Big Mo in MO

Barack Obama spoke in St. Louis Saturday to a crowd officially estimated at 100,000, the largest U.S. gathering of this campaign. (Click the second photo to enlarge, and get a sense of how many people that is.) Then (third photo) he spoke again that evening to some 75,000 in Kansas City, MO. In between, he did what Obama volunteers are doing all over the country: calling and talking to voters.

The New York Times story about these events began: "There was the feel of a political world turned upside down on Saturday as Senator John McCain found himself defending North Carolina and Virginia, while Senator Barack Obama was greeted by huge crowds in Missouri, which Republicans had also considered safe just months ago."

Update: Obama contributors got the news first: contributions in September totalled $150 million. If I remember correctly, that at least doubles the previous monthly high. More than 630,000 new donors in the month for a total of 3.1 million. Average donation was still under $100. The categories with the highest donation totals were students and retirees. But lots of everybody else, including some 30,000 fellow writers. AMAZING!

Don't Let Them Steal Your Vote

Early voting has begun in several states--and will soon begin in the battleground of Florida.

G.O.P. Trying to STOP THE VOTE

Voters are lining up in record-breaking numbers to vote right now in early-voting states. A very worried Republican Party is trying to stop people from voting, and discourage many others from voting, with an inflammatory campaign of exaggerated and false accusations, claiming voter fraud.

The truth is that in recent years there has been almost no successful registration fraud (people registering phony or ineligible voters, which even then doesn't usually result in those people actually voting) or voting fraud (people voting who aren't eligible to vote) perpetrated in the U.S.

Nevertheless, Republicans are screaming about it on TV, and going to court in various parts of the country to try to force states to adopt onerous requirements designed to create chaos in election systems and at polling places, all simply to discourage voters from voting, particularly minority and lower income voters--as well as student voters this year-- who are more likely to vote for Democrats.

The McCain campaign is trying to demonize an organization called ACORN that among other things registers low-income voters. It is an organization that until recently John McCain was proud to support. Now McCain and his allies have seized on a few cases of canvassers filling out registration cards wrongly--cases quickly caught by ACORN and by local officials--to inflate the issue and alarm people.

The Republican Party tried to get the courts to force such measures in Ohio, but they failed Friday when the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against them. Now they're trying it in Pennsylvania courts.

This smokescreen of "voter fraud" is precisely what sparked the Bush administration firings of federal prosecutors for political reasons that led to Attorney General Alberto Gonzales' resignation and the appointment of a Special Prosecutor. This did not escape the notice of the Obama campaign. Its attorney wrote a letter to the current Attorney General asking that the Special Prosecutor also investigate collusion between the Bush administration and the McCain-Palin campaign:

" I request that Special Prosecutor Dannehy’s inquiry include a review of any involvement by Justice Department and White House officials in supporting the McCain-Palin campaign and the Republican National Committee (“RNC”)’s systematic development and dissemination of unsupported, spurious allegations of vote fraud. It is highly likely that the very sort of politically motivated conduct identified in the Department’s investigation to date, necessitating the appointment of a Special Prosecutor, is repeating itself, and for the same reason: unwarranted and politically motivated intervention in the upcoming election."

Voters must not fall for this blatantly partisan attempt to suppress the vote and to intimidate voters and otherwise cause chaos in the voting system. Republicans are engaging in exactly the activity they accuse others of conducting: subverting the most sacred and most important process of democracy in America.

We must all resolve with even more fervor to vote, and to encourage others to vote this year. It is the most important election of our lifetimes. It is worth any difficulty caused by those who don't want to lose their power and privilege. These attempts to suppress and stop voting makes it all the more important to insist on your right to vote, and to exercise that right by voting.

Here's an update on the issue from the AP:"This is all just one big head-fake," said Tova Wang of the government watchdog group Common Cause. "What silliness this is, at this point. It's all about creating this perception that there is a tremendous problem with voter fraud in this country, and it's not true."

An Historic Endorsement

Major newspaper endorsements for President have begun, and Barack Obama is getting most of them, including the Washington Post (which said that Obama has the potential to be a great President), San Francisco Chronicle, Pittsburgh Post Gazette, St. Louis Post Dispatch, and many more.

But some endorsements say a little more than others. Like the L.A. Times, which hasn't endorsed anyone in decades, and has never endorsed a Democrat, before their endorsement of Barack Obama.

