Political Winds

Two new polls out today agree on a couple of things: the Republicans running for Congress were in trouble even before the Mark Foley matter, and the number one issue on the minds of American voters is Iraq.

Iraq is the top issue selected in both the CNN and NBC polls. Asked by CNN if they'd vote to return Democrats to Congress, 56% said Yes. When asked if they'd vote to return Republicans, 57% said no.

In the NBC poll, Bush's approval is back down to 39%. Asked if they'd vote for Democrats who favor phased withdrawl from Iraq, 57% said yes. Only 27% would support Republicans for their position on Iraq.

As for the political fallout of Foley, Democrats nationally seem content to let Republicans and conservatives snipe at each other, but I expect that the people making campaign ads in races all over the country are searching the archives for footage of the Republican they're running against in the company of Mark Foley. Foley was a major campaigner and fundraiser, so it won't be hard to find the photos and video. Democrats may not know how to fashion an Iraq message. But they know how to hang a scandal around the necks of Republicans. After all, they've been watching Republicans do it for years.

A lot is still going to depend on the ground game in deciding congressional elections. But the Foley matter hits the GOP in its most important constituency, the so-called moral majority. Without a highly motivated and activist religious right, all of the Republicans' marketing sophistication may not be enough.