At some point in the days and hours before the debate I dreamt up a line for President Obama to say about the Romney economic plan. "It's a two part plan," President Obama would say (or maybe, v.p. Biden, Bill Clinton, or even Jon Stewart.) "Part one: smoke. Part two: mirrors."
President Obama actually did a variation on this, which while not quite as funny, is maybe more to the point:
"Governor Romney doesn’t have a five point plan. He has a one point plan, and that plan is to make sure that folks at the top play by a different set of rules. That’s been his philosophy in the private sector, that’s been his philosophy as governor, that’s been his philosophy as a presidential candidate. You can make a lot of money and pay lower tax rates than someone who makes less. You can ship jobs overseas and get tax breaks for it. You can invest in a company, bankrupt it, lay off the workers, strip away their pensions, and you still make money. That’s exactly the philosophy that we have seen in place for the last decade. That’s what’s been squeezing middle class families, and we have fought back for four years to get out of that mess. The last thing we need to do is to go back to the very same policies that got us there. "
Last night and early the day after, the chatter was about several important moments in the debate. There was the Libya exchange, when a coldly angry President said he found the charge by Romney and the rabid GOP that he and his administration were playing politics with the Bengazi situation "offensive," and Romney had his Gerald Ford moment with his "gotcha" that got only him:
Also about President Obama's closing, in which he took the opportunity Romney presented him in his closing when he mentioned his concern for "the 100%" to skewer Romney on his "47%" comments:
But apart from deconstructing the new batch of Romney lies (which he added to old ones he repeated), the talk on Wednesday was about women's issues that came up in the debate: contraception, abortion, equal pay, etc., which got folded into the viral soundbite of Romney's "binders full of women."
This went viral for the telling awkwardness of the phrase, but went really big when it was revealed to be another lie--it wasn't Romney but an independent group that supplied the names of qualified women that would have been presented to whoever won as governor that year.
But President Obama hammered at Romney on women's issues at his campaign events, including to 2,000 students at a college in Iowa and a huge crowd in Athens, Ohio. And with good reason, for a survey of women in swing states shows that abortion is far and away at the top of the list of issues they are most concerned about--39% vs. 19% for jobs.
So...what about the impact of the debate? The first poll after the instant polls last night show the perception growing that President Obama won the debate. Preliminary figures suggest the audience for the debate was larger than for the first debate--possibly the largest in history. And don't forget what I mentioned yesterday before the debate that Nate Silver noted: second debates move poll numbers just as much as first debates do, historically. So despite the pundits sort of doubting the poll numbers will now move...I'm saying the poll numbers will start moving, especially in the swing states.
As for current poll numbers, the latest Ohio poll shows a slight increase for President Obama already. And on the worst poll of the day--the national Gallup tracking poll--kos took a look at the crosstabs and found that Obama is actually ahead in every region of the country except the south. Obama is ahead in the East and the Midwest 52-48, and in the West by 53-47. He's fallen further behind in the South--39% to Romney's 61%. These are mostly states Romney was going to win anyway.
In any case, we're probably at or near the nadir. Tracking polls will start to pick up some post-debate sentiment. By next week the swing state polls should reflect post-debate. Even at Romney's high point, Obama remained ahead in Ohio especially, but also in other swing states, though more narrowly than before. In Ohio, he's banked a lot of votes--early voters.
There was one disturbing report on Wednesday speculating that the Obama campaign has given up on Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, and maybe Colorado, because they didn't mention they felt confident about them as they do about Ohio, Iowa and Nevada. I don't buy it. Maybe in another ten days, I wouldn't be shocked to learn that they shifted advertising from N.C. or even Florida--though they have well-prepared ground games in both states they are not going to abandon. But I don't see them ever giving up on Virginia or Colorado.
What about the external reality? And that last jobs report the Friday before election day? When Obama was polling higher, the economic numbers were worse, and they didn't hurt him. Couple that with some upbeat economic news: Retail sales are up, and the housing market is improving faster than experts anticipated. So it seems unlikely that a much worse economy will determine the outcome.
The basic question really is whether Romney can lie his way into the White House. The American people unfortunately have proven susceptible to lies--both Bushes for example proved that. All any of us can do is be as clear as possible about the truth. Fight the good fight. And enjoy the good fight.
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