Still, they've been trumped by the Chicago Tribune--another newspaper that has never endorsed a Democrat before. And it's not just that they've been around longer, but the President they chose to name and link with Obama's name in their endorsement:

He has risen with his honor, grace and civility intact. He has the intelligence to understand the grave economic and national security risks that face us, to listen to good advice and make careful decisions.

When Obama said at the 2004 Democratic Convention that we weren't a nation of red states and blue states, he spoke of union the way Abraham Lincoln did.

It may have seemed audacious for Obama to start his campaign in Springfield, invoking Lincoln. We think, given the opportunity to hold this nation's most powerful office, he will prove it wasn't so audacious after all. We are proud to add Barack Obama's name to Lincoln's in the list of people the Tribune has endorsed for president of the United States."

No Drama Obama

Once again, all the instant polls and focus groups--including those of undecided voters--said Barack Obama did the more convincing job and won the third and final presidential debate Wednesday night, by a large margin. Most of the pundits remarked on Obama's cool and collected presence and presentations, versus McCain's angry demeanor and erratic presentation.

Youth Counselling

their parents on what they need for their future. A few seconds from MoveOn.org.

Back from the Abyss

Martin Wolf of the Financial Times was on Charlie Rose tonight talking about the financial catastrophe that was narrowly avoided this past weekend. He said that the world financial system was on the brink of collapse. Later in the program, economist Nouriel Roubini--who some time ago had warned in detail of what did happen this past month--said that if this collapse had happened, we'd be in a severe recession for ten years.

What saved the system was the IMF and G7 conferences, where governments talked it out, and developed a common strategy of supporting banks along the lines that Gordon Brown in the UK had begun. Wolf said that there was no such agreement on Friday, but by Sunday there was. It wasn't formally a world effort--European nations and the U.S. (which together comprise 2/3 of the world economy) adapted this basic plan to their own national circumstances--but Wolf said it was the kind of concerted effort that was necessary, and had never happened before.

Wolf and Roubini agreed that the amount of money the U.S. has devoted to this is probably insufficient (European nations have pledged much more) but that for now the effort has saved the financial system from total ruin. The economic effects are still going to be felt for some time. Wolf predicts a recession lasting at least a year; Roubini says at least 2 years.

Wolf pointed to a number of relative bright spots, however. He said that U.S. exports are strong, and that the falling price of oil will make inflation very unlikely. He believes most countries will weather this (although some will need help), and most big companies. But there will be failures, particularly in consumer products--especially those depending on selling to rich people.

Both agreed that the U.S. government will need to stimulate its economy with infrastructure and other investments, and soon--which is what the Democrats and Barack Obama have already proposed. The question is whether it will be accomplished soon enough.

Roubini also said what Obama has been saying--that this crisis was caused by the ideology of insufficient regulation of financial institutions, and it went far beyond and far deeper than the housing bubble. Basically, the super rich party is over. And we'll all be paying for it.

Wolf said that the biggest question that will determine how long the recession lasts will be how Americans see the future--whether they have confidence in the future again. It's Obama time, and for once, the American people seem to know what they need.

Obama Economic Plan: J-O-B-S

Obama's speech in Toledo (about 25 min.) Excerpts in post below.

Obama Economic Plan: J-O-B-S

In Toledo, Ohio Monday, Barack Obama made several new proposals on the economy, in addition to his proposals to cut taxes, provide affordable health care, make college education possible for everyone and start growing new Green jobs. Video is above, the prepared text is here, the New York Times story here. Excerpts:

"Last week, Senator McCain's campaign announced that they were going to "turn the page" on the discussion about our economy so they can spend the final weeks of this election attacking me instead. His campaign actually said, and I quote, "if we keep talking about the economy, we're going to lose." Well Senator McCain may be worried about losing an election, but I'm worried about Americans who are losing their jobs, and their homes, and their life savings. They can't afford four more years of the economic theory that says we should give more and more to millionaires and billionaires and hope that prosperity trickles down to everyone else...

We need to pass an economic rescue plan for the middle-class and we need to do it now. Today I'm proposing a number of steps that we should take immediately to stabilize our financial system, provide relief to families and communities, and help struggling homeowners. It's a plan that begins with one word that's on everyone's mind, and it's easy to spell: J-O-B-S.

