Awaiting Iowa

The Iowa caucuses are later today, at last. And then the first real primary in New Hampshire on Tuesday. Right now the buzz is about Barack. Coming in first in the Des Moines Register poll by the biggest margin anyone's had is providing a lot of that buzz, which could easily be translating into momentum.

Then Kucinich asked his supporters to support Obama as their second choice, if (or rather when) he doesn't get the required 15% of caucus attendees and is disqualified. Wednesday there was reporting--or rumors--that the Biden people and the Richardson people may also be steering their supporters towards Obama. (Chris Dodd announced that he's not sending his supporters to anyone.) And the Biden story (by Beverly Davis) says nobody is suggesting John Edwards, which would be a blow to his chances--until now, the polls and the buzz had him benefitting from second choice votes.

So what will happen? It still depends on who shows up. But the night before the evening that the caucuses commence, the signs point to Obama, then Edwards, then Hillary. The story will be (as I suggested before) that the young voters gave Obama the victory, or the tried and true older voters plus women came through for Hillary, or John Edwards' tireless campaigning inspired working people to go to the caucuses in droves and send a message.

As for immediate consequences, if Obama wins, he's going to surge in New Hampshire and could win there, and then it will be a matter of whether Hillary or Edwards can stop him in the super primaries. Of the three, he is likely to benefit most from a victory longterm, especially if it is as solid as the Register poll suggests.

If Edwards wins, it's big for him, because it's now unexpected. But he still has a big mountain to climb, beginning with New Hampshire.

If Hillary wins, it's very big for her, because it reinstates her as the favorite. It's all about momentum going into New Hampshire. Obama is still going to be strong in New Hampshire, but if she wins there, it will really look like she's back.

There are a couple of other elements to look for. If Obama wins, it very well could mean voters want a new face. If it's Hillary, then it could be that the reassurance of experience trumps all--or that women are still behind her, and could carry her to ultimate victory. If Edwards wins, then his take no prisoners, populist/progressive Democratic message may be resonating with voters who are feeling economically insecure, and angry.

On the Republican side I'm sticking with my original prediction: Romney, Huckabee, McCain. If McCain places, he'll hold on to his New Hampshire lead. If Romney wins, he might be able to catch up to McCain in New Hampshire, and if not, he's got the bucks to keep going for Tsunami Tuesday in February. If Huckabee wins, that's expected right now, and it won't do him much good in New Hampshire, where he's still a long shot. He could win in the South, though, and stay alive for February. If he loses, he's in trouble, and he's got no money or organization or apparently staff to campaign in other states.

If this isn't complicated enough for you, here's a piece that speculates that an Obama victory in Iowa could lead to a long fight for delegates which would eventually mean the nominee will be...Al Gore.

As for me, I'll live with whoever wins in the long run. But I hope Obama wins in Iowa. Right now it's very likely I'll vote for him in California. I've seen the progressive blog spin (spinning wildly towards Edwards and even back to Hillary) but I've seen excerpts of his speeches of the last few days in Iowa, and if anyone currently in the race can bring the kind of change this nation and this world desperately need, it's Barack Obama. I don't expect to agree with his every position or comment. I mean, the only health care plan that makes any sense to me is Kucinich's. But there are tides in the affairs of humans, and this time they affect the planet. Obama looks like the man of the hour to me.

On a site/personal note, I had hoped that this obsession/addiction with presidential electoral politics would be gone by now, but in fact it seems to have gotten worse. I paid little attention to Iowa in 2004; I was just waiting to see who emerged. But I don't want to clutter this site with too much of this inside politics stuff. So when I need to work off my obsession, I'll post at my recently revived American Dash site. That was my first blog (called several different things over the years) and it's got quite an archive of posts, going back to 2002. I'm still working on tagging them all with "labels" so they can be searched according to topic. But if you're interested in my blatherings on this kind of thing, bookmark that site and check there. Although I'm sure I'll bring up the subject again around here from time to time.