Uncontrolled Damage

Some campaign questions have been answered.  Do conventions really change anything?  Most professionals said no, but the evidence is that this year they did.  Was the Obama bounce just a bounce?  Maybe, but Romney errors came on so quickly that it's uncertain why, but the bounce clearly became a trend.

How damaging were Romney's 47% remarks?  On Wednesday the first polls taken since then show: very.  Not just the widening leads President Obama shows in the New York Times poll and the Washington Post poll, and even the Gallup tracking poll, but within the polls, to the questions specifically about those remarks.  In general they show that a lot of people are aware of them, and most people did not like them.

What they also reveal is that Romney's core support is down to about a third of likely voters.  So that's the next big question to be answered: is the Obama lead going to settle back down or keep growing?  An item repeated in various political precincts on Wednesday was that the Obama campaign was exploring the possibility of spending some resources on Arizona, where internal polls show a much closer race, though with Romney still slightly ahead.  Arizona has been considered a safe Romney state.  Is Arizona in play?  Are there other states outside the "battleground" that are now within reason for Obama?  If so, the House may also be in play (And Nancy Pelosi makes a good argument that it is anyway.)

Then of course the next big question is: will the debates matter?  In general, the professionals are again saying that debates don't change things.  But that's what they said about conventions.

The Romney campaign is pinning its remaining hopes on the first one.  After his Ohio swing, Romney goes back to not campaigning and reportedly preparing for the debate.  President Obama has scheduled weekend debate prep, but what he really seems to need is some rest.  He's starting to look ragged out there.  If he's rested and relaxed, he'll handle Romney.

Charles Blow adds a few other questions to be answered, which I've also mentioned here before, but since he's a New York Times columnist and I'm not, it's probably worth noting that he asks them: the extent to which voter suppression works and how many of these likely voters are unlikely to be allowed to vote; the media's need to have a different narrative, a turnaround for Romney that could be declared on the slightest pretext: "The media loves a comeback." 

He also mentions the external events that could change the trajectory, but those aren't unanswered questions, they are just potent possibilities. Still, just how steep a hill Romney has to climb just to become relevant becomes clearer every day.  Remember that President Obama won handily in 2008 with a majority of popular votes, but numbers as we're seeing in the swing states--up to 54%--are extraordinary.  But there is that possibility that we'll know more about in the coming week: you ain't seen nothing yet.