That's why I'm proposing to give our businesses a new American jobs tax credit for each new employee they hire here in the United States over the next two years. To fuel the real engine of job creation in this country, I've also proposed eliminating all capital gains taxes on investments in small businesses and start-up companies, and I've proposed an additional tax incentive through next year to encourage new small business investment. It is time to protect the jobs we have and to create the jobs of tomorrow by unlocking the drive, and ingenuity, and innovation of the American people. And we should fast track the loan guarantees we passed for our auto industry and provide more as needed so that they can build the energy-efficient cars America needs to end our dependence on foreign oil.

We will also save one million jobs by creating a Jobs and Growth Fund that will provide money to states and local communities so that they can move forward with projects to rebuild and repair our roads, our bridges, and our schools. A lot of these projects and these jobs are at risk right now because of budget shortfalls, but this fund will make sure they continue.

The second part of my rescue plan is to provide immediate relief to families who are watching their paycheck shrink and their jobs and life savings disappear. I've already proposed a middle-class tax cut for 95% of workers and their families, but today I'm calling on Congress to pass a plan so that the IRS will mail out the first round of those tax cuts as soon as possible. We should also extend and expand unemployment benefits to those Americans who have lost their jobs and are having a harder time finding new ones in this weak economy. And we should stop making them pay taxes on those unemployment insurance benefits as well.

The third part of my rescue plan is to provide relief for homeowners who are watching their home values decline while their property taxes go up.... We don't need a new law or a new $300 billion giveaway to banks like Senator McCain has proposed, we just need to act quickly and decisively.

For those Americans in danger of losing their homes, today I'm also proposing a three-month moratorium on foreclosures.

Congress should pass this emergency rescue plan as soon as possible. If Washington can move quickly to pass a rescue plan for our financial system, there's no reason we can't move just as quickly to pass a rescue plan for our middle-class that will create jobs, provide relief, and help homeowners. And if Congress does not act in the coming months, it will be one of the first things I do as President of the United States. "

Nobel with Cat

Congratulations to Paul Krugman, who won this year's Nobel Prize in Economics. Some background and links here. In his New York Times column today, he explains how the surprising plan for the public to buy shares in banks that sent the stock market soaring Monday began in England. Details on the U.S. plan are here. Also in the Washington Post here.

A Helping Hand

"Together we cannot fail. Not now. Not when we have a crisis to solve and an economy to save. Not when there are so many Americans without jobs and without homes. Now when there are families who can't afford to see a doctor

or send their child to college, or pay their bills at the end of the month. Not when there is a generation that is counting on us to give them the same opportunities and the same chances that we had for ourselves.

We can do this. Americans have done this before. Some of us had grandparents or parents who said maybe I can’t go to college but my child can; maybe I can’t have my own business but my child can. I may have to rent, but maybe my children will have a home they can call their own. I may not have a lot of money but maybe my child will run for Senate. I might live in a small village but maybe someday my son can be president of the United States of America.Now it falls to us. Together, we cannot fail."

--Barack Obama in Dayton Ohio Oct. 9, 2008

Speculation and/on the Real Economy

As I write this, European and Asian stock markets are either following the American markets down, or they're leading Friday's U.S. downward plunge, or both. So here's my semi-informed explanation of what's going on.

This fall is explained by "experts" as "loss of confidence" or fear. What it seems to me to amount to is this: rich people are cashing out. They've made as much as they're going to make for the time being from this financial house of cards, and they're taking their cards out while they still can.

Here's something else. I've heard the experts and commentators saying that surely the stock market can't go too much lower because prices are approaching the point that they reflect the real value of the companies. In other words, they are admitting that all this wealth that's being lost was never real wealth at all.

How unreal wealth translates into $4,000 a night hotel rooms (though only $500 for dogs) for government bailed-out AIG execs who promptly spent every cent they got and are back for more, is a bit of a mystery to me, but I see that for a certain period of time, unreal wealth does translate into some kind of reality.

And if you think about it, the concept does work if you look at long enough time periods. Wealth has been created that has depleted resources and destroyed to some extent the ability of the environment to keep sustaining us, at least without a lot of work to renew it. Similarly, our built infrastructure. So the wealth created is, over time, unreal wealth.

