Wednesday, September 19, 2012

And Wednesday's Polls Are...

even worse, for Romney, and increasingly for other GOPer candidates.

The Pew poll of likely voters shows President Obama with an eight point national lead, 51%-43%.  Like other recent polls, President Obama has leads in most categories, and his voters are more enthusiastic and positive--they are voting for him, whereas more of Romney's voters are voting against Obama (this also in today's Economist poll.)

Rachel flagged this number from the Pew poll: on the question of who "connects with ordinary people," President Obama leads--by 43 points.
One of the Pew analysts pointed to a statistic that 70% of black voters said they were very interested in the election--the same percentage as in 2008, when African Americans voted at historic highs.

The latest swing state polls show President Obama with a slight lead in Colorado, and a larger lead in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

A just released Fox poll shows President Obama with a 7 point lead in Ohio, and 5 points in Florida.  A CNN poll says that Obama's lead in Michigan is 8 points.

Now the greater interest and enthusiasm of Democrats and perhaps a further tarnished GOPer brand as well as Romney's reverse coattails may be contributing to other races.  In particular, two crucial Senate races that have been virtually tied for months are showing movement towards the Democrat.  Two polls earlier in the week show Elizabeth Warren opening about a five point lead on incumbent GOPer Senator Scott Brown in Massachusetts.  Today two polls show Democrat Tim Kaine opening a 7 to 8 point lead over GOPer George Allen in Virginia. 

Even in Wisconsin, where Dem Tammy Baldwin has been running behind in her Senate race, one poll shows her with a substantial lead.  Though this poll may be an outlyer, it has a good reputation so it bears watching.   This same poll has President Obama leading by 14 points in Wisconsin.

In a just released poll by Reuters, almost 60% said Romney's comments recorded on the now infamous video unfairly dismissed almost half the population as feeling they are victims. 43% said it makes them feel less favorably towards Romney. President Obama has a five point lead in the Reuters tracking poll.  A Gallup poll has similar results, showing especially that most independents didn't like Romney's comments.

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