The CNN poll of likely voters moved from a tie (O-48% R-48%) to Obama-52% Romney-46%. The 8 point margin (and bump) is the biggest movement in a long while, but the best news is the 52%. Any time a candidate gets to 50% and over, it means that more than half are at least open to the possibility of voting for that candidate. Even if he slips back in this poll, the 50% threshold, once achieved, is major.
The August contribution numbers show that the Obama campaign actually outraised the Romney campaign $114 million to $111 million. The Obamas got contributions from 1.1 million donors, including me, which is possibly why my checking account was down to $12 today.
Apart from the number, which means the Obama campaign can remain competitive in the swing states which the Romney campaign bragged they were "carpet bombing" with TV ads this week, there's the additional fact that last month the Romneyryans spent more than they took in. They spent more than a hundred million dollars, and they lost the month, and they're still losing.
Those some commentators suspect that the race has been fundamentally changed by the Dem convention, all we can say for sure is that Obama got a healthy bump. But apart from a certain herd mentality in the media, the odd effect is that this is all it took to unravel more of Romney's party support, at least according to Byron York who reports that GOPer anxiety threatens to turn into a stampede. Mark Halperin, a soft GOPer, seems to agree.
There's already evidence of this in the far right blathersphere. And when a supposed supporter like Gov. John Kasich of Ohio says of Romney's economic plan-- "He says he's got a 53-point plan or whatever, I don't know."--then you've got problems.
The Romney campaign does not seem to be responding well. After going through their latest missteps, Rachel Maddow concluded, "This is either high level genius we don't understand in what they are doing, or they don't know what they are doing."
Meanwhile, the Obama bounce--if that's what it is--is moving on down the line. Elizabeth Warren has moved back up to a tie in MA (she was down 5 before the convention.) Meanwhile, Dems running for House seats get higher approval, while GOPers drop off the cliff.
Andrew Sullivan, Nate Silver and Josh Marshall are among those actually contemplating an Obama landslide. Partly that's because sudden (though explicable) movement in the polls can either be temporary or an early clue to the new direction--they could move even more in that direction and stay there, as voters stampede to Obama.
Well, it was a euphoric afternoon when the CNN and August money numbers came out, and I've always believed in the possibility of an Obama landslide, but there's a long way to go. September is the month when outside events and/or gaffes can alter the race. October is about the debates. And the election is still about turnout and voter suppression.
GOPer suppression efforts are accelerating in the swing states--most outrageously at the moment in Iowa, where the GOPer sec of state wants to declare a 'state of emergency' to purge registration rolls before election day. Hey, why not go straight to martial law?
But where past efforts seem most likely to pay off is Florida. Obama is probably going to be strong enough in Ohio and PA to withstand the efforts there. But things are seriously fucked up in Florida, and we may be in for a 2000 scenario. Frankly if the presidency is in the balance again I don't know how the country survives it.
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