All this comports with predictions of poli sci types who hang out at Jonathan Bernstein's blog.
Sunday: New polls continue to show an Obama surge, especially national polls. " The final USA Today/Gallup Poll of swing states finds voters "have become as enthusiastic and engaged in the 2012 presidential election as they were in the historic contest four years ago."
Pew has President Obama up 48-45, and all the other polls released Sunday have the President with a slight lead or tied nationally. Several polls show independents coming back to Obama. And some of these polls don't yet reflect the period of the hurricane response, Chris Christie or the NY Mayor's endorsement. State polls in battlegrounds generally show an Obama advantage, however small. Nate Silver increases President Obama's chances of winning the election to 85%.
Saturday:
With his job approval up after last week's hurricane and positive jobs report, President Obama took the biggest lead in the PPP tracking poll that either candidate has taken, at 50% to Romney's 47.
The latest swing state polls: all four show Obama ahead in Ohio, two of two show him ahead in Virginia and in Iowa, and polls of PA, Wisconsin and Michigan show him comfortably ahead. Of 3 Florida polls, one has his ahead, one behind, and one tied. The one poll in Colorado gives Romney a one point edge, with New Hampshire tied.
Meanwhile, desperate GOPers are doing their best to subvert voting in Democratic and minority districts. Early voting in Florida was disrupted twice by bomb threats. The Ohio Secretary of State is trying another ploy to nullify provisional ballots--it's back in court on Monday.
And while a lead essay at Kos quantifies how Obama wins if minorities vote, Politico wimpmeister Mark Halperin writes: "Don't kill me for the obvious, but the near absence of racial diversity in the Romney crowds is teased out further by the contrast with the rainbow the President draws. It is more striking than I have ever experienced it in any presidential campaign I have covered."
The Obama campaign released a memo on their ground game, picked up by several pol outlets. Among the stats: the campaign has registered twice the number of new voters in battleground as in 2008, and nearly 30% of them have already voted. The memo shows the focus and the experience. Pretty impressive.
Meanwhile, Andy Borowitz reports on Romney's November Surprise: dropping $2 billion in small bills over Ohio.
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