Weekend Update: Political Speculations (Updated)

While more is being learned about covid at unprecedented speed, not much is really definitively known.  The news on the nature of the disease, the meaning and reliability of testing, treatment and vaccine is just too confusing as this point. So is the issue of ending or relaxing current restrictions designed to slow the infection rate.

By contrast, the chaos of politics is simpler to talk about.

V.P.  A lot of speculation seems to be for the sake of speculating, i.e. clickbait, just like the vast majority of sports stories about anything in the future.  What's realistic: 2020 presidential nominee Joe Biden promised to name a woman.  In doing so, he is naming the automatic frontrunner for his successor as nominee for President, which could be in 2024.  She will likely be not only younger, but clearly younger.   She represents the next generation.

But in these times she must be seen as ready to assume the presidency at any moment.  This does not seem to be the year for an unknown.  So the most reasonable choice would be another presidential candidate with some sort of resume.

Otherwise, the importance of the administrative experience of a governor is clearer now than ever before.  But the covid crisis is not going to be over in November, and politically I don't think it is possible for a sitting governor--of Michigan, let alone New York--to abandon their state to run for v.p. (or President.)

So that brings us back to the Senators who ran for President and actually got some votes, because votes confer some credibility. The old criterion of running mate bringing their home state is pretty much obsolete.  Probably the last meaningful time it worked was 1960.  Similarly, the idea that Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota helps especially in the Midwest isn't supported by a lot.  It didn't do much for her in Iowa, for example.

A black woman would further motivate black voters.  So the natural choice is Senator Kamala Harris of California.  California has a Democratic governor, and even in a special election it is highly unlikely Democrats will lose the seat. California is the most Democratic state in the nation.

To me the most serious alternative is Amy, who has the edge in experience and media savvy.  I gather that some Democratic pols are uncomfortable with the idea of an East Coast/West Coast ticket when so many battleground states are in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. And it's not like black voters are going to show up for Republicans in droves.

  On the other hand, though Senator Amy Klobuchar has a Democratic governor in Minnesota and so her seat would be safe for awhile, it is less certain in the subsequent election, likely a special election. The presidency won't mean a whole lot unless the Democrats control Congress as well.

 That's even more of a problem for Senator Elizabeth Warren.  Massachusetts has a Republican governor, and so Democrats would lose her seat at least until an election, which could be crucial.   Otherwise Warren would be a stronger possibility today, because of the covid crisis, and her obvious competence to address it.  But there are other ways she can be important to covid crisis efforts.  Perhaps as a cabinet officer or White House advisor, or if she remains in the Senate, as an unofficial but important advisor to a President Biden.

Update: A new poll is good news for Elizabeth Warren's chances.  In the important midwestern swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin, Warren ran ahead of Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar (the others in the top three.)  Black voters preferred Stacey Abrams but the significant news (if the poll holds up) is that "Warren reflected the most consistent support among white and black voters in both states.”

Georgia rep Stacey Abrams is experiencing a boomlet, with a New York Times columnist's endorsement and her own surprising expression of eagerness.  But in these times, her limited resume in Georgia may not inspire voter confidence.  She is articulate and dynamic, and likely would appeal to important segments of the electorate.  But after the ongoing catastrophe of an unprepared president, that may not justify the risk in many voters minds.  I don't think she'll be the nominee this time.

Red flags that show up in vetting aside, it's likely Senator Kamala Harris,  or Senator Amy Klobuchar.  But with the Michigan and Wisconsin poll results, Elizabeth Warren is heading up the charts.

On Bernie.  Already Senator Bernie Sanders has done more to support Joe Biden than he did for Hillary.  That seems to be due in large measure to Barack Obama, who reportedly had longer and more candid discussions with Sanders than he did during his administration.

Once Bernie saw that the tide was not going to turn back his way after Super Tuesday, he had to get used to the idea that he is never going to be President. This comes just after the first period of his life in which it seemed he had a pretty good chance of being President.  Now he has to decide what he wants to do, if Biden wins.  I'd be surprised if that discussion hasn't started.

The other Democratic presidential candidates have to think about this, too.  Once the vp nominee is decided, that will especially be the case for the women candidates who aren't the nominee.  Will they stay in the Senate, or join the administration, and in what capacity?  That will partly depend on what the Senate looks like as a result of the election: if the Democrats control, by how much?

On Joe.  Already the complaints, including that he's not visible enough.  But that belies the fact that he got the nomination while being virtually invisible.  VP Biden is a known quantity.  Otherwise, his candidacy is a repository for all the despair and anger of those who need to put Trump in the rear view mirror.  Remaining relatively invisible is exactly where he should be right now.  It heightens the impact of his emergence in the actual campaign.  Anyway, it's not as if he's hiding or silent.  It's just that the news media feel required to prioritize reporting Trump's latest bombastic idiocy.  And insofar as he thinks ahead at all, Trump knows it.