Are the Republicans Toast?

In the latest Newsweek poll, Bush's approval is down to 33%, indicating his absolutely dependable core is starting to dissolve. The poll also shows for the first time that Democrats are more trusted than Republicans on morals and winning the war on terror.

In the Time Magazine poll, published a day earlier, Bush's approval is down to 36%. 80% of respondents knew about the Foley scandal, and only 16% thought the Republicans handled it well. Still, only a quarter of them said it was changing their vote, and that's likely to be the mantra this weekend from the Republican pundits--that as bad as this is, it doesn't seem to be changing votes. There is evidence both ways right now, and noone will really know until it's over, because turn out is the key--who votes and who stays home. If voters vote in proportion to the opinions expressed in the polls, the Democrats win.

Can Republicans still win enough seats a month from now to retain control of Congress? Some commentators (like Newsweek's Howard Fineman) are saying that if Democrats can't win this election they may as well disband. There's some sense in that, though it is more complicated.

Republicans nationally still have a lot of money to spend, which they've saved up for the final weeks. Expect a lot of ads and a lot of sliming. However, now that they are no longer the party of the moral high ground, and as many observers are saying (and as the Captain predicted), the religious right base--the people, not their church leaders--are thoroughly disillusioned with the Republicans because of the Foley scandal and how Hastert and others handled it--their credibility in throwing slime may not be good enough for it to stick. It could even look to them as further evidence of moral opportunism.

Republicans have a well organized and technically sophisticated ground game, but these same fundamentalists are both the troops and the target, which may make this less of an advantage.

In recent elections, the Republicans had Karl Rove to save them, and although his hand is definitely at the tiller in the national Republican campaign (it's said that it was his decision that Hastert not resign), he's got his own problems. In what normally would have been a big news story but got lost in the continuing Foley fallout, a key aide to Rove resigned Friday--she was implicated in hundreds of contacts with criminal lobbyist Jack Abramoff, and accepted gifts from him. She had been recommended to Rove by Abramoff.

What else can save them? As they well understand, it's a matter of a few votes here and there. Some big elections, especially for the Senate, are very volatile and may well depend on issues and events specific to those races. This is also true of many House races, but more so in Senate races because the candidates are likely to be better known. But there's a lot of uncertainty about an election where the feeling is so high. Apart from anger and disillusionment with arrogant Republicans, the scandal may also reinforce disgust with all politicians, and fuel the Throw All the Bums Out emotions. Proportionately that still favors Dems, but it adds more volatility to individual races.

Many analysts stress the Democrats' ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. But people like Nancy Pelosi are smarter than they are given credit for, and though they may make strategic mistakes, erring on the side of caution rather than closing the deal, they are thinking about what they will do if they take control, and some of the plans seem quite responsive. In any case, Iraq is still at the top of voter concerns, and it seems clear that throughout the electorate, Bush has lost the confidence of voters on his conduct of the war.

The remaining question is manipulating votes and the voting process, through voter suppression, intimidation, corruption and fraud. This can still play a role in close elections, and all it may take is a few elections to deny the Democrats control of the Senate, and maybe even the House (though that seems safer.) There is turmoil about voting machines and how voting is organized in several states, even a month before the polls open. There will be more about that subject here soon.