Thursday Recap

The battleground state polls on Thursday continued to show President Obama ahead, except in North Carolina. Romney is moving key staff from North Carolina to Ohio, presumably because they think they've got NC won.  The margin for Obama is thin in Virginia and thinner than before in Colorado, but as people vote and election day gets closer, even 3 point margins start looking big.  One poll had an 8 point margin in Iowa, another a 6 point in Wisconsin.  One even had a 3 point margin in Florida.

The national tracking polls are all basically tied except for Gallup which continues to grow Romney's lead.  Nate Silver sees it as an outlyer, and not inconsistent with Gallup's record of huge (and hugely wrong margins) at this point in 2000 and 2004. 

The internals in one of the state polls--Wisconsin maybe-- suggested that the gender gap is back, big time,with women in favor of President Obama by double digits.  And the poll was taken mostly before the debate.

All the polls on Thursday were taken all or mostly before the debate.  Steve S. at kos says we won't know if there's a debate-related shift until the next debate on Monday. 

I remember hearing about dirty tricks in elections even in the 60s, like the GOPers phoning old people and telling them they can vote by phone, or the age-old tactic of sending voter information to people on the other side with the wrong election date. 

However it does seem to have gotten worse this year, even aside from the blatant voter suppression laws.  It's amazing how open GOPers are about it--especially using their actual public office, their public trust as elected officials of all the people, to mislead voting groups they don't like and discourage them from voting.  This case of a GOP operative caught destroying presumably Dem registrations is probably the tip of the iceberg.   I'm sure it's also being fueled by the amazing amount of raw hate at work in this election.

On Thursday President Obama held a big rally while Bill Clinton and Bruce Springsteen wowed a crowd in Ohio.  Romney apparently did nothing, with but one event Wednesday.  Both President Obama and Romney told jokes at the Al Smith dinner in New York.  Romney's were mostly aimed at the President, and a few were borderline vicious, as well as not funny.  President Obama mostly made fun of himself, though he got some digs in, too.  And he's much better at it.  The dinner of rich Catholics should be Romney country, but the crowd seemed to warm to the President.   

In the realm of it should be relevant, 68 Nobel Laureates in science signed a letter endorsing President Obama.  “President Obama understands the key role science has played in building a prosperous America,” the laureates wrote in a letter that was released on Wednesday. Mr. Obama “has championed investment in science and technology research that is the engine of our economy.” Plus he's also (shhh, don' tell anybody) won a Nobel Prize.  

Not a good day for the SF Giants, a better one for the Niners.  Farewell Yankees and good riddance.