Our only chance at sustaining civilization in the long run is to use this period of unreal wealth to organize a new economy and financial system that are sustainable and that will create real wealth over the long term. The first step to doing that is understanding that this needs to be done, and electing the leadership to start doing it. And in this we are lucky: the next election is less than a month away, and we have a candidate in Barack Obama with the knowledge, the intelligence, the temperament and the political ability to get us started on the path we need to take.

But probably before that, the governments of the world are probably going to have to pass a preliminary test. They are going to have to work in concert to stabilize the global financial system. So far this crisis-laden week, the record is spotty. The European Union, which has succeeded in unifying enough to guarantee peace on a continent that pretty much sparked two world wars, is so far failing to meet this crisis as a single entity, as a United States of Europe, or even to coordinate effectively.

There was talk Thursday that the U.S. and the U.K. may coordinate policies on banks. There are meetings ahead. That George Bush is involved is not a hopeful sign, but perhaps there are statesmen (of both genders) who will step up.

Still, it seems to me what we are seeing in essence is a purging. Virtually all of the economic orthodoxies beginning with Reaganism are being destroyed, including the consumer economy forged in those years.

At the same time, let's remember that we had a good economy in the 1950s and 1960s that included real production as well as consumption, and more equal roles for government and the "private sector" of corporations and small business. It's not impossible. We need to move to that kind of balance, but in a whole new way: a sustainable, renewable, green economy that can create real wealth over the very long term.

Obama's Presidential Debate

By every measure--polls, focus groups, pundits--Barack Obama triumphed in the second presidential debate on Tuesday night. On the economy, the new energy economy, health care as a right, the need for national service, the Climate Crisis, the moral obligation to help stop genocide in Darfur, ending the Iraq war, Obama gave clear and persuasive answers. One indication of this was a focus group covered by Time's Amy Sullivan: "Even more dramatic was the shift in the voters’ personal reactions to the two candidates. Before the debate, McCain had a 48/46 favorability rating; that improved to 56/36 by the end. But that’s about where Obama started the evening—54/36. After an hour and a half, Obama’s favorability numbers were 80/14. As Joe Biden would say, let me repeat that: 80% of the undecided voters had favorable views of Obama and only 14% saw him negatively for a net rating of +66. Not even Bill Clinton got such a warm response in town hall formats."

Obama: "I'm going to keep talking about the economy"

About 4 minutes from Obama's speech in North Carolina on Monday.

Come on for the Rising

Bruce Springsteen in Philadelphia on Saturday.

GOT VOTE?

In many states, Monday is the last day to register to vote in this election. If you are not registered, you've got Monday or you've got no vote in this historic election. Do it! (That's the Boss, Bruce Springsteen, singing for a registration rally in Philadelphia in those first two photos.)

Happy Anniversary, Barack & Michelle

When Barack called it their 15th anniversary (it's actually their 16th), he made Keith's "Worst Persons" list. But apparently it was Michelle who forgot their 15th last year. That's Barack buying her flowers yesterday--they're celebrating in Chicago today. Then a wedding photo, the family this year, and Barack and Michelle after the first debate last Friday. Happy Anniversary!

Palin Lies About Darfur

Of all the "misstatements" and lies VP candidate Palin told or repeated in last night's debate, there is one that is truly immoral.

Palin made a big point of saying she supported a measure in Alaska for that state to divest its portfolio of investments in Sudan, because of that nation's sponsorship of those committing genocide in Darfur. She made it sound as if she backed it, it passed and was now being carried out in Alaska.

It's all lies. Her administration opposed it. Her lack of support--says a co-sponsor--caused the measure to fail.

It's all in this report from ABC News, supported by fact-checking from the Washington Post.

Her revenue commissioner testified against the bill in the legislature, even though it had bipartisan sponsorship. The Democratic co-sponsor was Les Garra, and he told ABC News: "I walked out of that hearing livid," Gara recalled of the February meeting. Because of the Palin administration's opposition to the bill, "We could not get a vote in that committee," he explained. At no point did Palin come out in support of the effort, Gara said.

There was some softening of total opposition later, when the move proved controversial. But the fact is that nothing has yet been done, and right now Alaska holds $22 million in Sudan-linked investment.

Sarah Palin's Alaska is investing in genocide. And before some 70 million Americans, she lied about it.

