I'm writing this a few hours after the news broke that Donald and Melania Trump have both tested positive for Covid 19 but the White House doctor stated they are both feeling well so far. They were tested because Hope Hicks, a close aide, tested positive after exhibiting symptoms. Since it is around 5am in the eastern US, further news is yet to come. So in this lacuna, I'm having these thoughts...
1. If both Trumps tested positive, it seems likely that one of them infected the other. Which means that one of them has likely been infectious for perhaps days. Donald Trump in particular may have infected a number of people, including Joe Biden. Shouting at somebody for an hour and a half even from six feet away theoretically could do it.
What about vp Pence? Will he be on the contact tracing list? Negative tests right now don't mean anyone is out of danger--they may be vulnerable for 10 days to 2 weeks. And what about members of Congress? Their contact has been limited, but they are politicians after all. This could be a long list.
2. Tired of waiting for the White House to come to an agreement, Nancy Pelosi and the House passed a $2.2 trillion covid crisis relief bill. Now the contrast of the White House and the first family receiving highest quality medical monitoring and care at taxpayer expense while millions suffer from lack of health care, from unemployment including new rounds of layoffs, decreased benefits from the federal government and financially devastated states, becomes pretty stark. Suddenly there might be an agreement.
3. This is the kind of moment that usually brings the country together. But the ill will created by this White House, and particularly its lying and stonewalling which casts vital information now into doubt, may create a very different dynamic. This happens on the same day as revelations that cast even Melania Trump is a very poor light.
4. As for the campaign, when Richard Nixon injured himself in 1960 and couldn't campaign for several days, John Kennedy voluntarily took himself off the campaign trail for that time. This is a much more complicated case. For one thing, Joe Biden may well go into quarantine if his doctors feel he might have been exposed to the virus from Trump or others at the debate. It seems very unlikely that the presidential debates, already in question, will go ahead. But will Biden do his scheduled tv town hall? What about the v.p. debates?
5. Longer term, there may be a sympathy vote for Trump in new polls, or if he remains without symptoms and apparently recovers, he may use this experience to bolster his contention that the virus is overrated. First media reaction was to suggest that this will devastate an already losing campaign. It might get more complicated.
All of this is preliminary to the drama that will play out for the next two weeks: the Symptoms Watch, the eyes on the helicopter that might be headed for Walter Reed. And if Trump gets sick--and as everyone is repeating, he's at high risk for bad outcomes because of age and overweight--then people will start getting nervous about this White House consisting of extremist hacks and amateurs with no regard for the country and its institutions but only for partisan politics and ideology, being in charge of the presidency and any necessary changes.
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