The Problem with Polls, Eugene McCarthy Told Me

"The problem with polls," Eugene McCarthy told me, "is that your campaign reads them."

While looking for something else, I ran across this quote in an old story I did for the Boston Phoenix. But it certainly jumped out, in view of this week--the worst polling week of the campaign for Obama.

McCarthy had been saying that polls weren't always accurate, they weren't always relevant, and the only poll that counted was on election day. But if they were good, your campaign people could get complacent. And if they were bad, they could get discouraged. Both are bad, but this year in particular, discouragement is worse.

Everybody knew that if John McCain was ever going to move up in the polls it would be this week, with his convention bump. Of course, many Obama supporters were hoping it wouldn't happen, in which case the election would seem pretty much in the bag. Now they may be worried that the polls will stay favorable to McCain, especially since there isn't another big event on the horizon that might change them, at least until the first debate. (And if McCain's numbers go down before then, Chuck Todd of NBC says, it suggests that the Palin Effect is wearing off. Because most if not all of McCain's bump is due to Palin.)

There are lots of questions about these polls anyway. They may have oversampled Republicans (there are undeniably more GOPers in the latest Gallup poll than there were in July's,) and don't reflect Democratic registration gains. Still, the movement for McCain has resulted in him coming closer, or moving only slightly ahead. And while a number of favorables for McCain jumped up in the NBC poll, they also increased for Obama--often pushing him over the 50% mark.

But bad poll numbers can discourage people in their first campaign, who aren't used to the ups and downs. They can discourage veteran campaigners and observers, as we "catastrophize," and recall again the bewildering behavior of voters in every presidential election since Jimmy Carter, except two. It evokes our fears that voters aren't taking this seriously, that they look at this election with all the seriousness of voting for an American Idol.

There's nothing wrong with a little motivating fear. But this year in particular, any real discouragement and consequent lack of optimistic action could be deadly.

Why? Because (I believe) this election is going to be won on enthusiasm.

It's a change election. The electorate itself is changing, as America is becoming more diverse and more young people are getting politically aware and involved. But we may not be past the point of no return yet. The people who have been running things are powerful and they aren't giving up.

Enthusiasm is particularly important for the two most crucial segments of the electorate for Obama's victory: young people and African Americans.

If young people become defeatist, turn bitter and cynical, they not only may fail to vote in sufficient numbers, but they deprive the campaign of the energy and enthusiasm that fuels voter registration and get-out-the-vote efforts. Young voters represent the future that everybody should be voting on.

The African American vote is also imperiled by discouragement. I saw Oakland CA performer and activist Donald Lacy do his one-man show, "Color Struck," this past weekend. From the stage he expressed wonderment at Obama's nomination, but couldn't quite believe that America is going to elect a black man to the presidency. After the performance he came out into the lobby wearing an Obama t-shirt. But in conversation he seemed even more skeptical. Somehow, Obama is going to be prevented from winning. But...he was still wearing that t-shirt.

From what I've heard before, this seems like a common attitude in the African American community. Their enthusiasm is going to drive them to the polls, or their discouragement is going to keep them home.

That's why the worst thing about polls is that your campaign reads them. Reading them is one thing. Taking them to heart is another.

Obama folks, you can't control the media, or what Obama says or doesn't say. You have power over only yourself. Over what you do, and how you do it. Enthusiasm is infectious. And that's going to be very, very important.

Remember how this started?

Yes, we can.