President Barack Obama made his last speech of what he says is his last campaign, where his remarkable journey to the Presidency began, in Iowa. After Bruce Springsteen talked and sang, and Michelle Obama introduced him, President Obama blended reminiscences--some of which brought a tear to his eye--with a strong case for his re-election. He sounded his consistent theme: "We are all in this together." There was a John Steinbeck, Grapes of Wrath lilt to his close, as TPM reports:
We’ve made real progress these last four years,” he said. “But, Iowa we’re here tonight because we got more work to do. We’re not done yet on this journey, we’ve got more road to travel. As long as there’s a single American who wants a job but can’t find one, as long as there are families working harder but still falling behind, as long as there’s a child still in Des Moines, anywhere in Iowa, anywhere in this country languishing in poverty, barred from opportunity, our work isn’t done.”
“Children don’t have lobbyists the way oil companies or banks do, but it’s the dreams of those children that will be our saving grace,” he said. “That’s what we fight for. That’s why I need you, Iowa, to make sure their voices are heard.”
He added: “I got a lot more fight left in me. But to wage that fight on behalf of American families, I need you to still have some fight in you, too.”
Earlier on Monday, President Bill Clinton spoke in Market Square in Pittsburgh, which is precisely where I heard him speak in 1992 and shook his hand (or maybe almost. Anyway, I tried.) Clinton has been heroic in his efforts these last few days--it literally brought back "Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow" to the campaign.
Romney will make one of his last stops in Pittsburgh on Tuesday, a last ditch effort to increase his totals in the western part of the state, hoping to offset the Obama tide in Philadelphia. Except Romney won't get out of the airport. Nobody but the Romney campaign and the Rabid Right (who forecast a Romney landslide) thinks it will work.
As for election eve forecasting, the pundit/numbers nerd consensus seems to be that the national polls are converging with the state polls, showing President Obama ahead. If you average polls from the major legitimate pollsters it probably averages out to be about 2 points. Nate Silver now gives President Obama a 91.5% chance of winning.
Looking at the registered voter numbers vs. the likely voter percentages, President Obama's lead is wider. (In the Gallup tracking poll he goes from behind by one to ahead by several.) So if turnout is high and there is less chaos at the polls in certain states than feared, chances are better that the long, long night most pundits are forecasting won't be so very long.
The first polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern. The best of all possible worlds for Obama supporters is that Virginia is called quickly for Obama. That pretty much means the election is over. And if a half hour later, Obama wins North Carolina, pop open the champagne. However, even in 2008 it was hours after polls closed that Virginia was called, and North Carolina wasn't awarded to Obama for days after it even mattered anymore.
If Virginia, NC and Florida are either still out or have gone Romney, despair is not yet in order: the Midwest is where it will then be decided, and President Obama is pretty solid there. There's no telling when Ohio will come in (polls close officially at 7:30, but voting could still continue if there are still lines), and some other midwestern states don't close until 9 p.m.
In 2008, once Florida and Ohio were called it was essentially over, but that was pretty close to 11 p.m., when the West Coast made it official. So even on a night when Obama won many more electoral votes than even the most optimistic forecast this time, it doesn't seem all that likely the suspense will be over by late news time. Maybe, however, by late news time here on the West Coast.
Anyway, the Obama campaign suggests that the longer Florida remains undecided, the better chances they have of ultimately winning it. The voter suppression tactics alone--but also the response to them by voters--makes that state a complete mystery.
It's simplistically true in every election, but there's a point this time in saying the key is turnout. If Obama voters turn out, Obama wins, regardless of how "enthusiastic" Romney voters are. There are a number of possible storylines that could emerge. One would focus on women, and the percentage of their votes for each candidate. And one definitely will focus on Latinos--on turnout.
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