Weekend Update Part 2: Harsh Words for the Killers in Washington

There are certain words and phrases you don't hear in normal political discourse, at least coming from responsible parties.  They are saved for extreme situations.

"Crimes against humanity" is a term of art in international law describing, for example, what Nazi war criminals did in the Holocaust.

The phrase "fomenting domestic rebellion" is also a legal term of art, indicating a violation of the US Constitution, and a treasonous act.

The charge of "dereliction of duty" is military but has been applied more widely, to indicate serious lapses of responsibility by those sworn to serve the public.

All three charges were made against Trump this past week and this weekend, for three different acts.

When Trump cut off US funding to the World Health Organization for his own trumped-up reasons, hampering not only covid crisis efforts around the world but many other public health programs and therefore essentially killing people, Richard Horton, the editor-in-chief of the Lancet medical journal, wrote that it was "a crime against humanity."

Many others have made the same charge in different words. Washington Post columnist Dana Milbank, for example, calls Trump's charge a "damnable and murderous lie."

When Trump tweeted and spoke in support of rebellious demonstrators (mostly his political supporters) demanding an end to covid crisis restrictions in several states, Governor Jay Inslee of Washington issued an official statement which said in part: "The president is fomenting domestic rebellion and spreading lies even while his own administration says the virus is real and is deadly, and that we have a long way to go before restrictions can be lifted.."

“His words are likely to cause COVID-19 infections to spike in places where social distancing is working — and if infections are increasing in those places, that will further postpone the 14 days of decline that his own guidance says is necessary before modifying any interventions.”

This on a day in which there was no decline but a new one-day record for covid 19 deaths in the US: 4,591.

The other major criteria for ending restrictions is widespread testing for the coronavirus, and the knowledge gained by such testing.  But after months of insufficient effort and no real federal commitment from this administration, tests are not widely available, not even to test the sick let alone everyone.

The administration claims this is the states responsibility, but it is beyond the resources of a single state. There are not enough tests, and no national standards for tests.  All of this erupted in a phone call with Democratic Senators by vp Pence and other administration figures tasked with managing covid crisis response.

During the call, Senator Angus King of Maine, reportedly said "I have never been so mad about a phone call in all my life," and called the failure of the administration to provide testing a "dereliction of duty."  King ran and won as an Independent, both for governor and then senator, though he aligns with Democrats.

This looks like another dangerous moment.  Trump has empowered right wing governors and is agitating his supporters, the far right is feeling it again, people are understandably looking for hope and good news and a return to a more normal life (though polls suggest an overwhelming majority still supports stay-at-home orders.)  Ending restrictions too early, without adequate resources and plans, let alone knowledge, will increase suffering and deaths.

 At the very best that can be said about him, Trump has lost his nerve.  His actions merit the serious allegations made against him.  But it is the innocent who will suffer the consequences.

Weekend Update: Political Speculations (Updated)

While more is being learned about covid at unprecedented speed, not much is really definitively known.  The news on the nature of the disease, the meaning and reliability of testing, treatment and vaccine is just too confusing as this point. So is the issue of ending or relaxing current restrictions designed to slow the infection rate.

By contrast, the chaos of politics is simpler to talk about.

V.P.  A lot of speculation seems to be for the sake of speculating, i.e. clickbait, just like the vast majority of sports stories about anything in the future.  What's realistic: 2020 presidential nominee Joe Biden promised to name a woman.  In doing so, he is naming the automatic frontrunner for his successor as nominee for President, which could be in 2024.  She will likely be not only younger, but clearly younger.   She represents the next generation.

But in these times she must be seen as ready to assume the presidency at any moment.  This does not seem to be the year for an unknown.  So the most reasonable choice would be another presidential candidate with some sort of resume.

Otherwise, the importance of the administrative experience of a governor is clearer now than ever before.  But the covid crisis is not going to be over in November, and politically I don't think it is possible for a sitting governor--of Michigan, let alone New York--to abandon their state to run for v.p. (or President.)

So that brings us back to the Senators who ran for President and actually got some votes, because votes confer some credibility. The old criterion of running mate bringing their home state is pretty much obsolete.  Probably the last meaningful time it worked was 1960.  Similarly, the idea that Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota helps especially in the Midwest isn't supported by a lot.  It didn't do much for her in Iowa, for example.

