In Circus News, Little Ricky Sanctimonious is taking a long time coming out of the locker room. The NY Times reports a confab of conservatives with his campaign, but no outcome (like Ricky or Casino Newt dropping out), but there was an earlier report of several long conversations between the two.
Little Ricky is counting on PA and Texas in May, but Richney has gone ahead of him for the first time in one PA poll, and the politically astute Ed Rendell predicts he'll drop out before the PA primary if he seems likely to lose, because if he wants any future political viability he can't afford to lose his home state, again.
Meanwhile, Joe Klein has a piece on Richie Richney and the "Wounds of Victory." There are two schools on Richney. The first says he can still move to the center and remake his image enough to contend in the general, the second says he's stuck with what he's become. Klein is of the second school: "He seems a figure from the Great Depression, a combination of Daddy Warbucks and Old Man Potter. He celebrates creative destruction at a time when the destruction has been a bit too creative."
Morning Joe is on the record saying that off the record, he hasn't talked to a GOPer pol who believes Richney will win. The gender gap keeps getting wider, and it may be out of control thanks to GOPers in the states. Certainly any poll that has President Obama at 50% or above is daunting in itself. Here's an intriguing analysis, though I don't know how credible it is: even if President Obama's approval rating remains under but near 50%, he's very likely to be reelected. If it remains where it is now, at 47%, it's an 85% chance. At 50% it's 99%.
Personally I'm of the it's still a long time until the election school. But the enthusiasm of Dems and especially 2008 Obama supporters is firming and growing, while the GOP seems in an angry violent death spiral. Apart from unforeseen events and strange reactions, that violence is the most dangerous.
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