Fate of the Polar Bear

There's a bunch of new macro-news about the Climate Crisis, and none of it is good. But for the moment, there's one study that professes one sliver of hope about one species: the polar bear. The headline from this study by a US Geological team published in Nature says that the polar bear may not necessarily be doomed to extinction--that if there are immediate major cuts in greenhouse gases emissions, the polar bear has a chance.

This BBC article goes on to note that it isn't much of a chance, but there are two interesting points the article makes. First is from the study, which is that the tipping point in the Arctic has not yet been reached (as at least one other study suggests). This is based on observational studies as opposed to projections from models.

The second point is also observational, and it points to the more likely fate of the polar bear--more likely because it has already begun, and it mirrors the fate of many other species. As the characteristics of their Arctic habitat are lost, polar bears come into contact with other bear species, and crossbreeding has already begun. The first polar bears with brown fur mixed with white have been observed--probably from a grizzly bear mating. The article notes that other Arctic species are involved in the same process. So the polar bear is going extinct as a distinct species, as the Arctic heats up and destroys the conditions that make the polar bear the polar bear.