Update: Two other Palin matters before we forget her for awhile. First, Bill Clinton pointed out in his speech in Florida last week that the next President will need to concentrate on the economy and other domestic crises for at least his first two years, and it will be up to the vice-president to mend fences with world leaders. Think about that for a minute...

Second but not least, Jonathan Turley pointed out Friday evening on Rachel Maddow that VP candidate Palin is the first candidate for president or vice-president who is refusing to honor a lawful subpoena during the campaign. Why is this not a major issue?

Beginning

The House passed the economic rescue package, with some additional Republican votes but even more new Democratic votes, after Barack Obama assured these members that there were provisions in the bill that would allow him to help homeowners and give money back to taxpayers, should he become President.

On the campaign trail, Obama ended his comments on the bill with this: "And the final thing is understanding even if this rescue package works exactly as it should, it’s only the beginning, it’s not the end. Because we still have 150,000 new people who lost their jobs this month, 750,000 since the beginning of this year. We still have a healthcare system that’s broken, we’re still overly reliant on oil from the Middle East and so we’ve still got these structural problems; the fundamentals of the economy aren’t sound and we’re going to have to do a lot of work moving forward.

So if we can stop the bleeding with this package, implement it effectively, and then move forward to deal with the broader problems on Main Street, then hopefully we can get our economy back on track."

Obama in Wisconsin

Obama in La Crosse, Wisconsin on Thursday.
Photo stolen from Al Rodgers (he also has some
interesting debate response captures.) Click photo
to enlarge.

Obama is Winning

Once again, instant polls, focus groups and many pundits--including Republicans-- agreed that Joe Biden won the vice-presidential debate. By maintaining a camera presence and repeating talking points, vp candidate Palin "survived." But as CNN's Bill Schneider said, "Palin's answers do not lack confidence, they lack coherence."

Biden answered questions and Palin's attacks, while Palin avoided answering the moderator's questions and could not defend McCain policies. Biden was most effective in linking McCain to Bush, and in countering Palin's insistence that McCain is a "maverick." Here are the operative quotes from the New York Times account:

“The issue is how different is John McCain’s policy going to be than George Bush’s,” Mr. Biden said. “I haven’t heard how his policy is going to be different on Iran than George Bush’s. I haven’t heard how his policy is going to be different with Israel than George Bush’s. I haven’t heard how his policy in Afghanistan is going to be different than George Bush’s. I haven’t heard how his policy in Pakistan is going to be different than George Bush’s."

“He’s not been a maverick when it comes to education — he has not supported tax cuts and significant changes for people being able to send their kids to college,” Mr. Biden said. “He’s not been a maverick on the war. He’s not been a maverick on virtually anything that generally affects the things that people really talk about.”

The debate's one authentic emotional moment also belonged to Biden--a moment that Huffpost blogger Leah McElrath wrote: "Joe Biden did more for the equality of the sexes with his honest display of paternal emotion during the vice presidential debate than Sarah Palin's presence on the executive ticket has or will ever do." Biden appeared to choke up as he talked about his young son, injured in the auto crash that killed his wife just after he was first elected to the Senate:

“The notion that, somehow, because I’m a man, I don’t know what it’s like to raise two kids alone, I don’t know what it’s like to have a child you’re not sure is going to make it,” Mr. Biden said. “I understand as well as, with all due respect, the governor or anybody else, what it’s like for those people sitting around that kitchen table. And guess what? They’re looking for help.”

In one of the first published "reviews," columnist E. J. Dionne began: "Early in last night's vice-presidential debate, Sarah Palin said that she might not answer the questions as moderator Gwen Ifill posed them. This was the Alaska governor's way of saying she was going to stick to the talking points she had stuffed into her head, no matter what the subject. " He concluded: At the time of her selection, voters were often compared with 'American Idol' watchers who put personality and stage presence above everything else. But it turns out that Americans take the presidency very seriously. And surviving 90 minutes on a stage with Biden did not transform Palin into a plausible president."

Both Obama and Biden showed in their debates that in serious times, they are serious people, and they are ready to confront the grave challenges we face.

But what also impressed me about the instant polls is that they tended to mirror the percentages by which Obama is ahead in the polls. Even Thursday, McCain lost ground in the polls. His campaign is leaving Michigan completely--a state that two weeks ago looked to be the crucial battleground. For the first time, it's all suggested to me that America may have already made up its mind who will be President.