A black woman would further motivate black voters.  So the natural choice is Senator Kamala Harris of California.  California has a Democratic governor, and even in a special election it is highly unlikely Democrats will lose the seat. California is the most Democratic state in the nation.

To me the most serious alternative is Amy, who has the edge in experience and media savvy.  I gather that some Democratic pols are uncomfortable with the idea of an East Coast/West Coast ticket when so many battleground states are in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. And it's not like black voters are going to show up for Republicans in droves.

  On the other hand, though Senator Amy Klobuchar has a Democratic governor in Minnesota and so her seat would be safe for awhile, it is less certain in the subsequent election, likely a special election. The presidency won't mean a whole lot unless the Democrats control Congress as well.

 That's even more of a problem for Senator Elizabeth Warren.  Massachusetts has a Republican governor, and so Democrats would lose her seat at least until an election, which could be crucial.   Otherwise Warren would be a stronger possibility today, because of the covid crisis, and her obvious competence to address it.  But there are other ways she can be important to covid crisis efforts.  Perhaps as a cabinet officer or White House advisor, or if she remains in the Senate, as an unofficial but important advisor to a President Biden.

Update: A new poll is good news for Elizabeth Warren's chances.  In the important midwestern swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin, Warren ran ahead of Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar (the others in the top three.)  Black voters preferred Stacey Abrams but the significant news (if the poll holds up) is that "Warren reflected the most consistent support among white and black voters in both states.”

Georgia rep Stacey Abrams is experiencing a boomlet, with a New York Times columnist's endorsement and her own surprising expression of eagerness.  But in these times, her limited resume in Georgia may not inspire voter confidence.  She is articulate and dynamic, and likely would appeal to important segments of the electorate.  But after the ongoing catastrophe of an unprepared president, that may not justify the risk in many voters minds.  I don't think she'll be the nominee this time.

Red flags that show up in vetting aside, it's likely Senator Kamala Harris,  or Senator Amy Klobuchar.  But with the Michigan and Wisconsin poll results, Elizabeth Warren is heading up the charts.

On Bernie.  Already Senator Bernie Sanders has done more to support Joe Biden than he did for Hillary.  That seems to be due in large measure to Barack Obama, who reportedly had longer and more candid discussions with Sanders than he did during his administration.

Once Bernie saw that the tide was not going to turn back his way after Super Tuesday, he had to get used to the idea that he is never going to be President. This comes just after the first period of his life in which it seemed he had a pretty good chance of being President.  Now he has to decide what he wants to do, if Biden wins.  I'd be surprised if that discussion hasn't started.

The other Democratic presidential candidates have to think about this, too.  Once the vp nominee is decided, that will especially be the case for the women candidates who aren't the nominee.  Will they stay in the Senate, or join the administration, and in what capacity?  That will partly depend on what the Senate looks like as a result of the election: if the Democrats control, by how much?

On Joe.  Already the complaints, including that he's not visible enough.  But that belies the fact that he got the nomination while being virtually invisible.  VP Biden is a known quantity.  Otherwise, his candidacy is a repository for all the despair and anger of those who need to put Trump in the rear view mirror.  Remaining relatively invisible is exactly where he should be right now.  It heightens the impact of his emergence in the actual campaign.  Anyway, it's not as if he's hiding or silent.  It's just that the news media feel required to prioritize reporting Trump's latest bombastic idiocy.  And insofar as he thinks ahead at all, Trump knows it.

He's Back

The headline was that President Barack Obama officially endorsed Joe Biden for President in 2020.  But this 12 minute video is much more.  It begins with the kind of message on the covid crisis that a President provides.  At last.  It continues with a personal summary about why Joe Biden would make the best President.   But then it goes on to a succinct indictment of the Republican presidency, within a progressive program for the immediate and farther future.  Plus a generous shout-out to Bernie Sanders.

In response to the covid crisis, President Obama called for "leadership that's guided by knowledge and experience; honesty and humility; empathy and grace."  And that leadership should extend beyond "our state capitals and mayors offices. It belongs in the White House."

So the voice we've been missing for almost four years is heard again.  He left the presidency as the most admired man in America, and guess what, he still is.  His silence was partly in service to uniting the Democratic party behind its nominee, and a New York Times article (for one) details how he did so successfully.  Now he's free to speak his mind, and he's not messing around.  We've needed this, particularly now. He's back.

Update: Washington Post gives the video itself a thumbs up review.

