The Winner (with Update)

...and still champion

Update 3/6:Elizabeth Warren dropped out of the presidential race on Thursday.  I read several analyzes of her candidacy (including a moving account of what her candidacy meant to women) and future prospects, including speculation on an endorsement (which she has not yet offered), with speculations based on her progressive politics and her gender.  But Senator Warren's first consideration is closer to home: she has to decide whether she wants to be a U.S. Senator.

She is in the Senate now, of course, and now that she's no long running for President she has to decide the level of her commitment to staying there. If she is committed to representing Massachusetts in the Senate, then it seems that she might have some work to do at home.  She came in third in her home state primary.  That suggests she needs to pay her state more attention.  Also, the Democrats of her state just endorsed Joe Biden with their votes.  If she wants to stay in the Senate, she can't disrespect that by endorsing Bernie, at least not yet.  

This is a decision one of her Massachusetts predecessors faced when he failed in his presidential primary bid for the Democratic nomination in 1980.  Senator Ted Kennedy decided on the Senate, and became one of its most distinguished members of his time, and of all time.  I'm not suggesting that this is the commitment Senator Warren ought to make, just that this a consideration she faces.

That's true in different ways for the other ex-candidates from the Senate.  It's especially pertinent for Senator Harris of California.  Several times there have been rumors that she was about to endorse Joe Biden, but she didn't before the CA primary.  Now she has to consider how her state voted, and how long she wants to be in the Senate, and what relationship there is between the two, as well as whether she wants to be a vice-presidential candidate.  Senator Amy Klobachar endorsed Biden just before Super Tuesday, but she too should be thinking about whether she wants to stay in the Senate or accept nomination as the v.p. candidate. Because one of these two is the most likely Biden choice.  Senator Sanders on the other hand must strongly consider Senator Warren.

If Biden is on his way to becoming the nominee, then he also must consider where these Democrats would be most valuable, as the party strives to take the Senate majority so a Democratic President can actually get something passed.

Super Tuesday turned out to be super all right--and a most extraordinary day in politics.  Before the day started, most pundits and analysts allowed that Joe Biden might win a few southern states, but that the day would belong to Bernie Sanders. Instead, Biden won all the southern states (including the big prize of Virginia by 30 points, and North Carolina, both states the Dems hope to get in November), plus two southwestern state (Oklahoma and the big prize of Texas, which pundits gave him no chance to win), plus a Midwestern state (Minnesota) and a couple of northeastern states ( Elizabeth Warren's Massachusetts and the state of Maine, next door to the only northeastern state Bernie won, his home state of Vermont.) Biden ended the day with a delegate lead, and suddenly he is the frontrunner, again, but this time in reality.

Bernie is ahead in the California primary, but nearly half the ballots probably haven't been counted, depending on mail-ins (nobody really knows how many there are.)  At our polling place, Margaret heard that locally there were many more ballots given out than had been returned. But California allows ballots to be mailed as late as election day itself, so it will be a few days before all those will be received, let alone counted.  This could be why the NY Times hasn't called the state for Bernie, though the AP did immediately.  Since people who decided late tended to vote for Biden, those ballots could prove interesting.  Biden won't likely overcome Bernie's lead, but he could increase his share of delegates. In any case, Biden will get a bunch of delegates from California, which will keep him ahead.

The other news out of California is that so far Mike Bloomberg has failed to meet the 15% threshold to get any delegates.  Bloomberg's candidacy was a bust, and now it's over, and he's endorsed Biden.

So what happened?  Biden had spent the least amount of money of any of the candidates and he won in states where he had not campaigned.  Exit polls suggest that a lot of people decided late, after Biden's South Carolina victory on Saturday, and even though the endorsements of Biden by Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Mayor Pete and Beto didn't come until Monday, apparently--maybe shockingly--voters noticed.    

It's been clear this past week that the Democratic party establishment and the mainstream media pundits were alarmed by Bernie's electoral prospects (and his negative effect on congressional races) as well as his fitness for the presidency, and perhaps this reflected voters sentiments.

Meanwhile, the stock market has been tanking as the coronavirus spreads and the federal government flounders.  Competence and calm, caring and reassurance look pretty good again.  Democratic voters remember when they had it last, and Joe Biden was in that White House.  The winner of Super Tuesday was Barack Obama.

This is particularly true with black voters, who went overwhelmingly for Biden.  Margaret suggests that black voters particularly resent Trump's reversing Obama policies while he obsessively badmouths Obama without even an absurd pretext. This is an astute observation, for it's been true in the past that while the media may move on to another story, black voters remember.  

They are also very conscious of the racism embedded in the current administration, and realize it will only get worse.  Obama is more than a symbol of that.

A couple of other conclusions are inescapable.  For instance, it turns out that in politics, money isn't absolutely everything after all.  Bloomberg spent almost half a billion dollars, a sum as inconceivable as the paltry number of votes that resulted. On the other hand, his millions will be needed--and will be available--to counter the millions behind the oncoming ugly.

Also, until Super Tuesday, the Democrats seemed to face a Sophie's Choice: if they chose Sanders, a lot of voters would turn away from an avowed democratic socialist.  But if they chose anybody else (except maybe Senator Warren), a lot of Berniecrats wouldn't vote at all.  Either way, they'd risk losing.

But Tuesday's results suggest that Sophie's Choice might not be so fatal if Biden is the nominee, for two reasons.  First, because a lot of Bernie's voters didn't even show up to vote for him, so it's unlikely they'd vote anyway--but more importantly, Bernie's share of the Democratic electorate seems not to have grown since 2016 but diminished.  Second, exit polls showed that the voters' highest priority was picking somebody who could beat Trump, regardless of whether they agreed with that candidate or not.

A side note: There are obvious exceptions, but candidates don't often campaign in the home state of a rival candidate in the same party.  Biden didn't campaign in Senator Klobuchar's Minnesota or Senator Warren's Massachusetts, but Bernie did.  Biden won them both, perhaps the most devastating of Bernie's losses outside of Texas.

All in all, things look very different this week than they did last. Obama may have won but unfortunately he's not on the ballot. Biden is more of an adventure as a candidate and probably as a potential President.  But his particular contrast with Trump suddenly has potency in these sobering times.  His prospects look good at the moment, and Bernie may have hit the wall.  We'll see.  Plenty of spills and chills ahead, unfortunately.  But at least there's hope.