What Happens Next?

The bail-out bill aka rescue plan was brought to a vote today because Congress is off for the Jewish holiday tomorrow, and the idea was to reassure the stock markets as soon as possible. Ha ha ha. So if there is still a stock market after tomorrow, Congress gets back to work on Wednesday, reconvening officially on Thursday. Then what happens?

Probably the same bill with some face-saving modifications will be introduced, unless widespread opposition is expressed tomorrow to the extent that it would be a predictable failure. If it isn't reintroduced, or if it fails again, then...

One idea making the rounds is that the Democrats write their own bill and pass it. That will probably take us into next week. Bush is speaking to the nation tomorrow morning when nobody will be listening, except Wall Street, which is who he is really speaking to. If he can announce some executive measures to loosen credit for awhile, the immediate crisis may simmer down. In which case, a Democratic bill makes very good sense, politically as well as economically.

Because the Dems have the votes to pass it, it will then also be a dare to Bush to veto it. This prospect may in fact scare enough Republicans into voting for a slightly modified version of the current bill, or another compromise proposal. Robert Reich suggested in a TV interview that this might be a much more modest and more targeted rescue, amounting to a billion and a half bucks. While all of these are possibilities, the extent of the political revulsion to the idea of a Wall Street bail-out as expressed and assessed on Tuesday--especially in light of the extreme drop in the stock market-- may be the deciding factor. What Bush says in the morning may even influence these decisions, if there's any actual action in it.

Some have argued all along that if the Bush administration really believes the situation is as dangerous as they say, they will come up with administrative measures that deal with the immediate situation, while Congress works in a more deliberative manner to address larger and longer-term consequences. If indeed the administration is going to do that, tomorrow morning would be the time to announce it. Simply pressuring Congress to come back and vote on the same bill is unlikely to work. Meanwhile, the din of competing ideas to address the crisis will only get louder.