Captain Future's Log

Getting Out of Iraq

The new Gallup Poll numbers are devastating for GW Bush. Half or more of those polled would not call him honest and do not think he cares about people like them. Some 63% disapprove of Bushonomics, and 58% disapprove of his overall performance as president.

But while the numbers on his handling of the Katrina disaster earn most of the attention, the new numbers on Iraq may prove to be the most devastating.

Let the CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll official story tell it: “ Fifty-nine percent said they considered the 2003 invasion of Iraq a mistake. That figure is the highest recorded in a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll.

Only 39 percent said the invasion of Iraq was the right thing to do. Sixty-three percent said they wanted to see some or all U.S. troops withdrawn from that country.”

There’s evidence everywhere of more and more sentiment in favor of withdrawing the troops, yet no one in Congress (or of course the White House) is offering a credible plan. While Republicans follow their leader to nowhere, Democrats have yet to come to terms with this new reality.

The problem is that Iraq is a no-win situation. Yet it seems to be time to ask the question: which is worse, staying or getting out? It’s probably true that if U.S. troops are withdrawn, it’s likely that something like civil war will break out, and the outcome is likely to be an Islamic state like Iran, dominated by the Sunni Muslins. That’s what the experts say.

But just looking at the headlines from Iraq, it seems that after a Constitution is approved, and voting ensues, and America withdraws some of its forces in a year or so, the outcome will probably be something like a civil war and ultimately an Islamic state like Iran, dominated by Sunni Muslims.

And military experts say that to put down an insurgency like the one in Iraq normally takes from 9 to 12 years.

I don't pretend to be an expert on the region, although it didn’t take an expert to realize that the American occupation would end up this way. But it’s time to hear a plan. There is one suggested by Erik Leaver over at the Yes! Magazine Site. Erik Leaver is policy outreach director for the Foreign Policy In Focus project www.fpif.org at the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, D.C. Here are the basic proposals. Please visit the site to read the rest.

A plan for withdrawal
Once a date for troop withdrawal has been announced, the following steps can facilitate phasing out U.S. involvement and building peace and re­construction:

1. Reduce number of U.S. troops and end offensive operations. As a first step to withdrawal, the U.S. should declare an immediate cease-fire and reduce the number of troops deployed in Iraq. Continuing offensive operations will only escalate the violence and make Iraq less secure and less safe. The U.S. should pull troops out of major cities and shift troop strength to guarding the borders to stem the flow of foreign fighters and money used to fund the resistance. If Iraqi security forces need help maintaining order, they can invite in outside forces.

2. Declare that the U.S. will not maintain a permanent military presence in Iraq. Congress needs to affirm its commitment to a responsible withdrawal of all U.S. troops from Iraq. A congressional resolution clarifying that the U.S. has no plan to control Iraq’s oil, to establish permanent military bases in Iraq, or to suppress Muslims, would deprive insurgents of their central organizing message. Without such a resolution, Iraqis will assume that the U.S. intends to make the occupation a permanent feature of Iraqi life.

3. Hand over the restoration of services to Iraqis. The U.S. government and its contractors have failed to restore public safety, public services, strengthen institutions, or provide jobs. By giving Iraqis control over reconstruction funds, more Iraqis will get jobs and projects will be better targeted to the needs of Iraqis. Lowering the unemployment rate will weaken insurgency recruitment efforts.

4. Put the brakes on fraud, waste, and abuse. Lawmakers should clamp down on the rampant war profiteering that has caused widespread waste, fraud, and abuse. To do this, the U.S. must stop awarding no-bid contracts and open-ended, “cost-plus,” multi-billion dollar contracts such as those awarded to Halliburton and Bechtel, and increase oversight over the military and its contractors.

5. Make reparations. The United States owes a massive financial debt to Iraq. Over time, the obligation must be honored to repay Iraq for the collapse of their economy as a result of the economic sanctions of 1990-2003 and for the damage of the 2003-2005 invasion and occupation. The United States must also follow through on promises of reconstruction funds, beyond the small amount so far released.

6. Enter into negotiations. As with any guerrilla war, the Iraqi resistance is unlikely to be defeated by military means. Political and diplomatic solutions are the keys to ending the violence.