Defining the Precipice

 Let us recognize the historical moment, for what it is and what it may become. For what it is, because we are befogged by denial that is natural self-protection, helpful if we successfully whistle past the dark, but it can also make us more vulnerable and less capable. For what it may become, because if the worst happens there will be voices loudly crying out, who could have foreseen this? 

 First: We are in the teeth of an extraordinary infectious disease pandemic, ignored and brutally denied by the Executive branch and effectively--and just as brutally-- ignored by Congress. This pandemic is accompanied by a growing economic crisis, with millions unemployed, losing unemployment insurance lifelines, facing evictions, hunger and collapse.

 At the same time we are on the edge of an extraordinary political and perhaps societal crisis of potentially disturbing proportion. While the current Administration blunders around the margins of the Covid crisis, it is consumed by what is variously described as an attempted coup or official insurrection, trying to scuttle election results and retain the dictator apprentice by any means.

 This is a seriously dangerous combination. The Covid infections, hospitalizations and deaths are just going to get higher for at least the next six weeks. Collapse of the health care system in some places is threatening or underway, and that is almost certainly going to spread. When hospitals are overwhelmed and deaths are doubling in a month’s time, other aspects of society are also threatened, beginning with grocery stores and the food chain. Covid alone—and the failure to confront it as an urgent national crisis—could seriously compromise American society as we know it. But instead of addressing this utterly obvious prospect, the current Chief Executive is denying it in favor of causing a political crisis which looks increasingly like it will threaten the social order for some considerable time to come, all on its own.

 But especially in combination with the Covid crisis in its upcoming darkest days, this political crisis could lead to serious societal breakdowns in the near future. So far the strength of democratic traditions and institutions, and in particular the election officials and the jurists who are doing their jobs (many in both categories are Republicans), are holding things together.  Others with power are responsibly supporting order by their restraint.

 Absent a sudden shocking decision from the US Supreme Court, it appears that the 2020 election results will hold. So apart from a long-term political struggle with potentially devastating effects, the near future threat then becomes the eruption of violence. 

 That it hasn’t happened yet seems to indicate that the residual stability in our society is holding. But the ground for violence is certainly being overtly prepared. That the Michigan Secretary of State, who oversees elections, should face 16 or so armed men outside her home cursing and threatening her in the presence of her four year old son as they decorate the house for Christmas is but the latest incident.

 Behind these threats is the contention made by Republican leaders on every level, as well as the vast majority of Republican voters, completely without credible proof, that the 2020 election results are illegitimate. This has led Heather Cox Richardson to cite the election of 1888 as an historical precedent, when Republicans subverted that election, and in 1892, when they subverted the American economy in order to defeat the Democratic President. It was a series of crises that caused devastating pain, just so that wealthy Republican backers could keep and expand their power.

 But others see an earlier precedent for not only an undemocratic and anti-Constitutional political crisis, but a societal one as well. Rep. James Clyburn calls it insurrection, and so does William Saletan in his Slate piece, “Republicans are the party of Civil War”: 

" The insurrection has been boiling at pro-Trump rallies in the past few weeks. In Georgia, amid chants of “victory or death,” speakers have vowed to “remove” a new Democratic administration, arguing that it “doesn’t have the military on their side.” At a rally led by Donald Trump Jr., a speaker warned, “We’re getting ready to start shooting.” Last weekend in Michigan, a crowd cheered as a member of the Proud Boys declared, “We don’t want a civil war, but we’re already in one. And we’re in it to win it.” In Florida, rally leaders called the election result a “war on our homeland” and pledged, “We will not allow them to fire a man for doing his job perfect.”

 In Arizona, a speaker demanded the imprisonment of President-elect Joe Biden, former President Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton. “We have to protect [Trump] at any cost,” he said. Another speaker denounced House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey, calling for “rebellion” and adding, “I’d love to see half of these people hung by the neck.” The crowd shouted its approval."

 Fueling this mob violence fervor are Trump’s fascistic tactics in a multiple of impeachable offences were he not voted out in a month, from firing or threatening to fire members of his own administration who don’t support his blatant coup attempt, and demanding “the names” of the pitiful two dozen Republican lawmakers the Washington Post found would admit he lost the election, to directly pressuring governors and other officials in battleground states to reverse their state’s voting results, a criminal act.

 The next step is actual violence, and whether it sparks widespread violence. It is not inevitable but the table is set for it. Then in the teeth of pandemic we are in brand new territory, at least since the Civil War. What would be the state and federal response? If a Trump “enemy” is murdered, will he pardon the murderers?

 More Saletan: "Some zealots are already taking action. They’ve targeted election supervisors in several states, issuing death threats against officials in Vermont, calling for violence against the family of Arizona’s secretary of state, and orchestrating a hunt for a voting machine contractor who is now in hiding. On Monday, Gabriel Sterling, the Republican manager of Georgia’s elections, reported a death threat against an election worker, harassment of the worker’s family, and sexual threats against Raffensperger’s wife. “Stop inspiring people to commit potential acts of violence,” Sterling pleaded, addressing Trump at a televised briefing. “Someone’s going to get shot. Someone’s going to get killed.”

 That night, on Twitter, Trump posted a video of Sterling’s plea. He dismissed it. He accused Raffensperger and Kemp of knowing about, and refusing to uncover, “massive voter fraud.” The next day, in a speech recorded at the White House, he denounced both men again. And at Wednesday’s rally in Georgia, Wood and Powell, accompanied by Flynn, joined the attack. Wood accused Sterling of conspiring with China to manipulate the election. He demanded that Kemp and Raffensperger be thrown in jail. “We’re going to slay Goliath, the communists, the liberals,” he vowed. “Joe Biden will never set foot in the Oval Office.”

 So far it’s limited to incendiary talk, and not a lot of people.  But the matches—and the guns—are real.