Not much has changed since Friday afternoon. Irene has weakened (this photo was taken from space before the eye deteriorated) and it is expected to make first landfall in North Carolina as a weak category 2 or strong category 1 hurricane. But Dr. Jeff Masters notes that this is deceptive because " Irene is such a huge storm--tropical storm force winds extend out up to 290 miles from the center--it has set a massive amount of the ocean's surface in motion, which will cause a much larger storm surge than the winds would suggest..."
On Friday afternoon the potential storm surge damage was still rated at what "a typical Category 4 hurricane would have." Though the storm will likely weaken further as it moves up the coast, storm surge will still be higher than the wind speed would usually indicate. There is an additional factor: tides will be especially high anyway on Saturday night and Sunday morning due to the new moon. Masters writes: " I continue to give a 20% chance that a 3 - 4 foot storm surge high enough to over-top the Manhattan flood walls and swamp the New York City subway system will occur on Sunday."
What noone knows is what the duration of the winds will mean. Because of the storm's size, some places will get high winds for 12 to 24 hours straight. Given the population increase, difference in the built environment, etc. since the last big storms on the Atlantic coast, and given the hugeness and eccentric internal behavior of this storm, nobody really knows what the effect on tides, rivers, buildings, infrastructure (especially electricity) etc. will be. And then there are the nuclear power plants.
Fortunately both officials and the general population are taking this storm seriously. President Obama will be monitoring events from the White House. Evacuations and precautions and emergency efforts (see previous post) should help everyone get through this.
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