Tomorrow there are primaries in five state. Weekend polls showed Trump far ahead in Florida, and Rubio in third place behind Cruz, who isn't even campaigning there anymore. So it seems pretty likely that Rubio is toast, and he will suspend his campaign this week.
Those polls show Kasich and Trump are virtually tied in Ohio. For the final push Mitt Romney is campaigning for Kasich, and John Banal has endorsed him. My instincts tell me both of those will backfire, and the momentum will return to Trump--and with early voters often going to him, he's still most likely to win this winner take all.
If Kasich wins Ohio, there's at least a moment of hope for anti-Trump GOPers, however illusory it might turn out to be. If by dint of a weekend backlash he also wins another state, like Illinois (which according to polls is extremely unlikely), then Kasich actually becomes a factor.
If Kasich loses Ohio, where as Governor he pretty much commands the state Republican infrastructure and the state's voting machinery as he obviously will nowhere else--then he's done.
Meanwhile Cruz needs to win somewhere--Illinois seems his best shot, but Missouri would be more impressive. Trump's lead in both states has fallen in recent polls. If Trump loses Missouri, and late deciders went elsewhere, then there's some evidence that this weekend's troubles have hurt him because Missouri has no early voting. In any case, Cruz may well be the last man standing against Trump when Wednesday rolls around.
With the Democrats, Bernie Sanders has a shot at Illinois, which is possible if a late surge breaks big enough for him (though the incredible polling swing in one week--from Hillary up 46 points to Bernie leading--suggests we don't really know anything) and maybe Missouri, but there I doubt it. Except for a kerfluffle over Nancy Reagan, Hillary has engendered no new controversy, so her support should hold, and unless there's a big demographic surge of young voters, I feel Missouri voters will be put off by the participation of Sanders partisans in clashes at a couple of Trump events. Ohio has gotten closer, but a Bernie win there would be regarded as a serious upset.
In any case, polls show Hillary is way ahead in North Carolina and Florida, more narrowly ahead elsewhere. She's almost certain to come out of Tuesday with more delegates, and she could sweep.
But you know, this is Monday, and who knows what the day will bring.
Mon. p.m.: A detailed piece in the New York Times about the last days of campaigning suggest how demographically driven the Dem race has become. The Clinton campaign is either trying to lower expectations by signaling that Bernie has the upper hand in three midwestern states, or...that campaign is in more trouble than it should be. Ed Kilgore at New York pretty much agrees with the distinct possibility of Bernie winning all three, though for different reasons in each state.
Other stories emphasize delegates--that unless Bernie not only wins these states but wins them big, the victories won't cut into Hillary's lead because she's get a large share of the proportional delegates.
In this story I also flag the ad campaign targeting Trump on the basis of his manifold insults to women. How well this works could be key to Hillary's campaign in the general, if such were to happen.
The story also repeats a quote going around that may be a little out of context but seems accurate that Hillary said of clean energy plans "we're going to put a lot of coal miner and coal companies out of business," which is not only an utterly needless, gratuitous statement (coal companies are clearly doomed, so why crow about it?) it's as tone-deaf and heartless as it seems possible for a politician to make who is running for President.
4 days ago
No comments:
Post a Comment