Senator Moore (with updates)

What little chance that Democrat Doug Jones had of winning the Alabama Senate seat up for special election next Tuesday probably disappeared this Tuesday.  And it wasn't because the Anti-president's endorsement resulted in the RNC turning the money taps back on for Ray Moore, though that's a factor.

On Tuesday Rep. John Conyers retired or resigned from Congress under pressure from Democratic Party leadership because of sexual harassment and related accusations.  Conyers, age 88, is a senior black member of Congress and one of its last ties to the Civil Rights movement of the 1960s.  He is a hero to many black Americans.

Black members of Congress are already voicing resentment that white members facing similar accusations have not resigned, and that Conyers is the first to do so. House D leader Nancy Pelosi publicly called for his resignation over the weekend.

But black congressional members aren't likely to be the only ones resenting this.  Some black voters will as well.  Doug Jones' only chance in Alabama was a combination of Rs disgusted with Roy Moore's behavior staying home or writing in another candidate, plus a heavy black turnout.  Jones was already having trouble motivating black voters.  This won't help him do so.   They certainly won't vote for Moore, but they can stay home.

Update: Another factor is the very active black voter suppression government and culture in Alabama.  

Could women make the difference for Jones?  It would likely mean many more Dem women are especially motivated to vote by the charges against Roy Moore, along with many Republican women motivated to either vote for Jones or stay home, for the same reason.  But this is a combination that has so far eluded pollsters.  Republican women don't seem to have abandoned Moore.

The only slim hope for Jones is that voters have really had it with the tax bill, the attacks on healthcare and the toxic chaos of the current administration, so bigly as to send a message out of Louisiana.  This too is unlikely.

Though we are talking about dead red Alabama here, these are problems that may recur in the 2018 midterms.  Whatever else there is to be said about the current frenzy over this wide range of accusations of sexually related misconduct, they are very unlikely to improve electoral outcomes for Democrats.  Higher motivation for some women (mostly white, upper middle class) may not be enough.

It's becoming clear that no Republican is going to resign from anything over such accusations, unless or until they become indictments or convictions.  Republican voters will not penalize them for this, especially in this atmosphere.  The election of Roy Moore next week will make this a self-fulfilling prophesy.

 One Democrat has resigned now because of this and other Democrats may.  In terms of numbers, Democrats are more likely than Republicans to lose seats over this issue.

Further updates: Rep. John Lewis, an even more revered black leader and icon of the Civil Rights movement, is personally campaigning in Alabama for Doug Jones.  That may mitigate some of the damage.  

By Thursday, a Republican actually did resign from the House, along with a Democratic Senator, both white, which may also slow further damage to the black vote in Alabama.  More generally I note the essays by Dahila Lithwick and Laura Kipnis on the various political ramifications, and this earnest, thoughtful and yet sadly comic attempt to explain differences over time on culturally accepted sexual behavior.