Remember Wisconsin

Wisconsin Republican state legislators, backed by Republican majority courts on the state and national level, forced Wisconsin citizens into a deadly and unnecessary decision: risk your life or give up your vote.

They did this for the recent primary election when they refused to call off in-person voting and extend voting by mail, basically to suppress the vote so that the Republican incumbent of the state supreme court would win reelection.  His vote would make it all but certain that the court would uphold throwing thousands of Wisconsin voters off the rolls for the November election.

With the state on covid 19 lockdown, many of the predominantly elderly poll workers would understandably not work.  So over a hundred of polling places in Milwaukee, where much of the black and poor populations reside, were cut down to two.  Polling places in affluent and white areas were pretty much unaffected.

Trying to manipulate the vote for political advantage is hardly unknown in American history.  But not until now has there been a major political party that is openly obstructing the exercise of the vote for potential voters they believe will vote the other way.  Nor has there been a party, or a President, who openly announced that this was a strategy to ensure party dominance.  With easier voting, the apprentice dictator said, no Republican might ever be elected again.

But then came election day, and despite the danger, despite rain and sleet, and hours in long lines, Wisconsin voters who could not get their mail-in or absentee ballots in time, came out and voted.  Turnout was 34%, high for a spring election, and on par with the last presidential nomination spring of 2016.

Interviews with voters on the day told a story that the results announced on Monday confirmed.  Voters were determined to vote no matter what.  And they were angry they were forced into this choice.  And they knew who was responsible.

Among those interviewed by various news media, African American voters in particular were insistent.  They knew of the sacrifices made by their grandparents and great-grandparents, and the deadly obstacles to voting in the South of their heritage.

In elective offices, the Democrats did very well.  Especially in the supreme court election, in which the challenger won handily, only the second to oust an incumbent judge in the past 50 years.  And she won by a lot.  Last year a supreme court seat was decided by a margin of 6,000 votes.  Jill Karofsky won by 163,000.

Joe Biden won the Democratic primary handily, and the next day Bernie Sanders strongly endorsed him, and Tuesday President Barack Obama endorsed him as well, in a video that begins with a truly presidential message on the Covid crisis.

But thousands were disenfranchised in Wisconsin, by the Republican insistence on voting during a pandemic, and by various others means that are becoming all too familiar.

Now Trump and Republicans are engaged in a stealth attack, and an even greater challenge to the November elections.  They not only oppose extending voting by mail, they seek to make it impossible by ending the mail altogether.

The US Postal Service, hit hard by the pandemic and its economics, is in financial trouble.  Trump announced he would veto any pandemic relief bill that included funds to keep the Postal Service in operation.  (This despite a multi-billion dollar bailout of the airline industry.)

Voting by mail is of course impossible without the mail.  And that seems to be what this is about.  The CDC is predicting a second wave of  covid19 epidemic in the fall.  Republicans want to force an entire nation to risk their lives to vote.

The Republican party knows no shame.  Remember Wisconsin, and its unsung heroes who would not be stopped from voting.

Poetry Monday: Mockingbird

The Mockingbird

Look one way and the sun is going down,
Look the other and the moon is rising.
The sparrow's shadow's longer than the lawn.
The bats squeak: "Night is here"; the birds cheep: "Day is gone."
On the willow's highest branch, monopolizing
Day and night, cheeping, squeaking, soaring,
The mockingbird is imitating life.

All day the mockingbird has owned the yard.
As light first woke the world, the sparrows trooped
Onto the seedy lawn: the mockingbird
Chased them off shrieking.  Hour by hour, fighting hard
To make the world his own, he swooped
On thrushes, thrashers, jays, and chickadees--
At noon he drove away a big black cat.

Now, in the moonlight, he sits here and sings.
A thrush is singing, then a thrasher, then a jay---
Then, all at once, a cat begins meowing.
A mockingbird can sound like anything.
He imitates the world he drove away
So well that for a minute, in the moonlight,
Which one's the mockingbird?  which one's the world?

--Randall Jarrell

Randall Jarrell in 1947

Randall Jarrell was an eminent 20th century American poet, critic and author of children's books.  He served in the US Army Air Force in World War II, and his war poems are among his most famous. He was among the few outstanding poets of that war.  His last years were marred by depression, especially triggered by the assassination of President Kennedy in 1963. This poem is from his last book, published in 1965, the year of his death, titled The Lost World.