%--although I believe at least 2 if not all 4 were in their 90s.  Our numbers are too small to mean anything, but I can't help  noticing anyway that my age group--the 70s--has by far the fewest cases of known infection, only 3.  Yet the 60s had the most cases until recently, and now comes a close second to the age group with the largest number, the 30s.  With only 110 cases total since the pandemic was identified, the age group numbers vary little really--they just look different on a bar graph.  Still, if there is a reason for the 70s being the lowest I can't think what it is.  But of course I'll take it.

Juneteenth

It's Kamala

Update 6/18: Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota has withdrawn her name from consideration for Dem v.p.  She reportedly told presidential candidate Biden that he should choose a woman of color as his running mate. Senator Klobuchar repeated all this in a TV interview Thursday evening.  With Juneteenth tomorrow, it will be interesting to see if Senator Warren feels the need to do the same.  Meanwhile, a new poll finds "59% of Democratic primary voters believe having a woman of color as Joe Biden’s running mate would increase the ticket’s chances of victory."

The din of pointless stories on presidential candidate Joe Biden's choice of a vice-presidential running mate is getting louder but no more informative. Because nobody knows anything.

But if you actually listen to what Biden has said on the subject, there is at this point still only one likely choice: Senator Kamala Harris.  And I will be beyond surprised if, barring some problem in the vetting, it isn't her.

Biden has said three relevant things.  In direct response to questions about his v.p. he's said that his choice has to be ready to assume presidential responsibilities immediately, and that the person has to be "simpatico."

Biden's third relevant statement is that he hopes to be the transition to a new generation of leaders.

Senator Harris ran for President and participated in presidential debates, showing her grasp of the issues a President will face.  Since the murder of George Floyd, pundits suggest a black woman is the most likely choice.  Other black women mentioned have different and relevant experience, and only Susan Rice has actually been involved in presidential decision-making.  But experience with national issues as a senator, familiarity with the ways of the national media, visibility as a presidential candidate and the competency Senator Harris displayed in the debates all count heavily in her favor.   Someone thrust into the Presidency must have the immediate confidence of the public.  Senator Harris has a national presence, without being overexposed.

And unlike several if not all of the black women on everybody's short list, Joe Biden already knows her.  They share deep bonds through Biden's beloved son Bo.  Unless there is some massively hidden antipathy and mistrust, on this criterion alone, Senator Harris is the clear choice.

And Kamala Harris is a member of that next generation.  She looks it, she speaks it.  She is both familiar and "new," especially since she's been keeping a low profile lately.  Her choice can bring excitement to the ticket, and so can she as a campaigner.

I wrote previously that Senator Elizabeth Warren or Senator Harris were the most likely choices at this point.  Despite Senator Warren's recent visibility--and a spate of stories suggesting she is the frontrunner for v.p.--I doubt that it will be her.  She is a more divisive choice, with strong adherents who claim Biden would win easily with her, and strong detractors who say Biden would lose with her on the ticket.  If she is selected I would support that---she clearly has the skills to assume the presidency, she has a lot of minority support as well as progressive cred, and she can be a formidable campaigner.  If Biden chooses her, then he must feel that "simpatico" that has not been evident before.

But I don't think she will be the choice.  The optics seem inappropriate for 2020--two white candidates who look old.  She may come across as a partner to Biden, but she may also take too much attention away from him in the campaign.

As for other contenders, there are political consideration.  Atlanta Mayor Bottoms is also on the media's shortlist, but recent events in her city show the political dangers of picking a mayor or governor now in office, who may be embroiled in crises in the middle of a campaign.  That won't happen with the Senator from California.  (And more than incidentally, her Senate seat will remain Democratic in the short term, and very likely in the next election.  To keep Senator Warren's seat will require state legislative action and an uncertain election.)

Kamala Harris is an immediate asset.  She is young, energetic, highly articulate, and by now has actual and sometimes painful experience in a national campaign, as Biden did when he was Obama's v.p. running mate.  And they look really good together.  They've got chemistry.

Senator Harris can be tough and incisive in her words.  But she also has a winning smile--not quite Obama wattage but close--and her vocal timbre is in that range most appealing to the ear. That may seem a bit off the wall but I think it's really important.

She's not the progressive alternative that Senator Warren might be, but given Warren's movement towards the party's center as the rest of the party moves in the progressive direction, there's not much daylight between them anymore.  Given the racial realities of the moment, her nomination is itself progressive.

No one can know what she and Biden have talked about, and if there is any disagreement on policy and procedure that is serious enough to short-circuit this candidacy.  But that's highly unlikely. 2021 is going to be really new territory for everybody, in almost every way.  Biden has shown his ability to respond.  He will need to know she can, too.

There's still more than a month before Biden's deadline for announcing, so things can still change. It's not a foregone conclusion exactly, but at least in my mind, it's Kamala.

Poetry Monday: Just A Little More

Just A Little More

Just a little more
And we shall see the almond trees in blossom
The marbles shining in the sun
The sea, the curling waves.
Just a little more
Let us rise just a little higher.

--George Seferis

Giorgos (or George) Seferis was a 20th century Greek poet.  His real-world name was Georgios Seferiades, and his real world job was as a diplomat.  He represented Greece in the UK both in the 1930s and again as Ambassador from 1957 to 1962.   In 1936, he translated Eliot's The Waste Land into Greek.  As a poet he was considered both a European modernist and a continuation of Greek tradition.   He won the Nobel Prize for Literature in 1963.  He died in Athens in 1971.

I've come across him recently as a real-life character in Henry Miller's luminous The Colossus of Maroussi, a book-length account of Miller's months in Greece in 1939 just as World War II was beginning. It was Miller's own favorite of all the books he wrote.  Another Greek poet, George Katsimbalis is more prominently featured, but Miller is rhapsodic about Seferis as well.