Another Day After--and the Beginning

The day after the third debate, the preliminary numbers confirm that the audience was down, about 5 million from the second debate, but still more watched than the third debate last time around.  And it's still 59 million people.

The foreign policy debate probably only confirmed the puzzlement in the rest of the world that Romney isn't seen as the clown candidate.  From many on and off record statements, it's clear he is unliked and not respected, even (or especially) among allies.  And this BBC poll confirms that if he were on the ballot anywhere else in the world (except Pakistan) he would lose very very badly to President Obama.  The average in the 21 countries surveyed is Obama 50 Romney 9.

Bob Schieffer is getting generally good reviews for how he moderated the debate.  But apart from the scandalous overlooking of the actual world crisis--the climate crisis--he failed to ask a very key question: who are your foreign policy advisors?  So Romney got away without noting that most of his are Bush's.  And in fact another debate goes by with Bush not being mentioned except in passing.

On the campaign trail the day after, President Obama diagnosed new attacks of Romnesia at the debate (which others call myths and lies)  but also started the last phase of his campaign by introducing a new summary of his second term agenda.  He's been talking about these items all along, but now they're packaged for this final push emphasis.  The ad posted above is a 60 second summary.

Tuesday's polls show a slight Obama trend.  The Obama campaign pushed back on the talk that it was conceding North Carolina or any other swing state, and backed that up with cash.  But there was this interesting and much noticed post by Jonathan Chiat headlined:   Romney Says He’s Winning — It’s a Bluff:

 In recent days, the vibe emanating from Mitt Romney’s campaign has grown downright giddy. Despite a lack of any evident positive momentum over the last week — indeed, in the face of a slight decline from its post-Denver high — the Romney camp is suddenly bursting with talk that it will not only win but win handily. (“We’re going to win,” said one of the former Massachusetts governor’s closest advisers. “Seriously, 305 electoral votes.”)

This is a bluff. Romney is carefully attempting to project an atmosphere of momentum, in the hopes of winning positive media coverage and, thus, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy."

Not only is it a bluff, it is backed up by deliberately deceptive evidence, as Chiat shows.  And as he says, it's a classic Karl Rove tactic.

The polls tell a different story.  And this poll tells a very different story:

The latest Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll finds President Obama moving slightly ahead of Mitt Romney, 47% to 46%. However, Obama "maintains a larger advantage in the state-by-state battle that will determine the outcome of the election. Ipsos projects that Obama holds an edge in the most hotly contested states, including Florida, Virginia and Ohio, and is likely to win by a relatively comfortable margin of 322 electoral votes to 206 electoral votes."

And this, which continues the smart money is on Obama.  Nate Silver has upped President Obama's chances of winning to over 70%.  Two weeks to go.