An Election Like No Other?

The 2008 US Presidential election is shaping up to be both unusual and unusually crucial--perhaps the most unusual and the most crucial ever.

On the unusual front: Senator Hillary Clinton has solidified her status as frontrunner for the Democratic nomination with preference poll leads that continue to be strong, while her performances in several debates have been generally lauded above all other participants. However, figures which will become official later today are likely to show that Barack Obama, not faring as well in the polls or in reviews of his debate performances, has raised more campaign contributions than Senator Clinton for the second straight quarter--perhaps a third more. More in fact than anyone has raised, and possibly in larger numbers of smaller donations.

There are moreover a couple of very troubling elements to the preference polls for Senator Clinton. Her "negatives" have always been unusually high with samplings of the general electorate, and now Political Wire reports there is a new Mason-Dixon survey that shows Sen. Hillary Clinton "is the only major presidential candidate -- either Democrat and Republican -- for whom a majority of likely general election voters say they would not consider voting. In addition, she's the only candidate who registers with a net-unfavorable rating."

Clinton's lead within the Democratic party for the primaries seems predicated on superior support from women, but their predominance is not reflected outside the party. Independents, for example, which now make up 30% to 40% of the electorate, according to a Washington Post poll: mirror the population in terms of age, income and education. But they are disproportionately male. A majority of independents are men, while a majority of Democrats are women and the GOP is typically divided evenly between men and women.

Several polls show that Independents are leaning Democratic this year, and this poll suggests the majority are with Democrats on health care, the Climate Crisis and domestic issues, as well as on ending the Iraq war. But Senator Clinton's negatives are high, while Senator Obama's are the lowest among presidential candidates.

The incredibly low approval rating for President Bush was exceeded in recent polls only by the historically low approval rating for Congress, where the Democrats have a slim majority. This as well as other factors (nervousness about Clinton's electability, and general dissatisfaction among Republicans for their declared candidates) fueled interest in New York Mayor Bloomberg's recent switch from a Republican registration to Independent (he'd previously switched from Democrat to Republican), especially as it positions him for a possible Independent run for the Presidency. Some suggest a Bloomberg candidacy would take more votes from the Democrat than the Republican candidate, though others believe the opposite. But the mantra of the stories about this were that Bloomberg won't run unless and until he believes he has a good chance to actually win.

But he'll have to factor this in: a CNN poll (also reported by Political Wire) suggests that voter impatience with the Democrats in Congress (especially with their "failure" to end the Iraq war) does not mean the electorate wants Republicans back in control. A majority still favors a Democratic Congress, and this suggests that voters may well support a Democrat for President even if they aren't entirely happy with the nominee.

There's a Clinton conundrum within the Democratic party as well. There was a fair amount of surprise at a poll that showed New Hampshire Democrats currently favor Senator Clinton, with Senator Obama a fairly distant second--but that if Al Gore were to run, he would beat everybody, taking nearly a third of Clinton's votes as well as votes from the other candidates. However, the aforementioned Washington Post study shows that the only name that got higher negative response from Independents than Clinton was Gore.

As for the crucial nature of this election, it is increasingly clear that continuing the Iraq war could result in political anarchy, and related Bush administration policies in the area of torture, constitutional rights and political corruption threaten the foundations of our Constitutional government. Couple that with the rapidly failing health care system, and most importantly for the future, the Climate Crisis and the need to assert leadership and take action immediately when the new President takes office--it becomes abundantly clear that this nation cannot afford the mistakes it made in 2000 and 2004. The 2008 election looks increasingly like the last best chance for the national and the human future.