Pre-Debate

A few nervous late afternoon notes before the debate...

Reports out of CNN say the Romney camp is forecasting what I suggested Romney should do if he's smart: be bland.  Or in their words, presidential.  He may be playing for a draw.  So it's going to be up to the questions and to President Obama to make the differences clear. 

The debate is the last event on the campaign schedule.  Apparently President Obama did not get a bump out of the second debate, which polls show that he won comfortably. So what's driving us nuts is that the tightening of the polls has no real world reason to it. The Romney campaign now seems predicated on a national move towards Romney that has no event or rhyme or reason behind it.  He continues to change positions to muddy the waters and appear more electable.  It's a sales job, and I'm sure the money is being poured into those swing states.

Today's polls show a popular vote race that is essentially tied, and it's below 50-50, so some4- 6% of the electorate that intends to vote, doesn't know yet who they are voting for, according to these polls.  The polls are tightening in the swing states, too, including Ohio, though President Obama still leads there.  The NBC poll that shows a 47-47 tie (the 47% indeed!)with likely voters also shows President Obama with an electoral vote lead sufficient to retain the presidency. Nate Silver is still giving President Obama a 67% chance.  But the key for everybody remains Ohio.  Today's standard pundit line is that if the polls remain this close they aren't going to tell us much anymore, and it's going to be a very long election night.

The shoe that hasn't dropped:  Apart from the primary endorsements of the Kennedys, probably the most important endorsement in 2008 for Obama was Colin Powell.  It's not clear he has the influence four years later that he did then, but he has not endorsed this year.  He's criticized Romney's foreign policy statements.  He could be waiting until after the foreign policy debate tonight.  But in a race perceived to be this close, a Colin Powell endorsement of President Obama could help.

The ABC poll shows Romney drawing even on foreign policy, which is mind-boggling, not to mention highly dangerous.  Even though his Gerald Ford moment on Libya hasn't seemed to hurt him, let's hope it becomes clear tonight just how dangerous he is.