Boomers for Obama

Boomers and seniors care about issues affecting their lives, like health care. But they also care passionately about the future of today's young, and beyond. This 11 minute video addresses both sets of concerns, along with some Obama biography. It's so well done that by watching it you can learn not only why Barack Obama should be President, but something about the boomers and seniors in your life. It's 11 minutes well spent for everyone.

The Senate Steps Up

After the House shocked the markets and the world with the chaos surrounding their proposal and the vote on it Monday, the Senate decided it was time for the adults to deal with it.

And deal they did. The Senate bill has lots of stuff, some of it strengthening oversight and other elements of the House bill that Democrats especially required in order to support it. But statesmanship requires some politics, too, so this bill was loaded with popular programs Senators wanted to vote for anyhow. But along with some of the goofier earmark-like provisions the media passed around on Wednesday, there were provisions that actually will help the economic recovery. For instance, says the NY Times:

Instead of siding with a $700 billion bailout, lawmakers could now say they voted for increased protection for deposits at the neighborhood bank, income tax relief for middle-class taxpayers and aid for schools in rural areas where the federal government owns much of the land.

The approximately $150 billion in new tax breaks, which offer incentives for the use of renewable energy and relieve 24 million households from an estimated $65 billion alternative-minimum tax scheduled to take effect this year... "

Those tax incentives for renewable energy are themselves important, as Tom Friedman has been saying for months, especially to new firms and established ones ready to jump into the renewable energy business, but needing the same sort of help that such industries get in other western countries. And they aren't even new--they have been on the books but were expiring, and Congress hadn't yet renewed them.

As for the bail-out part of it, Paul Krugman is among those who think this bill is necessary, but at best it just stops things from getting very much worse. More will be probably needed to turn things around. On the Senate floor, Obama said "This is what we need to do right now to prevent the possibility of a crisis turning into a catastrophe....passing this bill can't be the end of our work to strengthen the economy, it must be the beginning."

"Now, the fact that we're even here voting on a plan to rescue our economy from the greed and irresponsibility of Wall Street, and some in Washington, is an outrage," Obama said. "It's an outrage to every American who works hard, pays their taxes, and is doing their best every day to make a better life for themselves and their families. And understandably, people are frustrated. They're angry that Wall Street's mistakes have put their tax dollars at risk. And they should be. I'm frustrated and angry, too."

But he used the analogy he has developed on the campaign trail--when your neighbor's house is on fire you first put it out, or it could spread to yours. Then you deal with how it caught on fire.

"We're in a very dangerous situation where financial institutions across this country are afraid to lend money. And if all that meant was the failure of a few banks in New York, that would be one thing. But that's not what it means. What it means is, if we don't act, it will be harder for Americans to get a mortgage for their home or loans they need to buy a car or send their children to college. What it means is that businesses won't be able to get the loans they need to open a new factory or make payroll for their workers. And if they can't make payroll on Friday, then workers are laid off on Monday."

"In other words, this is not just a Wall Street crisis, it's an American crisis."

Obama spoke for 13 minutes on the Senate floor, and his speech sums up the situation. John McCain was also present, but didn't speak. Obama, McCain and Senator Biden all voted for the bill, which passed 74 to 25. The House is expected to be ready to vote on Friday. So far its leaders are optimistic it will pass, but assurances are that it won't be put to a vote until it is certain to pass.

Meanwhile, today's set of national and battleground state polls shows Obama with significant leads.

To the Rescue

After the market meltdown on Monday centered their attention, on Tuesday government officials and legislators quickly put together the pieces of what they hope will be the rescue package for the financial system.

Some critics of the $700 billion bail-out proposal asked for two fairly simple changes they believe will help greatly. One is an accounting change that the SEC agreed to make. The other is a increase in the amount insured by Federal Deposit Insurance, which Barack Obama endorsed Tuesday morning, followed by John McCain and the Bush administration, and which will now be part of the new rescue package to be introduced and perhaps voted on in the Senate Wednesday.

The Senate bill includes some tax cuts and items on energy that legislators say will make the plan more acceptable to already chastened House Republicans. But no details of the plan were available as of Tuesday night.

(For those with long civics class memories, this little trick is possible because, even though the Constitution says that bills on fiscal matters have to originate in the House, this new bill is appended to legislation that the House has already passed.)

