Gilligan, "The Stench" and Other Campaign 2012 News

This morning a New York Times/CBS poll shows President Obama widening his lead in the swing states of Ohio and Florida--and well above 50% in both.

President Obama leads in Ohio among likely voters by 10 points, 53-43, and in Florida by 9, 53-44.  In PA he is at 54% to Romney's 42. President Obama has added older voters to the groups he is winning.

Late Tuesday another national poll showed President Obama holding his lead of 6 points, and now beating Romney on handling of the economy by 9 points.  Other battleground state polls in the past two days  haven't changed the trajectory, with Obama holding or extending his leads.  The pressure on the Romneyryan campaign is reportedly now dividing Romney from Ryan.  Romney snapped an answer to 60 Minutes on the Ryan Kill Medicare plan that he was the presidential candidate, not Ryan.  Now there's this Politico report that among his staffers Ryan has fairly openly been referring to Romney as "The Stench," and after being booed at AARP, has decided to go rogue.  Meanwhile, Romney staffers reportedly call Ryan "Gilligan." 

Update: The Politico report referenced above was by Roger Simon, who now claims it was meant to be satiric--that is, it did not happen.  Simon needs a few lessons in writing satire, and it's unlikely that anything he writes in future that has the hint of levity in it will be taken at face value.  However, the Romney distancing himself from Ryan is true, and he has since had to instruct a crowd chanting "Ryan Ryan" that the words to the song were actually "Romneyryan."  Which is so close to satire itself that it's clear why the Simon story was believed.

There's also more evidence that the millions being spent by and for Romney are not having the desired effect.  Also that the Obama campaign has twice as many staffers on the ground than Romney, though both are spending pretty much the same amount.

Josh Marshall writes that the latest polls show that Ohio may be a done deal for President Obama.  Two other observers agree, noting that the Romneyryan bus tours this week must "move the needle" or it's over.  Without Ohio, Romney doesn't have much of a chance.  Early voting begins there next week.

 What we can actually say about all of this is that the Obama bounce is now a solid Obama lead.  If things continue as they are going, Romney is toast, big time.  But I won't be comfortable with the lead until a few days after the first debate.  It's Romney's last chance to change the game himself.  It's highly unlikely he will, but one way he might is by giving totally unexpected answers, becoming the ultimate etch-a-sketch candidate.  Even then it would depend on how adroitly President Obama handles it.  But realistically, the polls show his negatives have hardened.  Switching positions would play into what people already think about him.

In voter suppression news, it now looks more likely that by the end of the week, the Pennsylvania voter suppression law may be null and void. (The NYT poll has Obama up by 12 points in PA.)  However, the Florida situation is so screwed up now that I fear Latino voting will be greatly suppressed.  Fortunately, President Obama has more paths to winning that don't depend on Florida, though he may still win it by a margin well under what the polls suggest.

On Ohio and other midwestern states, a survey of white working class voters (made in August before the conventions) shows that President Obama even then was holding his own or doing better in all regions except the South.  This is largely due to white working class women.  This study also shows that outside the South the white working class is not all in the tank for the Tea Party and doesn't vote on the basis of "social issues."  However, racial appeals of the type we're seeing from GOPers do have some resonance.  (Graph from Mother Jones.)

What happens in the campaign from now on is less consequential due to the spread of early voting, which this year could mean that a third of votes are cast before election day.  It's begun in Iowa, and the Obama campaign has been on it:

For months, staffers and volunteers at the Obama campaign’s more than five dozen Iowa field office have worked relentlessly to encourage Democrats to request absentee ballots, which any registered voter in the state is allowed to fill out and submit before the polls open officially in six weeks.
As of Monday, registered Democrats had requested 109,709 such ballots in Iowa, while Republicans there had requested less than one-fifth of that total (20,458).

The extremism of GOPer Senate candidates in Missouri and Wisconsin (where a tape has surfaced of Tommy Thompson saying he would end Medicare and Medicaid) also make it more likely that Dems will hold the Senate, though regaining the House remains a mathematical stretch.