Sometimes the "smoking gun" really is a smoking gun. And now there's the possibly fateful case of a climate crisis tipping point that is actually a point at which something tips over.
That something unfortunately contains enough melting ice to raise sea levels by ten to thirteen feet worldwide, all by itself. According to a study by climate scientists, it could well happen if global heating continues. The place is East Antarctica.
"East Antarctica's Wilkes Basin is like a bottle on a slant," said lead-author Matthias Mengel in a statement. "Once uncorked, it empties out."
This basin is much larger than the UK. Right now this bottle is sealed by a rim of ice. But melting already predicted could pop the stopper.
Sea level rise from Antarctica is projected to increase by 16 centimeters this century. "If half of that ice loss occurred in the ice-cork region, then the discharge would begin. We have probably overestimated the stability of East Antarctica so far," said co-author Anders Levermann.
Once the top is popped, the point is tipped, and the deluge begins. And once started it will continue for estimates of 5,000 to 10,000 years.
Though really a tipping point, it isn't exactly a smoking gun, at least not right now, because it may well take a long time--even hundreds of years--to become evident. But it does suggest how these things can work. Once begun, the effects continue, and may be impossible to stop once they are started. Once the genie is out of the bottle.
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