The hope is that the Senate will pass this, followed Thursday or Friday by the House. But, you know, stay tuned.

Hope is on the way

Barack Obama before many thousands in Detroit.
He'll be in Nevada today, and back in Michigan Thursday.

What Happens Next?

The bail-out bill aka rescue plan was brought to a vote today because Congress is off for the Jewish holiday tomorrow, and the idea was to reassure the stock markets as soon as possible. Ha ha ha. So if there is still a stock market after tomorrow, Congress gets back to work on Wednesday, reconvening officially on Thursday. Then what happens?

Probably the same bill with some face-saving modifications will be introduced, unless widespread opposition is expressed tomorrow to the extent that it would be a predictable failure. If it isn't reintroduced, or if it fails again, then...

One idea making the rounds is that the Democrats write their own bill and pass it. That will probably take us into next week. Bush is speaking to the nation tomorrow morning when nobody will be listening, except Wall Street, which is who he is really speaking to. If he can announce some executive measures to loosen credit for awhile, the immediate crisis may simmer down. In which case, a Democratic bill makes very good sense, politically as well as economically.

Because the Dems have the votes to pass it, it will then also be a dare to Bush to veto it. This prospect may in fact scare enough Republicans into voting for a slightly modified version of the current bill, or another compromise proposal. Robert Reich suggested in a TV interview that this might be a much more modest and more targeted rescue, amounting to a billion and a half bucks. While all of these are possibilities, the extent of the political revulsion to the idea of a Wall Street bail-out as expressed and assessed on Tuesday--especially in light of the extreme drop in the stock market-- may be the deciding factor. What Bush says in the morning may even influence these decisions, if there's any actual action in it.

Some have argued all along that if the Bush administration really believes the situation is as dangerous as they say, they will come up with administrative measures that deal with the immediate situation, while Congress works in a more deliberative manner to address larger and longer-term consequences. If indeed the administration is going to do that, tomorrow morning would be the time to announce it. Simply pressuring Congress to come back and vote on the same bill is unlikely to work. Meanwhile, the din of competing ideas to address the crisis will only get louder.

Black Monday

The House of Representatives unexpectedly voted down the $700 billion bail-out rescue bill--so surprisingly that John McCain had already taken credit for its passage.

The stock market promptly lost 777 points, with a value of $1.2 trillion.

It was considered a "catastrophic" political defeat for Bush and Republicans, who failed to come up with the votes they promised in the House. However, it may have brought a little sobriety to Wall Street execs and traders, who earlier in the day reportedly fretted that the package wasn't big enough or sweet enough for them.

Barack Obama counselled calm, assuring voters that a rescue package will eventually pass. He continues to insist that this economy must be rebuilt from the bottom up, by changing the emphasis of government from favoring Wall Street and the wealthy, to providing programs (jobs, health care, tax relief, clean energy economics), oversight and incentives that favor Main Street and working families.

It's Your Economic Future

Obama's new one minute ad.

The Big Deal

In a brief speech on the Senate floor, Senator Kent Conrad, Democrat of North Dakota, said: “It’s not just going to be Wall Street. The chairman of the Federal Reserve has told us if the credit lockup continues, three million to four million Americans will lose their jobs in the next six months.”

This quote from a Sunday NY Times story signals what Americans are going to hear as a bail-out agreement is expected to be announced Sunday, and the House is expected to vote on a bill Monday, then the Senate. Administration and Congressional negotiators said that there are no major outstanding issues. But just how much CEO pay will be restricted, for example, or how much help there will be for those facing housing foreclosures, won't be known until the bill is written.

But negotiators felt it was necessary to get this done before the Asian markets open Monday. House Republicans, who stopped a deal on Thursday, are said to be on board now. Senators Obama and McCain had input and were kept informed by phone.

Still ahead however is selling the deal to individual members of Congress, and to the deeply skeptical American people.

Update: It took until Sunday night for House Republicans to sign on, but they finally did. They were careful not to call the plan a bail-out, but a working out of the problem. Just as House Speaker Pelosi described it not as a bail-out but a buy-in. Members of Congress are digesting the more than 100 pages of the final bill, while their leaders are counting votes. More will be known about that tomorrow.

2nd Update: The first of many economic analyses in the New York Times.