Saturday, November 05, 2016

The Donald Chronicles: A Make It or Break It Moment. And Break It Means BREAK IT

Welcome to your Schizophrenic Election News, where we alternate intimations of doomsday with the sunny side of the street.

I'll just start with Friday's positives, some of which I tackily tacked on to the last doomsday piece.

In the half dozen or so national polls issued Friday, Hillary had a small lead of 1-5 points.  Recall that the last polls taken in 2012 showed President Obama with a 1.8 lead.  ABC: Support for Donald Trump has slipped to its lowest in 10 days and enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton has recovered from its apparent damage by the latest FBI email investigation.

More to the point, the state polls look good.  Trump looks like he no longer has mo.  Hillary is ahead where she needs to be.

Several reports of more--and in some cases much more-- than usual Latino early voting.  And there's this:

BUZZ -- TUESDAY: AN EARLY NIGHT? -- Here’s one theory bouncing around the reporter and political campaign consultant world: Despite the recent tightening of the race, election night could be super boring. If Nevada political guru Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) is right -- and he usually is -- Hillary Clinton has all but won that state. If she takes Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Virginia -- all states where she seems to have a lead, or is building one through early voting -- Donald Trump can win Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado and New Hampshire and still lose.
PLUS, if you believe Steve Schale (@steveschale), one of the top Democratic consultants in Florida, he says Democrats are doing well: They have built a 161,000 vote margin in Broward County, and 170,000 more Hispanics voted early as of yesterday than voted early in the entire 2012 election. Schale says 70 percent of the Florida vote will be in by Sunday.
KEY LINE from Alex Burns and JMart’s A1 story: “Robby Mook, told donors on a conference call Thursday that the campaign expected to win Florida and North Carolina in large part because of Hispanic turnout. In Nevada, a third diverse battleground state, Mr. Mook said he no longer saw a path for Mr. Trump to win there.”

Of that other list, Colorado and Wisconsin are almost certainly going for Hillary. The extent of early voting may make this a different kind of election.

What's especially troubling about New Hampshire and Iowa seemingly tilting towards Trump is that these are largely white states.  This racial divide is getting way too close to total.  (But I don't quite believe Clinton losing New Hampshire.)

Then there's where the candidates are going. Trump is holding his big rallies in small places, in deep red zones.  Clinton and team are concentrating in swing states where early voting is underway, with some final touches to firm up blue ground, ending in a Hillary & Bill, Michelle & Barack reunion in Philadelphia.

Hillary began making her closing statement in Pittsburgh: "Sometimes the fate of the greatest nations comes down to single moments in time. This is one of those make-or-break moments," she said. "It is in your hands. And when your kids and your grandkids ask what you did in 2016 when everything was on the line, I hope you'll be able to say: I voted for a better, stronger, fairer America."

President Obama was in North Carolina where things sort got out of hand.  That a crowd on his side would ignore a President of the United States for a couple of minutes as they drowned out a protestor (which was pretty easy, since he was silent) suggests how at the edge everybody is.

  Josh Marshall has posted the video as the President told the crowd to focus, to honor the man's right to protest, his evident military service and his advanced age, and to stop booing and vote.  But he's also paired it with Donald Trump's description of what happened.  Compare the "elegant illustration of who [Obama] is" with the lying hate-filled Donald--"that damaged, stupid man."

Sure, as it turns out Melania Trump worked in the US illegally for at least a little while, but the hypocrisy of dissing other immigrants whose illegal jobs aren't high priced modeling pales in comparison to the disease that is Donald.

By the way, I have no idea why this Newsweek cover story isn't a Thing:

Over the course of decades, Donald Trump’s companies have systematically destroyed or hidden thousands of emails, digital records and paper documents demanded in official proceedings, often in defiance of court orders. These tactics—exposed by a Newsweek review of thousands of pages of court filings, judicial orders and affidavits from an array of court cases—have enraged judges, prosecutors, opposing lawyers and the many ordinary citizens entangled in litigation with Trump. In each instance, Trump and entities he controlled also erected numerous hurdles that made lawsuits drag on for years, forcing courtroom opponents to spend huge sums of money in legal fees as they struggled—sometimes in vain—to obtain records.

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