Saturday, September 08, 2018

Don't Cheer. Vote.

"As FDR said, the Presidency is primarily a place of moral leadership.  Now the ex-Presidency is that place for moral leadership--and the contrast between an ex-President of impeccable character and proven good judgment, and the current President, who has the lowest character of anyone who ever held the office, is very striking."
Jonathan Alter
on The Last Word

President Obama's address at the University of Illinois was the substantive beginning of his campaign to urge voters to "save democracy" in what he called the most important election of his lifetime, this November.

Speaking to a university student audience allowed him to articulate a vision of American history and politics along with enough soundbites concerning current threats to the Republic for media dissemination.  But the entire speech was necessary to provide context for the future speeches he will make for specific candidates, and also because it made a thoughtful, scholarly and yet passionate case for his university audience, some (many?) of whom have never voted.

For this was a speech directed to millennials and younger.  As President Obama said, the students' generation is now the single largest voting generation in America, and (though he didn't say it directly) it has the worst record of voting.  He noted that in the last non-presidential year election, only 20% of millennials voted. Polls for this year still show a relatively poor proportion of millennials who plan to vote.

President Obama is uniquely qualified to make this appeal, apart from his ability to articulate a context and yet speak directly to their concerns and attitudes.  In a recent Pew poll, President Obama got more votes as the best President "in my lifetime" than any other.  But fully 62% of millennials chose Obama.  Although their list of possibilities was shorter, no other generation gave such a high proportion of their votes to one President.

He told them directly: holding out for perfection or a savior candidate doesn't work.  Not voting out of cynicism about the process doesn't work. If you wonder what the consequences of not voting are, look around.

 He told them: this is not normal.  This is dangerous.  What has happened to the Republican party?  What is happening to America?

If President Obama can motivate even 50% of millennials to vote, this will make the Blue Wave real, and the Senate as well as the House majority could be the result.

Saturday he will be in Orange County, which some say holds the fate of the House majority.  In specific races, President Obama will draw attention to the many women candidates, and the candidates who once worked for him, among other candidates.  He will motivate voters of color everywhere.

Some worry about the danger that he will also motivate the anti-president's base.  In recent mid-term elections, a greater proportion of Republicans voted than Democrats, and the non-base voters stayed home.  Getting more people to vote is the key to these elections.  There's not too many potential Democratic voters who are going to stay home because President Obama is out campaigning.

It doesn't matter how many of the anti-president's rabid base vote, as long as more people vote. And in particular races, a lot more people.

Apart from the predictable sniping from Republicans and their media outlets, the overall response to President Obama's first speech suggests that Jonathan Alter is right: the moral contrast--as well as the intellectual and temperamental contrast--between President Obama and the anti-president cuts across party lines.

Commentators kept saying that President Obama's campaigning is unprecedented for an ex-President.  I'm not sure that's entirely true, but they are also saying that the extent of the current anti-President's schedule of campaign appearances is also unprecedented.  Media is very likely to treat this as a one-on-one contest.  The current occupant of the White House has never had to run against Barack Obama. I like our chances.

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