Into the Weekend Election Overview

As the weekend begins, the polls are close enough--and the circumstances uncertain enough--that the outcome of the presidential election next week cannot be confidently predicted (though I confess I feel pretty confident about it.)  The latest numbers however are good for President Obama, and some are very good.  Of the swing state polls released Friday he is behind in none and leading in almost all.  Particularly interesting are the states where he is at 50% or above, including the NBC poll in Ohio which shows him at 51% (to Romney's 45%.) 

The Ohio polls are pretty consistent.  Florida polls much less so.  Some new ones show Obama with a narrow lead, others favor Romney by more.  By poll average, Colorado is very close, but some information coming out of the state suggests that it isn't really that close--Obama is well ahead.  The numbers people do agree that Obama is the favorite at the moment, though narrowly. (Nate Silver has his chances back up above 80%.)  And that whatever tiny momentum that has shown up in the polls favors him.

But whatever the numbers say or whatever they actually are at this point, it is pretty clear that in the past week, Mitt Romney's rationales for his candidacy have collapsed.

Romney's emphasis on jobs and the economy was coming up against all new economic indicators suggesting consumer confidence is up and the economy is growing.  Then on Friday the jobs report showed a greater than expected number of jobs added, boosting the average job gain to above 150,000, one of Nate Silver's thresholds for reelection.  If the issue is to continue on the path to recovery, then the advantage is to President Obama.

In Romney's most recent Etch-a-Sketch, he's been portraying himself as bipartisan, while President Obama is incapable of bipartisan cooperation, of working with the other side.  Then came hurricane Sandy, and President Obama working closely with GOPer Gov Chris Christie.  This imagery melds with another difference in this campaign: President Obama's insistence that government, and the federal government, can help ordinary people.  His leadership in the storm recovery says it in reality.  And it all is perfect illustration with the central phrase in his campaign from the beginning: We're all in this together.

So the President was seen being nonpartisan and effective, while the supposedly nonpart Romey was engaged in political sniping, and dodging reporters' questions about FEMA.

 Part of Romney's case on effectiveness is that President Obama is too ideological and far left.  The Colin Powell endorsement had already severely weakened that impression, and then came the endorsement of Independent NY Mayor Bloomberg.  (This by the way may have an influence I hadn't thought of, mentioned by a political pundit on msnbc: there are a lot of New Yorkers now living in Florida, and many are independents.  Bloomberg--and what Obama's FEMA is doing to help New York--can make a difference with them.)

This image is also belied by the rationally conservative Brit magazine The Economist, which endorsed President Obama (however grudgingly).  Though this is unlikely to influence a lot of American voters, it does point up a big problem for Romney, even if he were to win.  A lot of the people he would have to work with don't like him, and a lot of those whose opinions matter simply disdain him and the intense dishonesty of his campaign.

The latest evidence of this was Friday Washington Post editorial which began:"Through all the flip-flops, there has been one consistency in the campaign of Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney: a contempt for the electorate."  The rest of this long editorial details his record of expressing this contempt throughout this campaign.

So what does Romney have left?  A core of Rabid Rightists frothing at the mouth with barely repressed racism and aggressively delusional zealotry, along with the strict ideological voter.  Augmented by corporate and financial interests and those controlled by them.  The low-information, low ability to reason voter.  Apart from those who will vote against Obama (and only tangentially or accidentally, for Romney) are those who will simply not vote, or will vote for a candidate who is neither Romney nor Obama.  

Plus the further uncertainties of the vote itself: the effects of the storm suddenly added to the effects of voter suppression and intimidation.  Voter suppression is visibly underway in Florida early voting, where 3 to 5 hour lines in Democratic areas are reported. 

So in many respects, the election is already in the hands of voters--especially the determined ones.  But there's the possibility to watch for this weekend: does the Romney rationale visibly wilt, does it become increasingly obvious that America understands it needs to save itself from him? 

There's also President Obama in recent speeches, turning on the rhetorical skills that he had suppressed and that some suggested were gone.  For example, he brought together his themes of fairness and opportunity, of we're all in this together, with his signature theme of hope, partly by quoting FDR: “'In the strength of great hope we must shoulder our common load.' That’s the strength we need today. That’s the hope I’m asking you to share.” Will he make even more Americans comfortable this weekend with returning him for a well-deserved second term?