Real Time

Lincoln Park, New Jersey

With the effects of Hurricane Irene still being felt, the postmortems on the forecasts has begun.  I've seen at least three major articles, none of which has much to say beyond the obvious.  Once again, the relationship of this huge storm to Climate Crisis conditions is suggested, but is not "proved."

There are two certainties about this storm, and about any storm, flood, heat wave, etc.  First, someone will call it a "wake-up call" and expect immediate changes sweeping through Washington to take the Climate Crisis seriously.  But as long as fossil fuel money controls the GOPer brain, that kind of consensus is unlikely.  Second, even scientists will deny that the extent or behavior of this storm--of any storm--"proves" that the Climate Crisis is involved, or is real.  But the question isn't proof, and never has been.

Other scientists who go at it the other way around, see the relationship.  They know the Climate Crisis is real, and they know that certain phenomena associated with this storm is both generally consistent with Climate Crisis models and adds to the knowledge base of what specific effects we might expect.  A few of the relationships are outlined here.  Others will be discussed and studied in the coming months.

But just consider this: no one knew for certain what Irene would do.  Yet it was generally known that wind, storm surges, and rain were going to be destructive and life-threatening.  So places in most danger were evacuated, response teams were organized and put in place, precautions taken by government, businesses and families.  All without 100% certainty.  Well, something like 97% of climate scientists agree on the general cause and consequence of the Climate Crisis.  Shouldn't that be enough to take action?  

And consider the context of this storm.  It was more destructive because a lot of the East Coast has been very wet lately.  A lot of rain, and (in New England especially) a lot of flooding.  According to Dr. Jeff Masters: Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.

While this part of the country has been very wet, other parts are parched to the point of drought.  Continuing heat and drought in southern California have officials very worried about fires.  And of the state of ace Climate Crisis denier Cowboy Rick, Dr. Masters writes that Houston hit 109F Saturday, tying the record as the hottest day in the city's history.   "This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today."

If the science--the physics, the chemistry--of the Climate Crisis were correct, these are the things that would be happening.  And they are happening.  Record after record gets broken, disaster after disaster deforms lives and depletes resources, but there's nothing to see here, move along, pardner.