At the moment there are four instant polls that asked who won the presidential debate, and all four say Biden, by margins roughly corresponding to his national poll numbers, or better. Most commentators say this as well, noting it was his sharpest performance. The best that is being said for Trump is that he wasn't as obnoxious as in the first debate, and some Republicans are taking some solace from this, hoping that Trump voters who were uneasy about him were reassured. Maybe. But on balance, no.
Nor did Trump "stop the bleeding" as one network commentator suggested. Instead, Joe Biden sealed the deal. He came across as competent and caring. That's the reassurance any wavering voters are looking for. CNN had a group of 15 or so undecided voters in North Carolina. After the debate, none of them thought Trump won. More importantly, of the nine that said they were now decided, all nine chose Biden.
Of course that's not proof. But it confirms my sense of it. Just about everyone now realizes that the decisive issue is going to be character. On child separations alone, Trump lost the character issue.
But the debate did not produce what I consider the most significant political news of the day. That was the FiveThirtyEight/Nate Silver projection that turnout for the election will total 154 million. The projected range is 144 to 165 million. They saw those voter enthusiasm numbers I pointed out yesterday.
That's a major turnout election. In 2016 turnout was 137 million. Except for maybe a few states and downballot elections, there is nothing about high turnout that is bad for Democrats, especially now. Turnout on the high side tends to validate poll numbers (the mediocre turnout was a major problem in 2016.)
The last round of polls will begin appearing next week, taken after this debate. What turnout on the order of 154 million likely means is that, in figuring margins in state polls and national polls, you should consider Trump's number as the maximum he will get on Nov. 3, and Biden's number as the minimum. Because turnout could be even higher. Then add the early votes (including mail-ins) already sent at about the rate of the polls up to now, which have been pretty consistent nationally, at the proportion of the likely total vote. (Right now it's something like 60 to 80 million votes already cast.)
High turnout most likely means that the candidate with even a 2 or 3 point lead in the final poll for a given state is likely to win that state on Nov. 3, though it does get tricky with votes already cast.
Right now the Houston Chronicle is touting a poll that shows Biden ahead in Texas. The New York Times may be the only outfit to poll Kansas, and they have just found that Biden is down by only 7 points there. Neither of these states should even be close. It's like saying Trump is ahead in New York and down 7 in California. And by the way he's not.
Trump must win Florida, North Carolina and Arizona to have a chance. If Biden wins just one of them, he's all but elected. He could lose them all and still be elected, provided he wins PA and the upper Midwestern states in which he currently leads by 5 to 10 points. But if Trump loses Texas, the Republican party will just about be down to six members of the Supreme Court.
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