The Return of Nuclear Fear

one of the infographics prepared by the Obama administration

My chief nuclear fear of the past decade was that people were no longer afraid of nuclear weapons.  None had visibly been exploded for a long time, and any sense of what they are was furnished by video games and Hollywood movies, both of which made nuclear bombs just seem like ordinary if kind of big explosives.

But nuclear fear (a term given its name and history in brilliant books by Spencer C. Weart) had characterized the post-World War II decades, until the collapse of the Soviet Union gave the false sense that the threat was over.  Now nuclear bombs don't usually rate very highly in the hierarchy of anxieties.

That may change, thanks especially to events of this past week.  It was less than a decade ago that the western world was fixated on the threat of Iran getting itself the Bomb.  There was a fair amount of talk in the Bush years of preemptive and inevitably nuclear bombing of suspected sites in Iran.  This was the last time that experts trotted out to delineate the horror of this notion.

Negotiators for the Iran nuclear deal: top officals from China,
Russia, UK, France, Germany, Iran and the US Secretary of State

When President Obama brought together other western governments plus China and Russia to negotiate a treaty with Iran, it was considered an unlikely proposition.  But that treaty was made and signed, and Iran agreed to a series of steps that would ensure that it would not be capable of making a nuclear weapon.  The treaty would be in force until roughly 2030, and of course could be renewed. It was potentially the greatest act for the possibility of peace in the world in a generation.

Many feared that Iran would not abide by the treaty but every indication is that Iran kept to all of its specifications.  Then in yet another act of insane infamy, Trump withdrew American participation.  But the other nations pledged to maintain the agreement, and Iran stayed in compliance.  Obviously everyone hoped the next US leader would return to it.

another Obama admin. infographic

Even before Iran rocket bombed several US bases in retaliation for the assassination by drone of one of their leaders, they announced they were withdrawing from the treaty and would no longer abide by its provisions.  Iran is getting back on the road to a nuclear weapon.

This seems to be the consequence of Trump's solo act that few so far are taking seriously.  No one quite knows what Iran is capable of economically, but if they can accomplish it, it seems they will be back to trying to become a nuclear power, and the world will be back trying to figure out which of its very bad alternatives to take in response.

The US and Iran may or may not continue escalating violent conflict now, but this change in nuclear weapons policy is likely to be permanent.  The reason is simple. Smaller countries like Iran believe that larger countries will be less likely to bully them if they have nuclear weapons, and they are right.  North Korea is the prime recent example.

  Iran has just been bullied by the US, big time.  It has every reason to try to become a nuclear power, especially as it is now clear that the US cannot be trusted to keep its own treaties.

This is an unmitigated disaster for the region and for the world, as if we needed more problems as climate catastrophe spreads and deepens.  Nuclear fear may well return.

That's the Iranian side of the equation.  Perhaps more imminently, there is the fear that Trump will order US forces to use nuclear weapons.  He ordered the assassination without consultation with Congress (or any of its members) or allies, or anybody outside his inner circle of evil.  It had been speculated that the military might refuse his crazy orders.  They didn't.  Would they unleash the nukes at his command?

That's the nuclear fear of the moment.  It seems the only person who can restrain Trump is Putin--and he might well try to restrain him, especially if it involves Iran--if he got the chance.

 After the past week, there are fewer reasons to believe using nuclear weapons is unthinkable any longer in this White House, partly because fewer people--including one person in particular--seem to understand what they are.