Monday, February 29, 2016

Super Monday

Of course it's Super Monday--this day isn't even supposed to exist!  February 29, come on--how often does that happen?

Well, if it's Feb. 29 it must be an election year, and the Super Tuesday voting is completed tomorrow.  Everybody expects Trump and Hillary to win big.  So the expectations game involves how many states, how big.

Looking at state by state evals, there really isn't much good polling--so a lot of those states are guesswork.  Therefore there will be surprises, at least to the pundits.

The expectations game goes a little like this.  Ted Cruz is expected to win/must win Texas, but can he pick up another state, like Arkansas or Oklahoma?  Otherwise, Trump is expected to win everywhere else, and Rubio is not expected to win any state, but to pick up delegates.  So the pundits will be watching: how many states does he come in second?  But if Rubio wins Minnesota, for instance, then he's exceeded expectations. If he wins Virginia, more so.  If Cruz loses Texas, he's done.

If Rubio and/or Cruz exceed expectations, and Trump's delegate total is around 200, then the screaming really gets loud.  If Trump's total is 300 or more, it's Trumpet fanfares in the Tower; taps, fear and loathing for the rest.

If there's any voter revolt over Trump's Know Nothingisms, it is likely to show up in Minnesota and maybe Virginia or even Massachusetts. If the increasingly beleaguered Trump doesn't win everywhere, the noise gets louder.  If he does, it will sound like the GOPer death march, though Trump's aura of invulnerability will resume.  How justified that is depends in part on how many of these states have early voting.  And how much expected stormy weather affects turnout.

On the Dems, Bernie Sanders is given Vermont, and maybe Colorado and Oklahoma.  Oklahoma seems like a stretch to me. Hillary has raised more money in Okla than all the other candidates in both parties combined. If Hillary wins one or both of the latter, she's exceeded expectations.  If Bernie picks these up, and especially if he gets Massachusetts as well, it's doubting Hillary time again.

Republican candidate frenzy--with Trump and Rubio attacking each other in ways that would get an 11 year old called immature--are they helping either of them?  Or hurting both?  Trust the pundits to plumb the returns for answers, as will their respective consultants.

And yes, I hate myself for following this.  On the other hand, I am enjoying following the Golden State Warriors.

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