I’ve voted, and my vote will be counted in the next few days. Opportunities and rules vary from state to state, but voting has begun—with resolve and enthusiasm.
And a full two weeks before the official Election Day, it has begun big.
That’s especially visible in Early Voting states.
In lines that started forming in Georgia at 4 a.m. on the first day of early voting, with Georgians refusing to leave before casting their ballots, even with 4 hour, 6 hour, 11 hour waits. Think of the determination it takes to do that.
On Monday Floridians lined up in the rain in unprecedented numbers on their first day. Twice as many mail-in votes have been received in Florida than in 2016, more than 2 million. Florida is unusual in that it has a tradition of early voting and mail-ins, predominantly by Republicans. Nobody quite knows what it means that this year there are slightly more Democrats. But at the least it signals Democratic enthusiasm and determination to vote.
On Tuesday, voters lined up in the Wisconsin cold. As the day began, some 30% of the total votes cast there in 2016 had already been cast through absentee ballots. By the end of the day, it was half.
Early voting also broke records in Texas, D.C., Ohio, North Carolina, Minnesota and Virginia—so far, everywhere.
And apparently these are not necessarily all just voters who would have shown up on Election Day anyway. At least 20% of North Carolina early voters didn’t vote in 2016. Early voters are trending younger and more diverse than before, and their numbers and determination suggest a major turnout election, perhaps breaking records.
The revolt of suburban women against Trump is showing up in early voting—for instance in Michigan suburbs, where most voters were Democratic women.
And there’s really something happening in Texas. Despite Texas being the hardest state to vote in, there are signs of huge turnout and interest. In Travis county (which includes Austin) an impossible 97% of eligible voters in the population of some 1.2 million are registered this year. In Bexar County (San Antonio) more than 60% of mail-in votes have already been returned, easily a record.
Texans have also been lining up for early voting, and have already cast the most votes in the nation—a number equal to all the votes that Trump got in Texas in 2016. (In fact this is already the case in 5 states.)
Even in states of confusion, there are positive signs.
Though new (and changing) voting rules are roiling things in Pennsylvania, especially for mail-ins, a record number of (mostly young) poll workers have signed up for Election Day. And that’s also true in other states like Wisconsin, where extra help means faster counts.
As for mail-in votes like mine, all records are certain to be broken. Based on requests even by late September, some officials expect a majority of ballots to be mailed in this year.
Since most of those mail-in ballot requests came from Democrats, what’s left for Election Day but Republicans? That’s a big unknown at the moment, but reporting suggests that a lot of early voters went to polling sites because they don’t trust the Trump-corrupted Postal Service chief. They may continue to do so in November. Similarly, if voters keep hearing and reading of rejected mail-in ballots—one of the biggest unknowable factors this year—they may change their plans and vote in person on November 3.
Even if most of the votes banked before November 3 came from voters who otherwise would have voted anyway, this frees campaign workers to reach out to more potential voters and get them to the polls on November 3.
And if many Democrats have already voted, the expected Election Day thuggery, chicanery, intimidation and suppression won’t have as many targets.
Mail-in votes (at least in states unaccustomed to them) obviously suggest the influence of the Covid Crisis. But early voting, in addition to suggesting worry about the process, are demonstrating that many voters have made up their minds, and probably want to get this all over with.
But another big message of early voting that is becoming clear is this determination to vote. It also suggests a very high turnout election—and that favors Biden and the Democrats everywhere.
So it has begun—but it’s only the beginning.
No comments:
Post a Comment