Tuesday, July 12, 2016


Veep speculation?  Let's join the fun.  If Trump really wants to please party GOPers, he'll pick Pence.  But....he's Trump.  Does he want to please party leader Paul Ryan, who said publicly today that Trump should choose a conservative (and of the three commonly named as most likely, that's Pence) or does Trump want to stick a finger in his eye?  Well, he does, but will he?  If he goes with this instinct  he'll pick one of the loyalist fellow big mouths, Christie or Gingrich.  Because Trump-Pence just sounds boring.

If he picks Pence he'll regret it (rightly or not) but it will signal how much he feels he needs from the GOPer establishment.  What's key here probably is any preference by the chair of the RNC.  Trump absolutely needs the RNC, or this campaign will cost him big money, and there's no bankruptcy law governing presidential campaigns.

Hillary they say will wait until Trump announces to make her final choice.  With the speculation centering on either Elizabeth Warren (the most daring, exciting choice) or Tim Kaine (safe, boring choice), she might turn to Tom Perez, current Labor Secretary, who she likes, is Latino, popular with labor, will go after Trump.  Warren could complain about Kaine, but not about Perez. Perez causes no political problems in depleting Dems in the Senate, and is another tie binding Clinton to Obama.  Clinton-Perez, that's an historic ticket.  But it may depend on Clinton's evaluation of whether he's got the goods to be President if he has to be.

A Latino on the ticket, by the way, will likely mean the GOP will have to look hard at defending places like Arizona and Texas as well as Colorado and Nevada.

Like Trump's choice, Clinton's will say something about what kind of candidate she wants to be.  Warren says, full out attack.  Kaine says "safe," Clinton is the safe choice over crazy Trump.  Perez says, willing to lose some suburban white votes to get Latinos for a generation--because right now, she is not as far ahead of Trump with Latinos as she might be, according to certain polls.

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