It's Kamala

Update 6/18: Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota has withdrawn her name from consideration for Dem v.p.  She reportedly told presidential candidate Biden that he should choose a woman of color as his running mate. Senator Klobuchar repeated all this in a TV interview Thursday evening.  With Juneteenth tomorrow, it will be interesting to see if Senator Warren feels the need to do the same.  Meanwhile, a new poll finds "59% of Democratic primary voters believe having a woman of color as Joe Biden’s running mate would increase the ticket’s chances of victory."

The din of pointless stories on presidential candidate Joe Biden's choice of a vice-presidential running mate is getting louder but no more informative. Because nobody knows anything.

But if you actually listen to what Biden has said on the subject, there is at this point still only one likely choice: Senator Kamala Harris.  And I will be beyond surprised if, barring some problem in the vetting, it isn't her.

Biden has said three relevant things.  In direct response to questions about his v.p. he's said that his choice has to be ready to assume presidential responsibilities immediately, and that the person has to be "simpatico."

Biden's third relevant statement is that he hopes to be the transition to a new generation of leaders.

Senator Harris ran for President and participated in presidential debates, showing her grasp of the issues a President will face.  Since the murder of George Floyd, pundits suggest a black woman is the most likely choice.  Other black women mentioned have different and relevant experience, and only Susan Rice has actually been involved in presidential decision-making.  But experience with national issues as a senator, familiarity with the ways of the national media, visibility as a presidential candidate and the competency Senator Harris displayed in the debates all count heavily in her favor.   Someone thrust into the Presidency must have the immediate confidence of the public.  Senator Harris has a national presence, without being overexposed.

And unlike several if not all of the black women on everybody's short list, Joe Biden already knows her.  They share deep bonds through Biden's beloved son Bo.  Unless there is some massively hidden antipathy and mistrust, on this criterion alone, Senator Harris is the clear choice.

And Kamala Harris is a member of that next generation.  She looks it, she speaks it.  She is both familiar and "new," especially since she's been keeping a low profile lately.  Her choice can bring excitement to the ticket, and so can she as a campaigner.

I wrote previously that Senator Elizabeth Warren or Senator Harris were the most likely choices at this point.  Despite Senator Warren's recent visibility--and a spate of stories suggesting she is the frontrunner for v.p.--I doubt that it will be her.  She is a more divisive choice, with strong adherents who claim Biden would win easily with her, and strong detractors who say Biden would lose with her on the ticket.  If she is selected I would support that---she clearly has the skills to assume the presidency, she has a lot of minority support as well as progressive cred, and she can be a formidable campaigner.  If Biden chooses her, then he must feel that "simpatico" that has not been evident before.

But I don't think she will be the choice.  The optics seem inappropriate for 2020--two white candidates who look old.  She may come across as a partner to Biden, but she may also take too much attention away from him in the campaign.

As for other contenders, there are political consideration.  Atlanta Mayor Bottoms is also on the media's shortlist, but recent events in her city show the political dangers of picking a mayor or governor now in office, who may be embroiled in crises in the middle of a campaign.  That won't happen with the Senator from California.  (And more than incidentally, her Senate seat will remain Democratic in the short term, and very likely in the next election.  To keep Senator Warren's seat will require state legislative action and an uncertain election.)

Kamala Harris is an immediate asset.  She is young, energetic, highly articulate, and by now has actual and sometimes painful experience in a national campaign, as Biden did when he was Obama's v.p. running mate.  And they look really good together.  They've got chemistry.

Senator Harris can be tough and incisive in her words.  But she also has a winning smile--not quite Obama wattage but close--and her vocal timbre is in that range most appealing to the ear. That may seem a bit off the wall but I think it's really important.

She's not the progressive alternative that Senator Warren might be, but given Warren's movement towards the party's center as the rest of the party moves in the progressive direction, there's not much daylight between them anymore.  Given the racial realities of the moment, her nomination is itself progressive.

No one can know what she and Biden have talked about, and if there is any disagreement on policy and procedure that is serious enough to short-circuit this candidacy.  But that's highly unlikely. 2021 is going to be really new territory for everybody, in almost every way.  Biden has shown his ability to respond.  He will need to know she can, too.

There's still more than a month before Biden's deadline for announcing, so things can still change. It's not a foregone conclusion exactly, but at least in my mind, it's Kamala.