The Real Convention Bump

Election numbers guy Nate Silver had a column during the Dem convention that worked the numbers to show that "There’s one advantage that President Obama has that Mitt Romney probably doesn’t. If he can get a good turnout from his base, he’ll be the heavy favorite to win in November — even if Mr. Romney gets a strong turnout as well."

If registered Dems and Obama voters actually voted at the same rate GOPers do, President Obama would win by a substantial margin.  While Silver says this is unlikely because Dem constituent groups are harder to get to the polls than are those of the GOP, the higher the turnout of these voters, the better President Obama's chances are, even with a high GOP turnout.

Silver related this to the intentions of the Dem convention organizers--to make sure all the component groups got their issues talked about as part of the overall 2012 election agenda.  From just viewing it on TV, my impression was that this intention was fulfilled, and then some. Think about all the elements of the new Democratic coalition and how none of them left Charlotte feeling compromised.

But even more importantly it was a DNC that was both diverse and unified. Not only did groups visibly and happily intermingle and work together, they seemed to be having a great time doing it. It certainly gave me the impression that the convention energized and focused Dems for the work to win, and that showed voters interested enough to watch and troubled enough by Romney that they were safe voting to reelect President Obama.

So far the polls are saying it pretty clearly: the DNC made a difference. But however the polls go, the real difference will be made by the Dems being focused.  In part the "enthusiasm" gap was to me just a product of Obama voters not yet paying attention.  There weren't any primary fights, and the electioneering that was happening in the GOP was a turnoff.  I always thought the DNC would be the moment that got their attention and reminded them of 2008.  Sure, it's a more sober group and time.   But at the convention the commitment was just as strong, and they all saw that in each other. And we saw them seeing that. That can't be bad.  And President Obama closed that deal by so strongly relating 2008 with 2012 and his theme, you are the change.

Independents, undecideds and lonely sane Republicans got plenty of reasons to vote for President Obama during the DNC. But the DNC did its primary job if the Dems are fired up and ready to go.  Because this is likely going to be a turnout election, and Obama voters have to be more determined to even get to vote this year in many places.  That will depend in part in how determined members of various groups are to vote their voice--women especially, but also members of minorities who see what's going on and refuse to be intimidated or insulted. 

The evidence of this is already starting to come in.  In the latest poll President Obama has widened his lead in Ohio, chiefly because of more support and enthusiasm from Democrats.  But regardless of the polls, it's the voting--and the turnout--that counts.