Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Circus Days: Sneak Preview

Oh oh not again!---what's happening to Mr. Inevitable?  Even after questionable "victories" in Maine (maybe, Iowaitfor it!) and packing the CPAC poll, in the latest round of voter polls he's slightly to considerably behind in Michigan and nationally to--Little Ricky Sanctimonious!  Is Ricky the new star of the Big Top?  Cause no matter how many clowns crowd into the car, only one can come out in the end!  (Or is that a Ricky joke?)

But now that Little Ricky is on Richie Richney's radar (otherwise known as the once and future? Mr. Inevitable!) let the untold millions buy untold thousands of relentlessly negative ads and direct attacks against Sanctimonious!  Oh yes!

Problem is while the negative ads sink Richney's opponents, they also make Richney look like a very unpleasant guy.  His slide has not simply been in the GOPer primary polls--that would be politics as usual--but in his favorability generally.  He could win the nom in the process of becoming unelectable.

He does coin those phrases, though.  Most recently he announced his tenure as MA gov was "severely conservative." Lots of people are making fun of this, and expressing their discomfort, especially as it indicates Richney's inner disdain for the side he's trying so hard to be on--but nobody will quite say why.  The reason probably is that the best known use of "severely" in recent decades was as in "severely retarded."

As for Little Ricky, he wants to say this is a two-man race between him and Richney, which the national polls bear out, just as they said that about Richney and---name that tune.  The test will be Super Tuesday.  If Casino Newt can't win southern states (other than Georgia) then he really is toast.

Meanwhile Little Ricky is boxing himself into opposition to something that 99% of American women do, which is use contraceptives.  He's starting with threatening at least 52% of the electorate, including women Senators in his own party. 

At the end of this circus (don't worry, folks!  There's plenty more to come!) the GOPers will have a nominee, ready to start a new circus for the few months preceding the election, when all current signs point to President Obama's overwhelming reelection.  But stuff could happen outside the circus grounds to change the dynamic.

Now that congressional GOPers have made a deal to pass the payroll tax extension, unemployment insurance extension and the "doc fix" to Medicare, there's little major mischief they can initiate until after the election.  The foreseeable dangers come from outside the country, and they are big.  One is the European debt crisis which is still unfolding and could mean last minute setbacks to the American economy.  The second is Iran, and whether war breaks out there from Israeli air strikes or whatever, and oil shipping is disrupted. 

Either of those add big uncertainties, and shift the focus to some degree.  If Richney is the nominee, he has zero credibility on foreign policy, and he is so obviously untrustworthy that it's hard to see how anything offshore helps him.  Having been in the Senate, Sanctimonious can actually talk about foreign policy, and sound semi-sane, more credible than on domestic issues.  Still, it's hard to see America putting its fate in the hands of the guy in the sweater vest, vs. the guy who got bin Laden.  But stranger things have happened...under the Big Top!       

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