Fires Today and Tomorrow

Let's just note what is happening.  Today there are three big news stories involving Australia running concurrently:

Australian Firefighters Fight Weather in Worst Bush Fire in 45 Years

Climate Change is Absolutely Linked to [Australian] Fires Says UN Chief

Australian Prime Minister Denies 25 Years of Climate Change Science

That last headline is a little deceptive--the science referred to in the column is linking this wildfire to climate change, but this Prime Minister is a denier, and even in a huge country where the climate is very noticeably changing and bringing havoc of which this fire is only the most recent and violent example, there is a political attempt to set up a commission to investigate climate scientists for fraud.

But you get the idea.  The sensible idea--and the premise of various fictional 'cautionary tales'--is that however strong the opposition and denial is, it falls to pieces in the face of extreme evidence.  Then everybody gets together to address the problem.

It may happen.  But it is not happening now.  Apart from ones I've suggested before, or the ever-proximate political reasons--politicians stirring up scared masses on behalf of the fossil fuel industries that fund them--there are other reasons being offered.

One is proposed by a big story in Time Magazine based on a study that reportedly says that people are just too selfish to sacrifice anything now for the good of the future, even for their own grandchildren.

The study may or may not be valid, and/or actually applicable to the climate crisis.  Frankly I give it a 1 in 3 chance that it is both robust and all that relevant.  But it does suggest that it's more than lack of imagination that's involved--the ability to foresee a problem and to act on it according to how serious it might be, how probable and what the cost of dealing with it is versus the eventual cost of not dealing with it.

The interpretation here is that it's also the imagination of compassion.  The "you'd do the same for me" projected into the future.  It's hard for me to believe that people in the present wouldn't sacrifice for their grandchildren, which seems to go against even some Darwinian view of human nature.  But we've become accustomed to believing the worst about human beings.

But the article moves quickly to suggesting that a winning strategy on the addressing the climate crisis is emphasizing short-term gains.  And there are plenty, especially in clean energy technologies, in new industries and new jobs in old industries (construction for instance.)

It is certainly true that you people are more keenly interested in clean energy when (a) dirty energy prices are going way up, like gasoline for instance, (b) there are jobs and economic benefits visible to all, as in some places where wind farms have recharged a dormant economy.  Still, President Obama tried this for most of his first term.  He promoted clean energy for all these short-term reasons, seldom mentioning climate change.  There were successes.  But perhaps clouded by the political opposition to absolutely everything he is for, it didn't change a lot.

The longer lasting lesson here however is that even though these efforts are motivated by wanting to save the future, to keep as much of this biosphere intact for grandchildren and beyond--everything that is to be done and planned and fought for is to be done in the present.  Not even short-term gain.  Now.  What it does for you and your life right now.

Those who are fighting politically (even in ways that seem pretty dubious to me) to get efforts to stop the causes of the climate crisis, are doing so as a big part of their lives now.  Those who are working especially in cities and counties and states to start dealing with the inevitable effects, are doing so in the present.

When the climate crisis becomes severe--and it seems it will before another half century has passed--then people will have to deal with it as an inevitable part of their present, and how they deal with it will define them, as well as determining the farther future.  Will they react with panic and violence?  Or will they summon courage, resourcefulness, compassion, nobility, even heroism?

Hope for the future is enacted in the present.  Some people are already there.  Others consumed and being dragged down by denial, eaten away by extreme selfishness, cowardice and mania are not in the end leading happy lives.