Numbers V. The Vibe

 The day has come.  My impression of it as the voting begins is the stark difference between the so-called numbers and the vibe.

The numbers people, the data people, parse what they continue to call an extremely close race.  Ace NYT numbers guy Nate Cohn worries aloud that the polls may underestimate Chaos again, and ace NYT numbers guy Nate Silver sees the Chaos shadow everywhere.  No momentum for Kamala, a dour razor thin election.

But out there on the campaign trail for the past week or more the contrast has been almost mythic.  The Harris campaign is exuberant, expansive, joyful.  She sounds like a winning candidate talking to the electorate that will soon be her constituency.  Chaos sounded broken, dazed and depressed.  She sounds like a winner.  He sounded like a loser.

 The Harris campaign, fusing Democrats, Republicans and the unaffiliated, is unified.  The federal and state Republican organizations are detached, the Chaos campaign itself is riven with public infighting.  

The momentum has been visible, palpable. Kamala Harris drew ever-increasing crowds.  Huge crowds everywhere--20,000 was not unusual.  75,000 in Washington.  The sprawling crowd for her last event in Philadelphia may have been upwards of 30,000.  The last Chaos rallies showed empty seats, people leaving.  

The numbers people say it's a tossup.  The vibe says that America is finally done with him.

To be sure, there's plenty of good news in the numbers for Harris.  The final Marist poll puts her national numbers at 51% to Chaos 47%, which has been the number that has sounded right to me this week. (Reading between the lines, I think the Harris campaign is figuring on a 50/48% split.)  The NYT & some other big polls are tied nationally, and the swing states very close.  But even in the NYT poll, Harris is ahead in more of those states.  The same in other polls, though it's not always the same states.  Then there's that surprising Iowa poll with Harris ahead there, which may suggest layers and movement that other polls aren't picking up. 

And there are the other numbers: the number of Harris staff and volunteers, the number of calls they're making and doors they're knocking on, vs. the conspicuous absence of Chaos workers.  A superior get out the vote effort is worth at least half a percentage point, they say.  Once again, these numbers suggest the vibe--the enthusiasm that is motivating, that could create the bandwagon effect of an obviously winning campaign.

And it seems that nobody but maybe Nate Siler and Nate Cohn believe Chaos will win.  Observers as different as Michael Moore and Bill Kristol not only foresee a Harris victory, but one that will be clear by midnight tonight, though a lot of votes will likely still be uncounted.

What to expect?  The first crucial results will probably be Georgia and North Carolina, either or both of which are expected to have definitive results by say 9 or 10 p. EST.  If Harris wins one, the most direct path to victory for Chaos has been severed, and it's time to put the champagne in the fridge.  If she wins them both, then something big is happening. 

Michigan and Wisconsin may also report enough votes by say 11 p. to show the shape of votes to come.  If she wins those as well as Georgia and North Carolina, it's time to to pop the cork.  If she has won one, then it may take awhile for her to officially get the two votes she needs.

If results are mixed, then the wait for Pennsylvania returns, which could be late Wednesday or Thursday.  Nevada and Arizona could take a week or even two to complete their count.  Any or all of them could be projected by the networks before the night is out. But if margins are truly razor thin, the suspense will continue past the weekend.  

But the vibe says no.  It says that women--including a healthy minority of Republican women, a plurality of unaffiliated women, have not forgotten the abortion bans.  It says that young voters are excited, Black and Latino voters are motivated, older voters are disgusted with and alarmed by Chaos, so they will turn out to vote for Harris.   It says that many former Chaos voters may be like Chaos campaign staffers who would be glad if he just goes away. They may stay home. At his last events, it was clear that if Chaos was trying to appeal to anyone, it was right wing conspiracy fringe.

The vibe says Texas and Florida may not be out of reach.  And yes, Iowa.  It says that the Dems may squeak out a Senate and House majority.  

Even some of the numbers people suggest that the polls aren't picking up late registrants, their models might not work anymore anyway,  and in an election with a coalition of Ds and Rs (and a Generation Z that prefers to register unaffiliated), how people will actually vote based on registration is even more unpredictable than usual.  The vibe says that even if the numbers are even, there are enough ways to "overperform" them to win.

The vibes were all on display on Monday night. They say President Harris.

If you haven't voted, vote.  Be grateful you experienced the Harris campaign.   Soon we learn our fate. Let's hope the vibes are right.  Because what's at stake is the future.  Possibly all of it.