Now It Begins...

Does what happened in New Hampshire stay in New Hampshire?  That's the big question, and the big mystery, in the Democratic presidential nomination process.

With Iowa a travesty, New Hampshire was the first real contest, but it is in many ways an artificial one.  The next two contests--the Nevada caucuses and the South Carolina primary will tell us more, because those states are not so dominated by white voters.  Any Democrat will need substantial Latino votes and overwhelming African American votes in order to prevail in the general election.

In New Hampshire the first three candidates were very close: Bernie Sanders, Pete B. and Amy Klobuchar.  The two previous frontrunners, Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, were way behind.

Sanders won, which positions him pretty well.  But he didn't do as well in New Hampshire or (as far as we know) in Iowa as he did in 2016, and certainly has not emerged with overwhelming support.  Consider that even with the unexpected collapse of Elizabeth Warren--next to Bernie, probably the best known of the candidates in New Hampshire, since much of the state is served by Massachusetts media--Sanders did not noticeably profit.  Either their reputation as the leftist twins is more in the mind of the media and party pros than the voters, or Bernie hasn't gained support from last time.

Even though he came in a close second (and perhaps a close first in Iowa), I am still resisting learning how to spell Pete B.'s name because I find it hard to believe he will last.  Of all the candidates he appears to be the least tested outside a mostly white electorate.

Then there's the surprise surge of Amy.  It could well be that New Hampshire's particulars won't be replicated elsewhere: she had a lot of time and staff in the state, and the major newspaper endorsements in a state that still pays attention to them.  And her performance in the debate just days before gave her local as well as national buzz.

But Amy does have a path to the nomination.  Mostly this is because she has faced a variety of voters before, though not as non-white as upcoming states.  She has to do well in Nevada and South Carolina to remain viable.  If moderate progressives fixate on her in those states, and if Biden loses his advantage with black voters in South Carolina, it could lead to Biden and Warren dropping out.  If that happened, it would not surprise me if both endorsed Klobuchar.

If she can continue to build momentum, Amy has the makings of a consensus candidate with party professionals.  She definitely is the one to watch in these upcoming contests.  She will need a lot of momentum to go up against candidates in Super Tuesday contests less than a month away (on March 3) with huge advantages in money and staff.  Otherwise this process probably continues into chaos, with a Bernie v. Bloomberg clash even at the convention. Which is really living dangerously.

I'm not entirely unhappy with this field.  There's no Obama, but there seldom is.  But Bernie isn't wrong about most things--he's certainly right about the greed of the health insurers and pharma, and that health care should not be for profit.  It's his followers I worry most about.  They tend to be so doctrinaire that they may not vote for anybody but Bernie.  I'm not crazy about Bloomberg, but when he says Trump can't bully him, it's reassuring.  He has the money to compete against the Trump's highly funded disinformation apparatus, and he's committed to applying it even if he isn't the nominee.

The New Hampshire primary was open to anyone who wanted to temporarily be a Democrat to vote in it, and the turn out was excellent.  What nobody knows yet is how strong the feeling in the country is that America can't afford any more of Homegrown Hitler, in any way.  It may not always seem to be, but it might be considerable.