Blue Monday

The polls taken last week just after the debate are starting to show up now, and they are very bad.  The Pew poll showing Romney with a 4 point national lead is particularly horrifying.  But apparently most of that was also done on those two days.  The unanimous pundit judgment on the debate is reflected in these polls.

However several online sources I checked today say that the polling for President Obama rebounded over the weekend.  That won't be expressed in new polls for a few days.  The danger here is that because the polls have this time lag, a certain new narrative starts to set in.  And there are certain alarmists on cable and on the Internet who are susceptible. 

The lasting effect is apt to be higher enthusiasm among Romney supporters than there was before the debate.  The Romney campaign is also apparently starting to unleash its big money in ads.  As I speculated, they seem to have been marshaling forces for an October push.  The question is whether it's enough to erase everything that's come before.

A good Biden performance in the v.p. debate this week will help, but it will need to be President Obama in the two remaining presidential debates who will have to reassure voters that their pre-debate estimations were the correct ones.

In good news,  Democratic Senate candidates are doing well in Massachusetts, Virginia, Connecticut and Wisconsin, all tight races.  But I would like to see President Obama hold one big rally in Boston in late October to seal the deal for Elizabeth Warren.